Dodgers CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 90 games played · View MLB standings →
-9
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Dodgers are getting what their run differential deserves. 59 wins vs 61.6 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
59
Wins
Expected: 61.6
481
Runs Scored
315
Runs Allowed
2.6
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 12 · 2026-04-08 · vs Blue Jays · away
4-3
Lost away against Blue Jays
Lost 3-4 to Blue Jays. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
3
Runs
4
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm12 · 2026-04-08 · vs Blue Jays · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Blue Jays. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 3-4
Gm20 · 2026-04-18 · vs Rockies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Rockies (8-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4
Gm58 · 2026-05-30 · vs Phillies · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Phillies (9-6 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm89 · 2026-07-03 · vs Padres · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Padres (5-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm81 · 2026-06-24 · vs Twins · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Twins (10-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm76 · 2026-06-19 · vs Orioles · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Orioles (12-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-11.2
One-Run Game Record
15-11 in one-run games (58% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+6.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5.9
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.58 vs xERA 3.84 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+5
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.345 vs xwOBA 0.349 - hard contact not converting into hits
-3.5
Total CLS-9
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|72 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Dodgers are right where they belong. Their CLS of -9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 24th in the league - a favorable stretch.