Dodgers

Dodgers CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 50 games played · View MLB standings →

-15
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Dodgers are getting what their run differential deserves. 31 wins vs 35.3 expected — the baseball gods are neutral. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-15.2 CLS impact). 4 fewer wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

31
Wins
Expected: 35.3
257
Runs Scored
159
Runs Allowed
4.3
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 12 · 2026-04-08 · vs Blue Jays · away
4-3
Lost away against Blue Jays

Lost 3-4 to Blue Jays. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.

3
Runs
4
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm12 · 2026-04-08 · vs Blue Jays · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Blue Jays. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 3-4
Gm20 · 2026-04-18 · vs Rockies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Rockies (8-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4
Gm21 · 2026-04-19 · vs Rockies · Away-0.3 pts
Lost 6-9 to Rockies (15-15 H). Rockies were the better team on the day.
Score: 6-9

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm49 · 2026-05-19 · vs Padres · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Padres (6-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm29 · 2026-04-27 · vs Marlins · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Marlins (8-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm13 · 2026-04-10 · vs Rangers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 8-7 against Rangers (15-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 8-7

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-15.2
Pitching Luck
ERA 2.99 vs xERA 3.54 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+7.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.342 vs xwOBA 0.351 - hard contact not converting into hits
-4.5
One-Run Game Record
6-7 in one-run games (46% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-1.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.2
Total CLS-15

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|112 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -15, Dodgers are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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05-24
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