Dodgers CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 131 games played · View MLB standings →
-10
CLS Score
11th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Dodgers are getting what their run differential deserves. 79 wins vs 80 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
79
Wins
Expected: 80
649
Runs Scored
502
Runs Allowed
1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 99 · 2026-07-18 · vs Yankees · away
0-0
Lost away against Yankees
Shut out by Yankees 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm99 · 2026-07-18 · vs Yankees · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Yankees 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm12 · 2026-04-08 · vs Blue Jays · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Blue Jays. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 3-4
Gm20 · 2026-04-18 · vs Rockies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Rockies (8-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm131 · 2026-08-22 · vs Pirates · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Pirates (7-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm130 · 2026-08-21 · vs Pirates · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 in 10 innings against Pirates (6-8 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 5-4
Gm128 · 2026-08-18 · vs Rockies · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Rockies. 2 Rockies errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 7-6
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
One-Run Game Record
26-18 in one-run games (59% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+13
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.333 vs xwOBA 0.338 - hard contact not converting into hits
-10.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-8.2
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-3.3
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.74 vs xERA 3.76 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
-1
Total CLS-10
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|31 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Dodgers are right where they belong. Their CLS of -10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).