ATL

Atletico Madrid CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+15
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Atletico Madrid are getting roughly what they deserve. 16 points vs 12.59 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one. Top driver: Finishing Luck (+7.1 CLS impact). Scored 4 more goals than their 12.0 xG - clinical finishing

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

16
Points
Expected: 12.59
16
Goals Scored
xG: 12.04
7
Goals Conceded
xGA: 7.11
3.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-05 · vs Athletic Club · away
0-3
Lost away against Athletic Club

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.1 points for Atletico Madrid. They got 0. That's 1.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
46'N. Williams scores for Athletic Club
48'R. Navarro scores for Athletic Club (assist: I. Williams)
90'O. Sancet scores for Athletic Club
1.02
xG Created
1.41
Opp. xG
-1.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-05 · vs Athletic Club · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.02-1.41
MW6 · 2026-09-16 · vs Osasuna · Home+0.3 pts
Won 4-0 home. xG: 4.0-0.5.
Score: 4-0 | xG: 3.99-0.48
MW7 · 2026-09-20 · vs Real Madrid · Home+0.4 pts
Won 2-1 home. xG: 2.4-0.3.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.35-0.3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-08-29 · vs Sevilla · Away+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.93-0.9
MW1 · 2026-08-19 · vs Malaga · Home+1.0 pts
Won 2-0 home. xG: 0.9-0.1.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.92-0.15
MW2 · 2026-08-23 · vs Villarreal · Home+0.8 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 0.8-3.6.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 0.78-3.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 12.0 xG - clinical finishing
+7.1
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.7
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 7.1 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+0.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (34 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
0
Total CLS+15

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Atletico Madrid are right where they belong. Their CLS of +15 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).

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