ATL

Atletico Madrid CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+40
CLS Score

Atletico Madrid have been living on borrowed time. 57 points from 47.76 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

57
Points
Expected: 47.76
51
Goals Scored
xG: 46.96
32
Goals Conceded
xGA: 37.28
9.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2025-09-21 · vs Mallorca · away
1-1
Drew away against Mallorca

A draw that felt like a loss. Atletico Madrid created 2.26 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Mallorca generated just 0.6 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Atletico Madrid. They got 1. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
72'Alexander Sørloth (Atletico Madrid) - Red Card
79'C. Gallagher scores for Atletico Madrid
85'V. Muriqi scores for Mallorca (assist: J. Virgili)
2.26
xG Created
0.6
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-21 · vs Mallorca · Away-1.4 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.26-0.6
MW23 · 2026-02-08 · vs Real Betis · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.67-0.7
MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Espanyol · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.1-1.26

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW10 · 2025-10-27 · vs Real Betis · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.6-1.07
MW18 · 2025-12-21 · vs Girona · Away+1.8 pts
Won 3-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 0.9-1.06
MW17 · 2025-12-13 · vs Valencia · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.01-1.17

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+15.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 47.0 xG - clinical finishing
+7.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (93 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+6.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 37.3 xGA opponents generated
+5.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+5.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.1
Total CLS+40

Rank Per Signal

Where Atletico Madrid ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

11
Discipline
1
20
-0.1
11
Schedule Strength
1
20
-0.1
14
Finishing Luck
1
20
+7.3
17
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+5.2
17
Injury Burden
1
20
+6.2
18
xPTS Gap
1
20
+15.8
18
Defensive Luck
1
20
+5.7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Atletico Madrid are riding their luck at +40. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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