ATL

Atletico Madrid CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 3 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+17
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Atletico Madrid have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Finishing Luck (+7.6 CLS impact). Scored 4 more goals than their 2.6 xG - clinical finishing

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 3.61
7
Goals Scored
xG: 2.63
3
Goals Conceded
xGA: 4.65
3.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-23 · vs Villarreal · at home
2-2
Drew at home against Villarreal

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.2 points for Atletico Madrid. They got 1. That's 0.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
59'M. Pubill scores for Atletico Madrid (assist: G. Simeone)
66'G. Moreno scores for Villarreal
76'Robin Le Normand (Atletico Madrid) - Red Card
78'G. Mikautadze scores for Villarreal
85'G. Simeone scores for Atletico Madrid (assist: A. Baena)
0.78
xG Created
3.6
Opp. xG
0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-23 · vs Villarreal · Home+0.8 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 0.8-3.6.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 0.78-3.6
MW1 · 2026-08-19 · vs Malaga · Home+1.0 pts
Won 2-0 home. xG: 0.9-0.1.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.92-0.15
MW3 · 2026-08-29 · vs Sevilla · Away+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.93-0.9

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-08-29 · vs Sevilla · Away+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.93-0.9
MW1 · 2026-08-19 · vs Malaga · Home+1.0 pts
Won 2-0 home. xG: 0.9-0.1.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.92-0.15
MW2 · 2026-08-23 · vs Villarreal · Home+0.8 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 0.8-3.6.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 0.78-3.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 2.6 xG - clinical finishing
+7.6
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 4.7 xGA opponents generated
+2.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (23 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.3
Total CLS+17

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|35 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Atletico Madrid are riding their luck at +17. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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