ATL

Atletico Madrid CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+52
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Atletico Madrid have been living on borrowed time. 69 points from 57.38 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+19.2 CLS impact). 12 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

69
Points
Expected: 57.38
61
Goals Scored
xG: 57.81
39
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.55
11.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 35 · 2026-05-09 · vs Celta Vigo · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Celta Vigo

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Atletico Madrid created 2.18 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Celta Vigo created almost nothing - just 0.13 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.7 points for Atletico Madrid. They got 0. That's 2.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
62'B. Iglesias scores for Celta Vigo (assist: W. Swedberg)
2.18
xG Created
0.13
Opp. xG
-2.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW35 · 2026-05-09 · vs Celta Vigo · Home-2.7 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.18-0.13
MW5 · 2025-09-21 · vs Mallorca · Away-1.4 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.26-0.6
MW23 · 2026-02-08 · vs Real Betis · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.67-0.7

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW10 · 2025-10-27 · vs Real Betis · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.6-1.07
MW36 · 2026-05-12 · vs Osasuna · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.56-2.3
MW18 · 2025-12-21 · vs Girona · Away+1.8 pts
Won 3-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 0.9-1.06

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
12 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+19.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 fewer goals than the 46.5 xGA opponents generated
+8.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+7.6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+7.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 57.8 xG - clinical finishing
+5.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (127 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.1
Total CLS+52

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: improving|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +52, Atletico Madrid are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches
05-24
A
Villarreal
Bet