Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta Hawks CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+14
CLS Score
12th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Hawks are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 46 wins vs 45.4 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

46
Wins
Expected: 45.4
9714
Points For
9516
Points Against
0.6
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 16 · 2025-11-21 · vs Spurs · away
135-126
Lost away against Spurs

Lost 126-135 to San Antonio Spurs despite winning the efficiency battle 68% to 62% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

67.8%
Team eFG%
62.1%
Opp. eFG%
-0.7
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm16 · 2025-11-21 · vs Spurs · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 126-135 to San Antonio Spurs despite winning the efficiency battle 68% to 62% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 126-135 | eFG%: 67.8-62.1
Gm22 · 2025-12-02 · vs Pistons · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 98-99 to Detroit Pistons shooting just 51% eFG (-4.9 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 98-99 | eFG%: 50.6-47.1
Gm33 · 2025-12-28 · vs Knicks · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 125-128 to New York Knicks in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 125-128 | eFG%: 57.9-53.2

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm66 · 2026-03-12 · vs Nets · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Brooklyn Nets 108-97 despite being outshot 46% to 56% eFG. Brooklyn Nets were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 108-97 | eFG%: 46.1-55.6
Gm60 · 2026-02-25 · vs Wizards · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 119-98 despite being outshot 45% to 50% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 119-98 | eFG%: 44.9-50
Gm25 · 2025-12-07 · vs Wizards · Away+0.6 pts
Beat Washington Wizards 131-116 on hot shooting (60% eFG, +4.3 above season average).
Score: 131-116 | eFG%: 59.7-61.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Off 3P Luck
Made 37 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (37.1% vs league)
+4.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+4.5
Close Game Record
75% win rate in 4 close games (+0.0 avg margin)
+3.7
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.4% FT vs league average — 22 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-2.8
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 13 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.5% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+2.3
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+2
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 19 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.4% vs league)
-0.6
Off 2P Luck
Made 7 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.2% vs league)
+0.3
Total CLS+14

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Hawks are right where they belong. Their CLS of +14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available