Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta Hawks CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+16
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Hawks have had fortune on their side in close games. The CLS says they're winning more than their underlying performance warrants. Not extreme, but don't bet on the streak lasting. Top driver: Injury Burden (+6.4 CLS impact). High injury burden (2 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

46
Wins
Expected: 45.4
9714
Points For
9516
Points Against
0.6
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 16 · 2025-11-21 · vs Spurs · away
135-126
Lost away against Spurs

Lost 126-135 to San Antonio Spurs despite winning the efficiency battle 68% to 62% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

67.8%
Team eFG%
62.1%
Opp. eFG%
-0.7
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm16 · 2025-11-21 · vs Spurs · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 126-135 to San Antonio Spurs despite winning the efficiency battle 68% to 62% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 126-135 | eFG%: 67.8-62.1
Gm22 · 2025-12-02 · vs Pistons · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 98-99 to Detroit Pistons shooting just 51% eFG (-4.9 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 98-99 | eFG%: 50.6-47.1
Gm33 · 2025-12-28 · vs Knicks · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 125-128 to New York Knicks in a 3-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 125-128 | eFG%: 57.9-53.2

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm66 · 2026-03-12 · vs Nets · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Brooklyn Nets 108-97 despite being outshot 46% to 56% eFG. Brooklyn Nets were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 108-97 | eFG%: 46.1-55.6
Gm60 · 2026-02-25 · vs Wizards · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Washington Wizards 119-98 despite being outshot 45% to 50% eFG. Washington Wizards were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 119-98 | eFG%: 44.9-50
Gm25 · 2025-12-07 · vs Wizards · Away+0.6 pts
Beat Washington Wizards 131-116 on hot shooting (60% eFG, +4.3 above season average).
Score: 131-116 | eFG%: 59.7-61.9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (2 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+6.4
Off 3P Luck
Made 37 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (37.1% vs league)
+5.4
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 79.4% FT vs league average — 22 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-3.3
Close Game Record
67% win rate in 3 close games (-0.3 avg margin)
+2.9
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 13 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.5% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+2.7
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+2.3
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 19 more 2s than league-avg would predict (55.4% vs league)
-0.8
Off 2P Luck
Made 7 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.2% vs league)
+0.4
Total CLS+16

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Hawks are riding their luck at +16. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available