Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta Hawks Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+5
Luck Index Score

Atlanta Hawks are getting roughly what they deserve. 45 points vs 45.2 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

45
Wins
Expected: 45.2
9252
Points For
Expected: 45.2
9041
Points Against
0.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 22 · 2025-12-02 · vs Detroit Pistons · away
98-99
Lost away against Detroit Pistons

One of those games where nothing went right. Atlanta Hawks created 98 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 98 goals on an average day. They scored 98. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Atlanta Hawks. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

98
xG Created
99
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW22 · 2025-12-02 · vs Detroit Pistons · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 98-99 to Detroit Pistons. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 98-99 | xG: 98-99
MW24 · 2025-12-06 · vs Denver Nuggets · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 133-134 to Denver Nuggets. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 133-134 | xG: 133-134
MW30 · 2025-12-21 · vs Chicago Bulls · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 150-152 to Chicago Bulls. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 150-152 | xG: 150-152

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW73 · 2026-03-25 · vs Detroit Pistons · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Detroit Pistons 130-129. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 130-129 | xG: 130-129
MW53 · 2026-02-06 · vs Utah Jazz · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Utah Jazz 121-119. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 121-119 | xG: 121-119
MW46 · 2026-01-22 · vs Memphis Grizzlies · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Memphis Grizzlies 124-122. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 124-122 | xG: 124-122

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 0.9% above expected from shot locations (55.4% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
+7
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-2
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts
0
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
0
Total Luck Index+5

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics
52W-25L
-31Unlucky
#4 in league
Miami Heat
Miami Heat
40W-37L
-35Unlucky
#17 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Atlanta Hawks are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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