Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+30
CLS Score
9th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Celtics have had fortune on their side in close games. The CLS says they're winning more than their underlying performance warrants. Not extreme, but don't bet on the streak lasting. Top driver: Injury Burden (+6.8 CLS impact). High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

56
Wins
Expected: 54.2
9418
Points For
8787
Points Against
1.8
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 2 · 2025-10-24 · vs Knicks · away
105-95
Lost away against Knicks

Lost to New York Knicks 95-105. Shot 52% eFG vs their 48%.

51.8%
Team eFG%
48.3%
Opp. eFG%
-0.7
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm2 · 2025-10-24 · vs Knicks · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to New York Knicks 95-105. Shot 52% eFG vs their 48%.
Score: 95-105 | eFG%: 51.8-48.3
Gm3 · 2025-10-26 · vs Pistons · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 113-119 to Detroit Pistons shooting just 51% eFG (-4.8 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 113-119 | eFG%: 50.5-46.8
Gm38 · 2026-01-11 · vs Spurs · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 95-100 to San Antonio Spurs shooting just 49% eFG (-5.9 below season avg). Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 95-100 | eFG%: 49.5-45.3

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm35 · 2026-01-06 · vs Bulls · Home+0.7 pts
Beat Chicago Bulls 115-101. Shot 50% eFG vs their 53%.
Score: 115-101 | eFG%: 50-53.5
Gm6 · 2025-10-31 · vs 76ers · Away+0.7 pts
Stole it from Philadelphia 76ers 109-108 despite being outshot 50% to 56% eFG. Philadelphia 76ers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 109-108 | eFG%: 50.5-55.8
Gm70 · 2026-03-21 · vs Grizzlies · Away+0.6 pts
Beat Memphis Grizzlies 117-112. Shot 51% eFG vs their 54%.
Score: 117-112 | eFG%: 51.1-54.4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+6.8
Close Game Record
67% win rate in 3 close games (+2.7 avg margin)
+5.9
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+5.3
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 153 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (51.1% vs league)
+5.3
Off 3P Luck
Made 25 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (36.7% vs league)
+3.2
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.5% FT vs league average — 14 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+1.8
Off 2P Luck
Made 20 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.5% vs league)
+0.9
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 5 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.8% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+0.8
Total CLS+30

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Celtics are riding their luck at +30. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available