Miami Heat

Miami Heat CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+5
CLS Score

Miami Heat are getting roughly what their point differential says they deserve. 43 wins vs 43.4 expected — neutral territory.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

43
Wins
Expected: 43.4
9911
Points For
9720
Points Against
0.4
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2025-12-06 · vs Orlando Magic · away
105-106
Lost away against Orlando Magic

Lost 105-106 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 54% to 48% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

54.4%
Team eFG%
47.8%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2025-12-06 · vs Orlando Magic · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 105-106 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 54% to 48% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 105-106 | eFG%: 54.4-47.8
MW39 · 2026-01-12 · vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 112-124 to Oklahoma City Thunder despite winning the efficiency battle 64% to 56% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 112-124 | eFG%: 64-55.9
MW8 · 2025-11-06 · vs Denver Nuggets · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Denver Nuggets 112-122. Shot 52% eFG vs their 48%.
Score: 112-122 | eFG%: 52.3-48

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW42 · 2026-01-18 · vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Home+1.0 pts
Stole it from Oklahoma City Thunder 122-120 despite being outshot 46% to 63% eFG. Oklahoma City Thunder were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 122-120 | eFG%: 45.9-63
MW67 · 2026-03-12 · vs Milwaukee Bucks · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Milwaukee Bucks 112-105 despite being outshot 49% to 55% eFG. Milwaukee Bucks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 112-105 | eFG%: 48.9-54.8
MW56 · 2026-02-12 · vs New Orleans Pelicans · Away+0.7 pts
Beat New Orleans Pelicans 123-111. Shot 48% eFG vs their 52%.
Score: 123-111 | eFG%: 48-51.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (84 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+7.4
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-2.4
Total CLS+5

Rank Per Signal

Where Miami Heat ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

13
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
-2.4
29
Injury Burden
1
30
+7.4

Tank Watch

Competing (0/100)

Miami Heat have been consistently poor all season, but there's no second-half decline. Bad, not tanking.

First Half
21-20
0.5% win rate
Second Half
22-19
0.5% win rate
Win rate decline
-0pp
Close game collapse
0pp
Point differential decline
-1.5pts/game
Late losing streaks
1 losing streak
Roster turnover (2H)
6%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Miami Heat are right where they belong. Their CLS of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available