Miami Heat

Miami Heat CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-17
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Heat can't seem to close games. 43 wins when their point differential predicts closer to 43.4. Not catastrophic, but the margins have consistently fallen the wrong way. Expect positive regression. Top driver: Injury Burden (-10.6 CLS impact). High injury burden (5 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

43
Wins
Expected: 43.4
9911
Points For
9720
Points Against
0.4
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 23 · 2025-12-06 · vs Magic · away
106-105
Lost away against Magic

Lost 105-106 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 54% to 48% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

54.4%
Team eFG%
47.8%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm23 · 2025-12-06 · vs Magic · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 105-106 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 54% to 48% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 105-106 | eFG%: 54.4-47.8
Gm39 · 2026-01-12 · vs Thunder · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 112-124 to Oklahoma City Thunder despite winning the efficiency battle 64% to 56% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 112-124 | eFG%: 64-55.9
Gm8 · 2025-11-06 · vs Nuggets · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Denver Nuggets 112-122. Shot 52% eFG vs their 48%.
Score: 112-122 | eFG%: 52.3-48

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm42 · 2026-01-18 · vs Thunder · Home+1.0 pts
Stole it from Oklahoma City Thunder 122-120 despite being outshot 46% to 63% eFG. Oklahoma City Thunder were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 122-120 | eFG%: 45.9-63
Gm67 · 2026-03-12 · vs Bucks · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Milwaukee Bucks 112-105 despite being outshot 49% to 55% eFG. Milwaukee Bucks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 112-105 | eFG%: 48.9-54.8
Gm56 · 2026-02-12 · vs Pelicans · Away+0.7 pts
Beat New Orleans Pelicans 123-111. Shot 48% eFG vs their 52%.
Score: 123-111 | eFG%: 48-51.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (5 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-10.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 80.4% FT vs league average — 38 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-6.3
Off 2P Luck
Made 39 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (54.2% vs league)
-2.3
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 34 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (54.2% vs league)
+1.5
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-1
Off 3P Luck
Made 6 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (36.1% vs league)
+0.9
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 3 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.9% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+0.8
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS-17

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -17, Heat are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 0 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available