Miami Heat

Miami Heat CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-13
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Heat are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 43 wins vs 43.4 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

43
Wins
Expected: 43.4
9911
Points For
9720
Points Against
0.4
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 23 · 2025-12-06 · vs Magic · away
106-105
Lost away against Magic

Lost 105-106 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 54% to 48% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

54.4%
Team eFG%
47.8%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm23 · 2025-12-06 · vs Magic · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 105-106 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 54% to 48% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 105-106 | eFG%: 54.4-47.8
Gm39 · 2026-01-12 · vs Thunder · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 112-124 to Oklahoma City Thunder despite winning the efficiency battle 64% to 56% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 112-124 | eFG%: 64-55.9
Gm8 · 2025-11-06 · vs Nuggets · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Denver Nuggets 112-122. Shot 52% eFG vs their 48%.
Score: 112-122 | eFG%: 52.3-48

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm42 · 2026-01-18 · vs Thunder · Home+1.0 pts
Stole it from Oklahoma City Thunder 122-120 despite being outshot 46% to 63% eFG. Oklahoma City Thunder were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 122-120 | eFG%: 45.9-63
Gm67 · 2026-03-12 · vs Bucks · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Milwaukee Bucks 112-105 despite being outshot 49% to 55% eFG. Milwaukee Bucks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 112-105 | eFG%: 48.9-54.8
Gm56 · 2026-02-12 · vs Pelicans · Away+0.7 pts
Beat New Orleans Pelicans 123-111. Shot 48% eFG vs their 52%.
Score: 123-111 | eFG%: 48-51.6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Game Record
0% win rate in 3 close games (-2.0 avg margin)
-8.4
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 80.4% FT vs league average — 38 extra makes against them (pure luck, defense has no control)
-4.8
Off 2P Luck
Made 39 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (54.2% vs league)
-1.8
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 34 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (54.2% vs league)
+1.2
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-0.8
Off 3P Luck
Made 6 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (36.1% vs league)
+0.7
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 3 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.9% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+0.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+0.3
Total CLS-13

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Heat are right where they belong. Their CLS of -13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available