Burnley

Burnley CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Premier League standings →

-20
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Burnley can't catch a break. 21 points when the data says they deserve closer to 27.18? 24 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-8.5 CLS impact). 6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

21
Points
Expected: 27.18
37
Goals Scored
xG: 31.54
74
Goals Conceded
xGA: 72.96
6.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 14 · 2025-12-03 · vs Crystal Palace · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Crystal Palace

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Burnley. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
44'D. Munoz scores for Crystal Palace (assist: M. Guehi)
0.95
xG Created
0.59
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW14 · 2025-12-03 · vs Crystal Palace · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.95-0.59
MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs West Ham · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.34-1.02
MW16 · 2025-12-13 · vs Fulham · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.46-2.23

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Leeds · Home+2.8 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.45-2.63
MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Crystal Palace · Away+2.5 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.53-1.8
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Wolves · Away+2.1 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.43-2.28

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-8.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 more goals than their 31.5 xG - clinical finishing
+8.3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-6.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (192 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 73.0 xGA opponents generated
-1.8
Total CLS-20

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -20, Burnley are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 6 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
05-24
H
Wolves
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
19
of 20
No change from current 19
Projected Points
22
from 21 now (+1 remaining)
Pace
0.73
expected pts per game · 1 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 1 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Burnley has scored 5 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Anthony MID£5.02.0%85.1+2.9Overperforming xG — sell candidate
A.Ramsey MID£4.41.4%00.00.0Finishing in line with xG
Barnes FWD£4.21.2%00.1-0.1Finishing in line with xG
Cullen MID£4.90.8%20.9+1.1Finishing in line with xG
Foster FWD£4.90.7%33.2-0.2Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).