Burnley

Burnley CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-16
CLS Score

Burnley can't catch a break. 20 points when the data says they deserve closer to 24.21? 21 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

20
Points
Expected: 24.21
34
Goals Scored
xG: 28.4
67
Goals Conceded
xGA: 65.5
4.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 14 · 2025-12-03 · vs Crystal Palace · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Crystal Palace

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Burnley. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
44'D. Munoz scores for Crystal Palace (assist: M. Guehi)
0.95
xG Created
0.59
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW14 · 2025-12-03 · vs Crystal Palace · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.95-0.59
MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs West Ham · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.34-1.02
MW16 · 2025-12-13 · vs Fulham · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.46-2.23

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Leeds · Home+2.8 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.45-2.63
MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Crystal Palace · Away+2.5 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.53-1.8
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Wolves · Away+2.1 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.43-2.28

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 28.4 xG - clinical finishing
+9.5
xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (185 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 65.5 xGA opponents generated
-2.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.5
Total CLS-16

Rank Per Signal

Where Burnley ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-6
2
Discipline
1
20
-3
5
Injury Burden
1
20
-5.4
8
xPTS Gap
1
20
-6
8
Defensive Luck
1
20
-2.6
9
Schedule Strength
1
20
-2.5
17
Finishing Luck
1
20
+9.5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -16, Burnley are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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