Burnley Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-6

Luck Index Score

Burnley are getting roughly what they deserve. 20 points vs 22.83 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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20

Points

Expected: 22.83

33

Goals Scored

xG: 27.14

61

Goals Conceded

xGA: 62.41

2.8

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 16 · 2025-12-13 · vs Fulham · at home

2-3

Lost at home against Fulham

One of those games where nothing went right. Burnley created 2.46 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Burnley. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

44'D. Munoz scores for Crystal Palace (assist: M. Guehi)

2.46

xG Created

2.23

Opp. xG

-1.5

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW14 · 2025-12-03 · vs Crystal Palace · Home-1.6 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.95-0.59

MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs West Ham · Home-1.6 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.34-1.02

MW16 · 2025-12-13 · vs Fulham · Home-1.5 pts

Lost 2-3 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.46-2.23

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Leeds · Home+2.8 pts

Won 2-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.45-2.63

MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Crystal Palace · Away+2.5 pts

Won 3-2 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.53-1.8

MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Wolves · Away+2.1 pts

Won 3-2 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.43-2.28

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 6 more goals than their 27.1 xG - clinical finishing

+11

Injury Burden

High injury burden (171 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-6

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-5

xPTS Gap

3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-4

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-3

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 62.4 xGA opponents generated

+1

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

0

Total Luck Index-6

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

Why?

Burnley are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

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04-19

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04-26

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Manchester City

05-01

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Leeds

05-09

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Aston Villa

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