Leeds

Leeds CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Premier League standings →

+16
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Leeds have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+5.3 CLS impact). 4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

9
Points
Expected: 5.38
7
Goals Scored
xG: 1.93
3
Goals Conceded
xGA: 2.33
3.6
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Brentford · at home
1-1
Drew at home against Brentford

One of those games where nothing went right. Leeds generated 1.46 xG, comfortably more than the 1.67 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.3 points for Leeds. They got 1. That's 0.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
41'K. Schade scores for Brentford (assist: K. Lewis-Potter)
79'D. Calvert-Lewin scores for Leeds (assist: L. Nmecha)
1.46
xG Created
1.67
Opp. xG
-0.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Brentford · Home-0.3 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.5-1.7.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.46-1.67
MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Brighton · Away-0.0 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0-0
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Crystal Palace · Home-0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-14 · vs Newcastle · Home+2.0 pts
Won 4-1 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected. Read match report →
Score: 4-1 | xG: 0-0
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Nottingham Forest · Away+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.47-0.66
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Crystal Palace · Home+-0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0-0

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+5.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.7 fewer goals than the 2.3 xGA opponents generated
+2.9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (18 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 more goals than their 1.9 xG - clinical finishing
+2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.7
Total CLS+16

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Leeds are riding their luck at +16. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 13th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

Next Matches
10-10
A
Arsenal
Bet
10-18
H
Manchester United
Bet
10-25
A
Sunderland
Bet
10-31
A
Bournemouth
Bet
11-07
H
Tottenham
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
7
of 20
No change from current 7
Projected Points
54
from 9 now (+45 remaining)
Pace
1.08
expected pts per game · 33 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 33 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Leeds has scored 5 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Calvert-Lewin FWD£6.024.6%23.0-1.0Underperforming xG — buy the dip
Stach MID£6.02.5%11.0+0.0Finishing in line with xG
Wilson MID£6.21.6%00.0-0.0Finishing in line with xG
Ampadu MID£5.40.9%00.1-0.1Finishing in line with xG
Aaronson MID£5.30.5%00.0-0.0Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).