Leeds Luck Index
2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →
Leeds are the definition of "we deserved more." With 33 points from 43.37 expected, they've been robbed of 10.37 points this season. 12 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 6 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Leeds created 2.63 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Burnley created almost nothing - just 0.45 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Leeds. They got 0. That's 2.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
What to Expect Next
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsAt -35, Leeds are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 10 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.