Leeds CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 season · 38 matches played · View Premier League standings →
Leeds can't catch a break. 47 points when the data says they deserve closer to 53.6? 13 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (+9.7 CLS impact). Low injury burden (96 player-games missed) - squad depth available
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Leeds created 2.63 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Burnley created almost nothing - just 0.45 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Leeds. They got 0. That's 2.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsAt -16, Leeds are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 7 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. Recent form suggests the tide is already turning.
No upcoming fixtures available
Projected Finish
Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 0 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.
Fantasy Outlook
Most-Owned Attackers
| Player | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvert-Lewin FWD | £5.8 | 13.7% | 14 | 15.6 | -1.6 | Underperforming xG — buy the dip |
| Stach MID | £4.8 | 1.7% | 5 | 2.9 | +2.1 | Overperforming xG — sell candidate |
| Okafor MID | £5.5 | 0.9% | 8 | 5.3 | +2.8 | Overperforming xG — sell candidate |
| Aaronson MID | £5.4 | 0.8% | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Ampadu MID | £4.9 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | Underperforming xG — buy the dip |
Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).