Leeds

Leeds CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-29
CLS Score

Leeds can't catch a break. 39 points when the data says they deserve closer to 48.09? 12 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

39
Points
Expected: 48.09
42
Goals Scored
xG: 48.44
49
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.47
9.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Burnley · away
0-2
Lost away against Burnley

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Leeds created 2.63 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Burnley created almost nothing - just 0.45 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Leeds. They got 0. That's 2.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
18'L. Ugochukwu scores for Burnley (assist: K. Walker)
68'L. Tchaouna scores for Burnley (assist: Florentino)
2.63
xG Created
0.45
Opp. xG
-2.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Burnley · Away-2.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.63-0.45
MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Tottenham · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.68-0.53
MW29 · 2026-03-03 · vs Sunderland · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.15-0.86

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Wolves · Away+2.5 pts
Won 3-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.48-1.78
MW9 · 2025-10-24 · vs West Ham · Home+1.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.49-0.65
MW17 · 2025-12-20 · vs Crystal Palace · Home+1.0 pts
Won 4-1 home from 2.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 2.67-1.56

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
9 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-14.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (70 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+11.5
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-9.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 6 fewer goals than their 48.4 xG - wasting chances
-9.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-4.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 46.5 xGA opponents generated
-3.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.4
Total CLS-29

Rank Per Signal

Where Leeds ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Schedule Strength
1
20
-9.4
2
xPTS Gap
1
20
-14.4
3
Finishing Luck
1
20
-9.1
5
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-4.1
6
Defensive Luck
1
20
-3.9
11
Discipline
1
20
+0.4
20
Injury Burden
1
20
+11.5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -29, Leeds are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 9 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 14th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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