Cagliari

Cagliari Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

-2
Luck Index Score

Cagliari are getting roughly what they deserve. 30 points vs 32.69 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

30
Points
Expected: 32.69
32
Goals Scored
xG: 28.65
44
Goals Conceded
xGA: 43.83
2.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Sassuolo · away
1-2
Lost away against Sassuolo

A defeat that defied the run of play. Cagliari generated 1.63 xG, comfortably more than the 0.51 their opponent managed. Sassuolo generated just 0.51 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Cagliari. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
30'S. Esposito scores for Cagliari
50'U. Garcia scores for Sassuolo
78'A. Pinamonti scores for Sassuolo (assist: D. Bakola)
1.63
xG Created
0.51
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Sassuolo · Away-2.2 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.63-0.51
MW10 · 2025-11-03 · vs Lazio · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.51-0.69
MW20 · 2026-01-12 · vs Genoa · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.26-1.08

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Juventus · Home+2.6 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.11-1.35
MW17 · 2025-12-27 · vs Torino · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.77-1.6
MW3 · 2025-09-13 · vs Parma · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.13-1.96

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 28.6 xG - clinical finishing
+7.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.3
xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (132 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.9
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 43.8 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-1.2
Total Luck Index-2

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
7W-11D-13L
-44Cursed
#15 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cagliari are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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