Cagliari

Cagliari CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-6
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Cagliari are getting roughly what they deserve. 40 points vs 40.98 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

40
Points
Expected: 40.98
38
Goals Scored
xG: 35.65
52
Goals Conceded
xGA: 51.51
1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Sassuolo · away
1-2
Lost away against Sassuolo

A defeat that defied the run of play. Cagliari generated 1.63 xG, comfortably more than the 0.51 their opponent managed. Sassuolo generated just 0.51 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Cagliari. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
30'S. Esposito scores for Cagliari
50'U. Garcia scores for Sassuolo
78'A. Pinamonti scores for Sassuolo (assist: D. Bakola)
1.63
xG Created
0.51
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Sassuolo · Away-2.2 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.63-0.51
MW10 · 2025-11-03 · vs Lazio · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.51-0.69
MW20 · 2026-01-12 · vs Genoa · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.26-1.08

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Juventus · Home+2.6 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.11-1.35
MW17 · 2025-12-27 · vs Torino · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.77-1.6
MW3 · 2025-09-13 · vs Parma · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.13-1.96

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (179 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-7.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 35.6 xG - clinical finishing
+5.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.6
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 51.5 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-2.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.9
xPTS Gap
1.0 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.2
Total CLS-6

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
9W-15D-14L
-30Unlucky
#13 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cagliari are right where they belong. Their CLS of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches
05-24
A
AC Milan
Bet