Cagliari

Cagliari CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+16
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Cagliari have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+8.5 CLS impact). 6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

12
Points
Expected: 5.68
5
Goals Scored
xG: 5.47
2
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.79
6.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Inter · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Inter

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.1 points for Cagliari. They got 0. That's 0.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'H. Calhanoglu scores for Inter (assist: N. Barella)
0.48
xG Created
3.67
Opp. xG
-0.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Inter · Home-0.1 pts
Lost 0-1 home. xG: 0.5-3.7.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.48-3.67
MW3 · 2026-09-07 · vs Lecce · Home+0.8 pts
Won 1-0 home. xG: 1.6-0.5.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.61-0.5
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Parma · Away+1.5 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.94-0.75

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Udinese · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.12-2.13
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Atalanta · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.32-1.74
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Parma · Away+1.5 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.94-0.75

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+8.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 8.8 xGA opponents generated
+4.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.8
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 5.5 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-0.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (24 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.1
Total CLS+16

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
1W-1D-3L
-12Neutral
#14 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cagliari are riding their luck at +16. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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