Cagliari

Cagliari CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

-3
CLS Score

Cagliari are getting roughly what they deserve. 33 points vs 35.11 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

33
Points
Expected: 35.11
33
Goals Scored
xG: 30.23
47
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.34
2.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Sassuolo · away
1-2
Lost away against Sassuolo

A defeat that defied the run of play. Cagliari generated 1.63 xG, comfortably more than the 0.51 their opponent managed. Sassuolo generated just 0.51 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Cagliari. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
30'S. Esposito scores for Cagliari
50'U. Garcia scores for Sassuolo
78'A. Pinamonti scores for Sassuolo (assist: D. Bakola)
1.63
xG Created
0.51
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Sassuolo · Away-2.2 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.63-0.51
MW10 · 2025-11-03 · vs Lazio · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.51-0.69
MW20 · 2026-01-12 · vs Genoa · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.26-1.08

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Juventus · Home+2.6 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.11-1.35
MW17 · 2025-12-27 · vs Torino · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.77-1.6
MW3 · 2025-09-13 · vs Parma · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.13-1.96

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 30.2 xG - clinical finishing
+6.9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+5.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (139 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.7
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.7 more goals than the 46.3 xGA opponents generated
-2
Total CLS-3

Rank Per Signal

Where Cagliari ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-3.7
5
Discipline
1
20
-2.5
6
Defensive Luck
1
20
-2
7
xPTS Gap
1
20
-3.5
8
Injury Burden
1
20
-4.1
15
Finishing Luck
1
20
+6.9
16
Schedule Strength
1
20
+5.9

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
8W-12D-13L
-33Unlucky
#15 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cagliari are right where they belong. Their CLS of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 8th).

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