Fiorentina

Fiorentina CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

-33
CLS Score

Fiorentina can't catch a break. 36 points when the data says they deserve closer to 48.1? 13 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

36
Points
Expected: 48.1
38
Goals Scored
xG: 48.63
45
Goals Conceded
xGA: 43.29
12.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 15 · 2025-12-14 · vs Hellas Verona · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Hellas Verona

One of those games where nothing went right. Fiorentina generated 1.71 xG, comfortably more than the 0.94 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Fiorentina. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
42'G. Orban scores for Hellas Verona (assist: Al Musrati)
69'U. Nunez scores for Fiorentina
90'G. Orban scores for Hellas Verona (assist: A. Bernede)
1.71
xG Created
0.94
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW15 · 2025-12-14 · vs Hellas Verona · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.71-0.94
MW22 · 2026-01-24 · vs Cagliari · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.03-1.28
MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Bologna · Home-1.7 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 3.7 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 3.72-0.55

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Hellas Verona · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.36-0.99
MW32 · 2026-04-13 · vs Lazio · Home+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.61-1.33
MW29 · 2026-03-16 · vs Cremonese · Away+1.4 pts
Won 4-1 away from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 1.69-1.43

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
12 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-18.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 11 fewer goals than their 48.6 xG - wasting chances
-15.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+6.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 43.3 xGA opponents generated
-3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (116 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.2
Total CLS-33

Rank Per Signal

Where Fiorentina ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Finishing Luck
1
20
-15.7
3
xPTS Gap
1
20
-18.8
4
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-5
5
Defensive Luck
1
20
-3
12
Discipline
1
20
+1.2
13
Injury Burden
1
20
+1.7
17
Schedule Strength
1
20
+6.6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: improving|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -33, Fiorentina are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 12 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. Recent form suggests the tide is already turning.

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