Fiorentina Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

-44

Luck Index Score

Fiorentina are the definition of "we deserved more." With 32 points from 46.03 expected, they've been robbed this season. 11 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 11 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 46.03

Goals Scored

xG: 46.88

Goals Conceded

xGA: 40.7

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Bologna · at home

2-2

Drew at home against Bologna

A draw that felt like a loss. Fiorentina created 3.72 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 2. Bologna generated just 0.55 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.7 points for Fiorentina. They got 1. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

42'G. Orban scores for Hellas Verona (assist: Al Musrati)

69'U. Nunez scores for Fiorentina

90'G. Orban scores for Hellas Verona (assist: A. Bernede)

3.72

xG Created

0.55

Opp. xG

-1.7

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW15 · 2025-12-14 · vs Hellas Verona · Home-1.9 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.71-0.94

MW22 · 2026-01-24 · vs Cagliari · Home-1.9 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.03-1.28

MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Bologna · Home-1.7 pts

Drew 2-2 home despite 3.7 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.

Score: 2-2 | xG: 3.72-0.55

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Hellas Verona · Away+2.2 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.36-0.99

MW29 · 2026-03-16 · vs Cremonese · Away+1.4 pts

Won 4-1 away from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.

Score: 4-1 | xG: 1.69-1.43

MW21 · 2026-01-18 · vs Bologna · Away+1.3 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.73-1.27

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

14 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-24.1

Finishing Luck

Scored 11 fewer goals than their 46.9 xG - wasting chances

-20.2

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+7.4

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-6.9

Defensive Luck

Conceded 3 more goals than the 40.7 xGA opponents generated

-5

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (105 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+2.9

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+1.9

Total Luck Index-44

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Results Expected to Improve

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Fiorentina are deeply cursed at -44. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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