Fiorentina

Fiorentina CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-12
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Fiorentina are getting roughly what they deserve. 4 points vs 8.2 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

4
Points
Expected: 8.2
6
Goals Scored
xG: 8.6
12
Goals Conceded
xGA: 6.65
4.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Torino · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Torino

A defeat that defied the run of play. Fiorentina generated 1.67 xG, comfortably more than the 0.58 their opponent managed. Torino generated just 0.58 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Fiorentina. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
47'M. Pellegrino scores for Fiorentina (assist: R. Dragusin)
73'R. Mandragora scores for Torino (assist: E. Comert)
82'C. Adams scores for Torino (assist: R. Belghali)
1.67
xG Created
0.58
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Torino · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.67-0.58
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Frosinone · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 0-3 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 2.13-1.11
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Napoli · Home-0.2 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.1-1.4.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.14-1.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-11 · vs Venezia · Away+0.3 pts
Won 4-2 away. xG: 3.3-0.5.
Score: 4-2 | xG: 3.31-0.49
MW1 · 2026-08-24 · vs AS Roma · Away+-0.1 pts
Lost 0-4 away. xG: 0.3-3.1.
Score: 0-4 | xG: 0.35-3.07
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Napoli · Home+-0.2 pts
Drew 1-1 home. xG: 1.1-1.4.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.14-1.4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 8.6 xG - wasting chances
-5.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 6.7 xGA opponents generated
-3.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (13 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.4
Total CLS-12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Fiorentina are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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