Fiorentina

Fiorentina CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 38 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-30
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Fiorentina can't catch a break. 42 points when the data says they deserve closer to 53.36? 14 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-15.9 CLS impact). 11 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

42
Points
Expected: 53.36
41
Goals Scored
xG: 52.99
50
Goals Conceded
xGA: 50.47
11.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 15 · 2025-12-14 · vs Hellas Verona · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Hellas Verona

One of those games where nothing went right. Fiorentina generated 1.71 xG, comfortably more than the 0.94 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Fiorentina. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
42'G. Orban scores for Hellas Verona (assist: Al Musrati)
69'U. Nunez scores for Fiorentina
90'G. Orban scores for Hellas Verona (assist: A. Bernede)
1.71
xG Created
0.94
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW15 · 2025-12-14 · vs Hellas Verona · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.71-0.94
MW22 · 2026-01-24 · vs Cagliari · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.03-1.28
MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Bologna · Home-1.7 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 3.7 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 3.72-0.55

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Juventus · Away+2.6 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.47-1.98
MW31 · 2026-04-04 · vs Hellas Verona · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.36-0.99
MW32 · 2026-04-13 · vs Lazio · Home+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.61-1.33

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
11 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-15.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 12 fewer goals than their 53.0 xG - wasting chances
-14.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-4.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (128 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.9
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 50.5 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-1.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.5
Total CLS-30

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -30, Fiorentina are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 11 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available