Como

Como CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+25
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Como have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Injury Burden (+6.8 CLS impact). Low injury burden (115 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

68
Points
Expected: 64.73
61
Goals Scored
xG: 59.48
28
Goals Conceded
xGA: 32.84
3.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 32 · 2026-04-12 · vs Inter · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Inter

A defeat that defied the run of play. Como created 3.12 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. Inter generated just 0.88 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Como. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
36'A. Valle scores for Como
45'N. Paz scores for Como (assist: J. Butez)
45'M. Thuram scores for Inter (assist: N. Barella)
49'M. Thuram scores for Inter
58'D. Dumfries scores for Inter (assist: H. Calhanoglu)
72'D. Dumfries scores for Inter
89'L. Da Cunha scores for Como
3.12
xG Created
0.88
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-04-12 · vs Inter · Home-2.5 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 3.1 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3.12-0.88
MW20 · 2026-01-15 · vs AC Milan · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.87-1.28
MW23 · 2026-02-01 · vs Atalanta · Home-1.5 pts
Drew 0-0 home despite 5.0 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 5.05-0.52

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW36 · 2026-05-10 · vs Hellas Verona · Away+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.85-1.07
MW28 · 2026-03-07 · vs Cagliari · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.55-0.46
MW9 · 2025-10-29 · vs Hellas Verona · Home+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.5-1.52

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (115 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+6.8
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 59.5 xG - clinical finishing
+4.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 32.8 xGA opponents generated
+3.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total CLS+25

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Como are riding their luck at +25. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
05-24
A
Cremonese
Bet