Como Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+34

Luck Index Score

Como have had fortune smiling on them. The Luck Index says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 53.68

Goals Scored

xG: 49.23

Goals Conceded

xGA: 27.85

4.3

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 23 · 2026-02-01 · vs Atalanta · at home

0-0

Drew at home against Atalanta

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Como created 5.05 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 5 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Atalanta generated just 0.52 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Como. They got 1. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

10'M. O. Kempf scores for Como (assist: M. Baturina)

45'C. Nkunku scores for AC Milan

55'A. Rabiot scores for AC Milan (assist: R. Leao)

88'A. Rabiot scores for AC Milan

5.05

xG Created

0.52

Opp. xG

-1.5

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-15 · vs AC Milan · Home-1.8 pts

Lost 1-3 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.87-1.28

MW23 · 2026-02-01 · vs Atalanta · Home-1.5 pts

Drew 0-0 home despite 5.0 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.

Score: 0-0 | xG: 5.05-0.52

MW14 · 2025-12-06 · vs Inter · Away-1.1 pts

Lost 0-4 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-4 | xG: 1.02-1.42

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW28 · 2026-03-07 · vs Cagliari · Away+1.6 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.55-0.46

MW9 · 2025-10-29 · vs Hellas Verona · Home+1.6 pts

Won 3-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.5-1.52

MW18 · 2026-01-06 · vs Pisa · Away+1.5 pts

Won 3-0 away from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.73-1.56

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 more goals than their 49.2 xG - clinical finishing

+10.1

xPTS Gap

4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+7.5

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (94 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+5.9

Defensive Luck

Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 27.9 xGA opponents generated

+5.4

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+3.6

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+1.5

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

Total Luck Index+34

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Como are riding their luck at +34. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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