Como

Como CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+22
CLS Score

Como have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

58
Points
Expected: 57.02
57
Goals Scored
xG: 53.01
28
Goals Conceded
xGA: 30.09
1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 32 · 2026-04-12 · vs Inter · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Inter

A defeat that defied the run of play. Como created 3.12 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. Inter generated just 0.88 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Como. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
36'A. Valle scores for Como
45'N. Paz scores for Como (assist: J. Butez)
45'M. Thuram scores for Inter (assist: N. Barella)
49'M. Thuram scores for Inter
58'D. Dumfries scores for Inter (assist: H. Calhanoglu)
72'D. Dumfries scores for Inter
89'L. Da Cunha scores for Como
3.12
xG Created
0.88
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-04-12 · vs Inter · Home-2.5 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 3.1 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3.12-0.88
MW20 · 2026-01-15 · vs AC Milan · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.87-1.28
MW23 · 2026-02-01 · vs Atalanta · Home-1.5 pts
Drew 0-0 home despite 5.0 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 5.05-0.52

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW28 · 2026-03-07 · vs Cagliari · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.55-0.46
MW9 · 2025-10-29 · vs Hellas Verona · Home+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.5-1.52
MW18 · 2026-01-06 · vs Pisa · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-0 away from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.73-1.56

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 53.0 xG - clinical finishing
+8.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (98 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.4
xPTS Gap
1.0 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 30.1 xGA opponents generated
+1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.7
Total CLS+22

Rank Per Signal

Where Como ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

10
xPTS Gap
1
20
+1.4
11
Defensive Luck
1
20
+1
11
Discipline
1
20
+0.7
12
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+1
14
Injury Burden
1
20
+6
14
Schedule Strength
1
20
+3.4
17
Finishing Luck
1
20
+8.5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Como are riding their luck at +22. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 13th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

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