Como

Como CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+11
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Como are getting roughly what they deserve. 10 points vs 7.9 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

10
Points
Expected: 7.9
9
Goals Scored
xG: 9.43
6
Goals Conceded
xGA: 7.64
2.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Frosinone · away
0-2
Lost away against Frosinone

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Como created 2.12 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Como. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
14'G. Calo scores for Frosinone (assist: R. Schmid)
45'G. Kvernadze scores for Frosinone (assist: R. Schmid)
2.12
xG Created
2.18
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Frosinone · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 2.1 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.12-2.18
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Udinese · Away-0.0 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.5-2.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.5-2.14
MW4 · 2026-09-14 · vs Parma · Home+0.7 pts
Won 2-1 home. xG: 3.0-1.1.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.98-1.15

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Napoli · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.05-1.39
MW3 · 2026-09-04 · vs Genoa · Away+0.9 pts
Won 4-1 away. xG: 1.8-0.8.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 1.78-0.78
MW4 · 2026-09-14 · vs Parma · Home+0.7 pts
Won 2-1 home. xG: 3.0-1.1.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.98-1.15

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (5 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 7.6 xGA opponents generated
+1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.7
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 9.4 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-0.5
Total CLS+11

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Como are right where they belong. Their CLS of +11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).

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