Season

AC Milan CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 6 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+13

CLS Score

6th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

AC Milan are getting roughly what they deserve. 12 points vs 8.12 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 8.12

Goals Scored

xG: 6.88

Goals Conceded

xGA: 6.29

3.9

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 6 · 2026-10-11 · vs Sassuolo · away

1-1

Drew away against Sassuolo

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for AC Milan. They got 1. That's 0.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

63'Adrien Rabiot scores for AC Milan (assist: Luka Modrić)

68'Cas Odenthal scores for Sassuolo

1.18

xG Created

1.19

Opp. xG

-0.3

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-10-11 · vs Sassuolo · Away-0.3 pts

Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.2-1.2.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.18-1.19

MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Lazio · Away+0.1 pts

Drew 2-2 away. xG: 1.3-2.0.

Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.25-2.01

MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Lecce · Home+0.4 pts

Won 3-0 home. xG: 2.2-0.2.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 2.19-0.21

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-28 · vs Venezia · Home+2.0 pts

Won 2-0 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0-0

MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Torino · Away+1.1 pts

Won 2-1 away from 2.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.15-1.29

MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Juventus · Away+0.7 pts

Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.1-1.6.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.11-1.59

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 more goals than their 6.9 xG - clinical finishing

+7.9

xPTS Gap

4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-4.4

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (12 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+2.9

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+1.2

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 6.3 xGA opponents generated

+0.9

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-0.5

Total CLS+13

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: improving|32 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

AC Milan are right where they belong. Their CLS of +13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 12th).

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