AC Milan

AC Milan CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+26
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

AC Milan have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Injury Burden (+13.8 CLS impact). Low injury burden (87 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

70
Points
Expected: 61.35
52
Goals Scored
xG: 58.85
33
Goals Conceded
xGA: 41.41
8.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2025-08-23 · vs Cremonese · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Cremonese

A defeat that defied the run of play. AC Milan generated 1.92 xG, comfortably more than the 0.21 their opponent managed. Cremonese created almost nothing - just 0.21 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for AC Milan. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
28'F. Baschirotto scores for Cremonese (assist: A. Zerbin)
45'S. Pavlovic scores for AC Milan (assist: P. Estupinan)
61'F. Bonazzoli scores for Cremonese (assist: G. Pezzella)
1.92
xG Created
0.21
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs Cremonese · Home-2.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.92-0.21
MW26 · 2026-02-22 · vs Parma · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.54-0.46
MW29 · 2026-03-15 · vs Lazio · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.4-0.41

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-28 · vs Napoli · Home+2.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.75-2.96
MW12 · 2025-11-23 · vs Inter · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.01-1.92
MW30 · 2026-03-21 · vs Torino · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.49-2.25

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (87 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+13.8
xPTS Gap
9 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+12.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+7.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 fewer goals than their 58.9 xG - wasting chances
-7.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 fewer goals than the 41.4 xGA opponents generated
+7.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.8
Total CLS+26

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

AC Milan are riding their luck at +26. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
05-24
H
Cagliari
Bet