AC Milan

AC Milan CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+10
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

AC Milan are getting roughly what they deserve. 11 points vs 8.02 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

11
Points
Expected: 8.02
10
Goals Scored
xG: 7.91
4
Goals Conceded
xGA: 5.9
3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Lazio · away
2-2
Drew away against Lazio

One of those games where nothing went right. AC Milan generated 1.25 xG, comfortably more than the 2.01 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for AC Milan. They got 1. That's 0.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
10'M. Cancellieri scores for Lazio (assist: M. Zaccagni)
39'T. Noslin scores for Lazio
65'D. Moreira scores for AC Milan (assist: C. Pulisic)
67'D. Moreira scores for AC Milan (assist: A. Rabiot)
1.25
xG Created
2.01
Opp. xG
0.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Lazio · Away+0.1 pts
Drew 2-2 away. xG: 1.3-2.0.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.25-2.01
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Lecce · Home+0.4 pts
Won 3-0 home. xG: 2.2-0.2.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 2.19-0.21
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Juventus · Away+0.7 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.1-1.6.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.11-1.59

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Torino · Away+1.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.15-1.29
MW2 · 2026-08-28 · vs Venezia · Home+0.7 pts
Won 2-0 home. xG: 2.2-0.8.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 2.21-0.8
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Juventus · Away+0.7 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 0.1-1.6.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 0.11-1.59

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 7.9 xG - clinical finishing
+5.6
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4.6
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3.9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (10 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 5.9 xGA opponents generated
+1.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.2
Total CLS+10

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

AC Milan are right where they belong. Their CLS of +10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

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