AC Milan

AC Milan CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+34
CLS Score

AC Milan have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

66
Points
Expected: 56.01
48
Goals Scored
xG: 54
27
Goals Conceded
xGA: 36.61
10
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 1 · 2025-08-23 · vs Cremonese · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Cremonese

A defeat that defied the run of play. AC Milan generated 1.92 xG, comfortably more than the 0.21 their opponent managed. Cremonese created almost nothing - just 0.21 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for AC Milan. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
28'F. Baschirotto scores for Cremonese (assist: A. Zerbin)
45'S. Pavlovic scores for AC Milan (assist: P. Estupinan)
61'F. Bonazzoli scores for Cremonese (assist: G. Pezzella)
1.92
xG Created
0.21
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs Cremonese · Home-2.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.92-0.21
MW26 · 2026-02-22 · vs Parma · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.54-0.46
MW29 · 2026-03-15 · vs Lazio · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.4-0.41

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-28 · vs Napoli · Home+2.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.75-2.96
MW12 · 2025-11-23 · vs Inter · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.01-1.92
MW30 · 2026-03-21 · vs Torino · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.49-2.25

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+15.5
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (73 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+12.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 10 fewer goals than the 36.6 xGA opponents generated
+8.9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+8.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 6 fewer goals than their 54.0 xG - wasting chances
-8.1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.3
Total CLS+34

Rank Per Signal

Where AC Milan ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Finishing Luck
1
20
-8.1
6
Schedule Strength
1
20
-4.7
13
Discipline
1
20
+1.3
18
xPTS Gap
1
20
+15.5
19
Defensive Luck
1
20
+8.9
19
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+8.9
19
Injury Burden
1
20
+12.2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

AC Milan are riding their luck at +34. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
04-26
H
Juventus
Bet
05-03
A
Sassuolo
Bet
05-10
H
Atalanta
Bet
05-17
A
Genoa
Bet
05-24
H
Cagliari
Bet