AC Milan Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+35

Luck Index Score

AC Milan have had fortune smiling on them. The Luck Index says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 52.7

Goals Scored

xG: 51.24

Goals Conceded

xGA: 34.66

10.3

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 1 · 2025-08-23 · vs Cremonese · at home

1-2

Lost at home against Cremonese

A defeat that defied the run of play. AC Milan generated 1.92 xG, comfortably more than the 0.21 their opponent managed. Cremonese created almost nothing - just 0.21 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for AC Milan. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

28'F. Baschirotto scores for Cremonese (assist: A. Zerbin)

45'S. Pavlovic scores for AC Milan (assist: P. Estupinan)

61'F. Bonazzoli scores for Cremonese (assist: G. Pezzella)

1.92

xG Created

0.21

Opp. xG

-2.5

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-23 · vs Cremonese · Home-2.5 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.92-0.21

MW26 · 2026-02-22 · vs Parma · Home-2.2 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.54-0.46

MW29 · 2026-03-15 · vs Lazio · Away-2.1 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.4-0.41

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-28 · vs Napoli · Home+2.7 pts

Won 2-1 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.75-2.96

MW12 · 2025-11-23 · vs Inter · Away+2.2 pts

Won 1-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.01-1.92

MW30 · 2026-03-21 · vs Torino · Home+2.0 pts

Won 3-2 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.49-2.25

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+17.8

Defensive Luck

Conceded 11 fewer goals than the 34.7 xGA opponents generated

+10.9

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (77 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+10.6

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+10.1

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-9.1

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 fewer goals than their 51.2 xG - wasting chances

-6.5

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+1.2

Total Luck Index+35

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

AC Milan are riding their luck at +35. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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