COV

Coventry CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View Premier League standings →

-13
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Coventry are getting roughly what they deserve. 6 points vs 7.52 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

6
Points
Expected: 7.52
6
Goals Scored
xG: 3.8
14
Goals Conceded
xGA: 5.35
1.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Hull City · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Hull City

One of those games where nothing went right. Coventry generated 1.29 xG, comfortably more than the 0.72 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Coventry. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
82'L. Millar scores for Hull City (assist: M. Belloumi)
1.29
xG Created
0.72
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Hull City · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.29-0.72
MW7 · 2026-10-19 · vs Tottenham · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0. Read match report →
Score: 1-3 | xG: 0.79-0.9
MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Manchester City · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0. Read match report →
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Nottingham Forest · Away+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected. Read match report →
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0-0
MW6 · 2026-10-12 · vs Newcastle · Home+1.8 pts
Won 4-1 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected. Read match report →
Score: 4-1 | xG: 1.52-1.85
MW1 · 2026-08-21 · vs Arsenal · Away+-0.3 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.2-1.9.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.2-1.88

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 9 more goals than the 5.3 xGA opponents generated
-5.5
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (54 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 3.8 xG - wasting chances
-2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.2
Total CLS-13

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Coventry are right where they belong. Their CLS of -13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 14th in the league - a favorable stretch.

Next Matches
10-24
H
Fulham
Bet
10-31
H
Sunderland
Bet
11-06
A
Everton
Bet
11-21
H
Crystal Palace
Bet
11-28
A
Leeds
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
19
of 20
↓ 2 from current 17
Projected Points
37
from 6 now (+31 remaining)
Pace
1.07
expected pts per game · 31 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 31 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook