COV

Coventry CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 2 matches played · View Premier League standings →

-24
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 23 in the Premier League

Coventry can't catch a break. 0 points when the data says they deserve closer to 2.07? 2 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Schedule Strength (-11.7 CLS impact). Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

0
Points
Expected: 2.07
0
Goals Scored
xG: 1.49
4
Goals Conceded
xGA: 2.6
2.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Hull City · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Hull City

One of those games where nothing went right. Coventry generated 1.29 xG, comfortably more than the 0.72 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Coventry. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
82'L. Millar scores for Hull City (assist: M. Belloumi)
1.29
xG Created
0.72
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Hull City · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.29-0.72
MW1 · 2026-08-21 · vs Arsenal · Away-0.3 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.2-1.9.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.2-1.88

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-21 · vs Arsenal · Away+-0.3 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.2-1.9.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.2-1.88
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Hull City · Home+-1.8 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.29-0.72

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-11.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-9.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 2.6 xGA opponents generated
-2.8
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (14 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.4
Finishing Luck
Scored NaN more goals than their 1.5 xG - clinical finishing
+1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.4
Total CLS-24

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|36 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -24, Coventry are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
09-05
A
Manchester City
Bet
09-13
H
Brighton
Bet
09-19
A
Nottingham Forest
Bet
10-12
H
Newcastle
Bet
10-19
A
Tottenham
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
22
of 20
↑ 1 from current 23
Projected Points
22
from 0 now (+22 remaining)
Pace
1.03
expected pts per game · 36 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 36 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook