West Ham

West Ham CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-17
CLS Score

West Ham can't catch a break. 33 points when the data says they deserve closer to 38.3? 16 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

33
Points
Expected: 38.3
40
Goals Scored
xG: 39.5
57
Goals Conceded
xGA: 51.8
5.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 27 · 2026-02-21 · vs Bournemouth · at home
0-0
Drew at home against Bournemouth

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. West Ham created 3.27 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Bournemouth generated just 0.65 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for West Ham. They got 1. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

3.27
xG Created
0.65
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-02-21 · vs Bournemouth · Home-1.6 pts
Drew 0-0 home despite 3.3 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 3.27-0.65
MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Aston Villa · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.03-0.67
MW28 · 2026-02-28 · vs Liverpool · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 2-5 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-5 | xG: 1.86-1.84

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs Burnley · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.02-1.34
MW29 · 2026-03-04 · vs Fulham · Away+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.09-1.01
MW22 · 2026-01-17 · vs Tottenham · Away+1.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 2.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 2.69-1.68

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-8.7
xPTS Gap
5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-8.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 51.8 xGA opponents generated
-7.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (99 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+7.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.5 more goals than their 39.5 xG - clinical finishing
+1.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.5
Total CLS-17

Rank Per Signal

Where West Ham ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Defensive Luck
1
20
-7.2
2
Schedule Strength
1
20
-8.7
6
xPTS Gap
1
20
-8.1
8
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-1.6
9
Discipline
1
20
-0.5
11
Finishing Luck
1
20
+1.9
17
Injury Burden
1
20
+7.2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -17, West Ham are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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