Season

West Ham CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 38 matches played · View Premier League standings →

-16

CLS Score

8th unluckiest of 20 in the Premier League

West Ham can't catch a break. 39 points when the data says they deserve closer to 44.2? 19 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Schedule Strength (-8.3 CLS impact). Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 44.2

Goals Scored

xG: 46.19

Goals Conceded

xGA: 59.84

5.2

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 27 · 2026-02-21 · vs Bournemouth · at home

0-0

Drew at home against Bournemouth

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. West Ham created 3.27 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Bournemouth generated just 0.65 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for West Ham. They got 1. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

3.27

xG Created

0.65

Opp. xG

-1.6

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-02-21 · vs Bournemouth · Home-1.6 pts

Drew 0-0 home despite 3.3 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 1.

Score: 0-0 | xG: 3.27-0.65

MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Aston Villa · Home-1.6 pts

Lost 2-3 home despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.03-0.67

MW28 · 2026-02-28 · vs Liverpool · Away-1.4 pts

Lost 2-5 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-5 | xG: 1.86-1.84

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs Burnley · Away+1.9 pts

Won 2-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.02-1.34

MW34 · 2026-04-25 · vs Everton · Home+1.8 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected. Read match report →

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.17-1.35

MW29 · 2026-03-04 · vs Fulham · Away+1.6 pts

Won 1-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.09-1.01

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-8.3

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (112 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+7.5

Defensive Luck

Conceded 5 more goals than the 59.8 xGA opponents generated

-7.4

xPTS Gap

5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-6.5

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-1.6

Finishing Luck

Scoring almost exactly at their 46.2 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful

+0.6

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-0.3

Total CLS-16

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -16, West Ham are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 5 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

Projected Finish

Projected Position

of 20

No change from current 18

Projected Points

from 39 now (+0 remaining)

Pace

1.16

expected pts per game · 0 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 0 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache

West Ham's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.

Player	Price	Owned	Goals	xG	Δ	Verdict
Bowen FWD	£7.8	17.5%	9	7.2	+1.8	Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Summerville MID	£5.4	1.6%	5	5.4	-0.4	Finishing in line with xG
L.Paquetá MID	£5.9	1.0%	4	2.9	+1.1	Finishing in line with xG
Füllkrug FWD	£5.6	0.6%	0	0.9	-0.9	Finishing in line with xG
Wilson FWD	£5.8	0.6%	7	7.6	-0.6	Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).