Cubs CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
0
CLS Score
Cubs are getting what their run differential deserves. 13 wins vs 14.3 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
13
Wins
Expected: 14.3
117
Runs Scored
83
Runs Allowed
1.3
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Guardians · away
0-0
Lost away against Guardians
Shut out on the road by Guardians. 0 runs conceded, 0 scored.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Guardians · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out on the road by Guardians. 0 runs conceded, 0 scored.
Score: 0-0
MW10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Guardians · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to Guardians. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-6
MW15 · 2026-04-11 · vs Pirates · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 in 11 innings to Pirates. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW16 · 2026-04-12 · vs Pirates · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Pirates 7-6. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 7-6
MW22 · 2026-04-19 · vs Mets · Home+0.2 pts
Edged Mets 2-1 in 10 innings. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 2-1
MW21 · 2026-04-18 · vs Mets · Home+0.2 pts
Beat Mets 4-2.
Score: 4-2
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
0
One-Run Game Record
3-2 in one-run games (60% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
0
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.337 vs xwOBA 0.325 - batters outperforming their contact quality
0
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.31 vs xERA 4.07 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
0
Injury Burden
High injury burden (15 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
0
Total CLS0
Rank Per Signal
Where Cubs ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
120
Pitching Luck
1
30
130
Batting Luck
1
30
150
One-Run Game Record
1
30
160
Injury Burden
1
30
190
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|139 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Cubs are right where they belong. Their CLS of 0 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 18th).