Cubs

Cubs CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 123 games played · View MLB standings →

+26
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Cubs have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Batting Luck (+16.2 CLS impact). wOBA 0.335 vs xwOBA 0.322 - batters outperforming their contact quality

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

70
Wins
Expected: 70.5
622
Runs Scored
513
Runs Allowed
0.5
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Guardians · away
0-0
Lost away against Guardians

Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Guardians · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm79 · 2026-06-21 · vs Blue Jays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Blue Jays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm80 · 2026-06-22 · vs Mets · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm123 · 2026-08-11 · vs Nationals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Nationals 8-6 (9-11 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 8-6
Gm118 · 2026-08-05 · vs Dodgers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Dodgers (15-14 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 7-6
Gm95 · 2026-07-08 · vs Orioles · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Orioles 9-7 despite being outhit 14-8. Won on timely hitting, not volume.
Score: 9-7

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.335 vs xwOBA 0.322 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+16.2
One-Run Game Record
18-13 in one-run games (58% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+9.7
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.23 vs xERA 4.55 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+8.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-7.5
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-1.3
Total CLS+26

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|39 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cubs are riding their luck at +26. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
08-12
A
Nationals
Bet
08-13
A
Nationals
Bet
08-14
H
Cardinals
Bet
08-15
H
Cardinals
Bet
08-16
H
Cardinals
Bet