Cubs

Cubs CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 51 games played · View MLB standings →

+19
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Cubs have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: One-Run Game Record (+9.2 CLS impact). 9-3 in one-run games (75% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

29
Wins
Expected: 27.8
246
Runs Scored
218
Runs Allowed
1.2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Guardians · away
0-0
Lost away against Guardians

Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Guardians · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Guardians · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 to Guardians (7-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 5-6
Gm15 · 2026-04-11 · vs Pirates · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 in 11 innings to Pirates. Left 16 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm38 · 2026-05-06 · vs Reds · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 10 innings against Reds (10-10 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 7-6
Gm36 · 2026-05-04 · vs Reds · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Reds despite being outhit 10-6. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 5-4
Gm33 · 2026-05-01 · vs D-backs · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against D-backs (8-11 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

One-Run Game Record
9-3 in one-run games (75% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+9.2
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+4.5
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.331 vs xwOBA 0.330 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+3.7
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.18 vs xERA 4.36 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+0.2
Total CLS+19

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|111 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cubs are riding their luck at +19. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 20th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

Next Matches
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05-24
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05-26
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