Cubs

Cubs CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 93 games played · View MLB standings →

+16
CLS Score
9th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Cubs have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: One-Run Game Record (+10.7 CLS impact). 15-9 in one-run games (63% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

50
Wins
Expected: 49.4
455
Runs Scored
409
Runs Allowed
0.6
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Guardians · away
0-0
Lost away against Guardians

Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Guardians · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm79 · 2026-06-21 · vs Blue Jays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Blue Jays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm80 · 2026-06-22 · vs Mets · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm89 · 2026-06-30 · vs Padres · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Padres 9-7 (13-13 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 9-7
Gm87 · 2026-06-28 · vs Brewers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Brewers despite being outhit 10-4. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 4-3
Gm84 · 2026-06-25 · vs Mets · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Mets. Mets left 14 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

One-Run Game Record
15-9 in one-run games (63% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+10.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.331 vs xwOBA 0.325 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+8.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (15 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-7.1
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+3.2
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.65 vs xERA 4.71 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+0.9
Total CLS+16

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|69 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cubs are riding their luck at +16. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 21th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

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