Cubs

Cubs CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 165 games played · View MLB standings →

+16
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Cubs have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Batting Luck (+21.0 CLS impact). wOBA 0.337 vs xwOBA 0.323 - batters outperforming their contact quality

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

89
Wins
Expected: 94.9
850
Runs Scored
703
Runs Allowed
5.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Guardians · away
0-0
Lost away against Guardians

Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Guardians · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm79 · 2026-06-21 · vs Blue Jays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Blue Jays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm80 · 2026-06-22 · vs Mets · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm152 · 2026-09-12 · vs Pirates · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Pirates (5-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm146 · 2026-09-05 · vs Marlins · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Marlins (13-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Gm130 · 2026-08-18 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against White Sox (8-10 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.337 vs xwOBA 0.323 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+21
Pythagorean Delta
6 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-18.4
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.24 vs xERA 4.46 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+7.6
One-Run Game Record
23-21 in one-run games (52% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+3.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+2.4
Total CLS+16

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cubs are riding their luck at +16. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available