Cubs

Cubs CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 133 games played · View MLB standings →

+26
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Cubs have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Batting Luck (+19.8 CLS impact). wOBA 0.335 vs xwOBA 0.321 - batters outperforming their contact quality

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

74
Wins
Expected: 74.4
665
Runs Scored
567
Runs Allowed
0.4
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Guardians · away
0-0
Lost away against Guardians

Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm8 · 2026-04-04 · vs Guardians · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Guardians 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm79 · 2026-06-21 · vs Blue Jays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Blue Jays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm80 · 2026-06-22 · vs Mets · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Mets 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm130 · 2026-08-18 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against White Sox (8-10 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm129 · 2026-08-17 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Beat White Sox 7-5 (14-4 H). Dominated with the bat (14 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 7-5
Gm123 · 2026-08-11 · vs Nationals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Nationals 8-6 (9-11 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 8-6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.335 vs xwOBA 0.321 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+19.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (15 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-9.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.29 vs xERA 4.58 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+8.9
One-Run Game Record
19-15 in one-run games (56% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+7.7
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-0.8
Total CLS+26

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|29 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cubs are riding their luck at +26. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
08-23
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Mariners
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08-24
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08-25
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D-backs
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08-26
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08-28
H
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