White Sox CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 50 games played · View MLB standings →
+10
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
White Sox are getting what their run differential deserves. 25 wins vs 23.3 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
25
Wins
Expected: 23.3
218
Runs Scored
230
Runs Allowed
1.7
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-02 · vs Blue Jays · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Blue Jays
Shut out by Blue Jays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm7 · 2026-04-02 · vs Blue Jays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Blue Jays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Brewers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-9 to Brewers (9-11 H). Brewers were the better team on the day.
Score: 7-9
Gm22 · 2026-04-18 · vs Athletics · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 in 11 innings to Athletics. Left 14 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 6-7
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm47 · 2026-05-17 · vs Cubs · Home+0.4 pts
Won 9-8 in 10 innings against Cubs. Cubs left 13 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 9-8
Gm43 · 2026-05-13 · vs Royals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Royals. 2 Royals errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 6-5
Gm42 · 2026-05-12 · vs Royals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Royals despite being outhit 11-7. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 6-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their run differential predicts
+6.3
One-Run Game Record
10-6 in one-run games (63% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+4.9
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.323 vs xwOBA 0.332 - hard contact not converting into hits
-4.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.08 vs xERA 4.44 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+4.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.2
Total CLS+10
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|112 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
White Sox are right where they belong. Their CLS of +10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 24th in the league - a favorable stretch.