White Sox CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 164 games played · View MLB standings →
+11
CLS Score
14th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
White Sox are getting what their run differential deserves. 84 wins vs 86.5 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
84
Wins
Expected: 86.5
776
Runs Scored
720
Runs Allowed
2.5
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-02 · vs Blue Jays · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Blue Jays
Shut out by Blue Jays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm7 · 2026-04-02 · vs Blue Jays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Blue Jays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm69 · 2026-06-11 · vs Braves · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Braves 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm116 · 2026-08-06 · vs Red Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 11-12 in 13 innings to Red Sox. Left 14 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 11-12
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm159 · 2026-09-22 · vs Royals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Royals 14-11 (13-13 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 14-11
Gm150 · 2026-09-12 · vs Cardinals · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Cardinals (6-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Gm125 · 2026-08-16 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Tigers 7-5 (8-7 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.08 vs xERA 4.37 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+9.9
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-7.5
One-Run Game Record
25-22 in one-run games (53% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+3.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.318 vs xwOBA 0.316 - batters outperforming their contact quality
-0.1
Total CLS+11
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
White Sox are right where they belong. Their CLS of +11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available