White Sox CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 131 games played · View MLB standings →
+3
CLS Score
15th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
White Sox are getting what their run differential deserves. 67 wins vs 68.7 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
67
Wins
Expected: 68.7
616
Runs Scored
574
Runs Allowed
1.7
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-02 · vs Blue Jays · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Blue Jays
Shut out by Blue Jays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm7 · 2026-04-02 · vs Blue Jays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Blue Jays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm69 · 2026-06-11 · vs Braves · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Braves 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm116 · 2026-08-06 · vs Red Sox · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 11-12 in 13 innings to Red Sox. Left 14 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 11-12
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm125 · 2026-08-16 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Tigers 7-5 (8-7 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Gm124 · 2026-08-15 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Tigers (11-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm109 · 2026-07-29 · vs Yankees · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 12 innings against Yankees. Yankees left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.05 vs xERA 4.27 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+6.7
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-5.9
One-Run Game Record
22-20 in one-run games (52% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+3.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (11 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.318 vs xwOBA 0.316 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+1.1
Total CLS+3
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|31 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
White Sox are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 19th in the league - a favorable stretch.