White Sox CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 90 games played · View MLB standings →
+4
CLS Score
14th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
White Sox are getting what their run differential deserves. 46 wins vs 46.5 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
46
Wins
Expected: 46.5
421
Runs Scored
396
Runs Allowed
0.5
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 7 · 2026-04-02 · vs Blue Jays · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Blue Jays
Shut out by Blue Jays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm7 · 2026-04-02 · vs Blue Jays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Blue Jays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm69 · 2026-06-11 · vs Braves · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Braves 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Brewers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-9 to Brewers (9-11 H). Brewers were the better team on the day.
Score: 7-9
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm79 · 2026-06-22 · vs Guardians · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Guardians. Guardians left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5
Gm67 · 2026-06-09 · vs Braves · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 10 innings against Braves. Braves left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5
Gm58 · 2026-05-29 · vs Tigers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Tigers (10-4 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
One-Run Game Record
17-12 in one-run games (59% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+6.3
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.17 vs xERA 4.35 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+2.1
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-1.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (11 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.325 vs xwOBA 0.326 - hard contact not converting into hits
-1.2
Total CLS+4
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|72 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
White Sox are right where they belong. Their CLS of +4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 21th in the league - a favorable stretch.