Cardinals

Cardinals CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →

+26
CLS Score

Cardinals have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

13
Wins
Expected: 10.1
106
Runs Scored
116
Runs Allowed
2.9
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Rays · at home
7-11
Lost at home against Rays

Lost to Rays 7-11.

7
Runs
11
Opp. Runs
-0.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Rays · Home-0.3 pts
Lost to Rays 7-11.
Score: 7-11
MW10 · 2026-04-06 · vs Nationals · Away-0.3 pts
Lost to Nationals 6-9.
Score: 6-9
MW22 · 2026-04-20 · vs Marlins · Away-0.3 pts
Lost to Marlins 3-5.
Score: 3-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-04-19 · vs Astros · Away+0.4 pts
Outlasted Astros 7-5 in 10 innings. Extra baseball went their way.
Score: 7-5
MW20 · 2026-04-18 · vs Astros · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Astros 7-5.
Score: 7-5
MW17 · 2026-04-14 · vs Guardians · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Guardians 6-5 in 10 innings. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 6-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their run differential predicts
+14
One-Run Game Record
5-0 in one-run games (100% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.9
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.90 vs xERA 5.37 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.319 vs xwOBA 0.323 - hard contact not converting into hits
+0.1
Total CLS+26

Rank Per Signal

Where Cardinals ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

14
Batting Luck
1
30
+0.1
19
Pitching Luck
1
30
+1
24
Injury Burden
1
30
+1.9
29
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
+14
29
One-Run Game Record
1
30
+9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|140 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cardinals are riding their luck at +26. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 19th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

Next Matches
04-21
A
Marlins
Bet
04-22
A
Marlins
Bet
04-24
H
Mariners
Bet
04-25
H
Mariners
Bet
04-26
H
Mariners
Bet