Cardinals

Cardinals CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 90 games played · View MLB standings →

+37
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Cardinals have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Pitching Luck (+17.7 CLS impact). ERA 4.15 vs xERA 4.88 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

47
Wins
Expected: 44.5
399
Runs Scored
384
Runs Allowed
2.5
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Brewers · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Brewers

Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm51 · 2026-05-22 · vs Reds · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Reds 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm54 · 2026-05-24 · vs Reds · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Reds 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm78 · 2026-06-21 · vs Royals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Royals 12-10 (16-12 H). Dominated with the bat (16 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 12-10
Gm65 · 2026-06-06 · vs Reds · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Reds (13-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Gm58 · 2026-05-29 · vs Cubs · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Cubs (9-11 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pitching Luck
ERA 4.15 vs xERA 4.88 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+17.7
Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their run differential predicts
+10.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (2 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+9.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.320 vs xwOBA 0.329 - hard contact not converting into hits
-7.5
One-Run Game Record
15-11 in one-run games (58% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+6.3
Total CLS+37

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|72 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cardinals are riding their luck at +37. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 3th in the league - a tough run. That makes the correction more likely.

Next Matches
07-05
A
Cubs
Bet
07-06
H
Brewers
Bet
07-07
H
Brewers
Bet
07-07
H
Brewers
Bet
07-08
H
Brewers
Bet