Cardinals

Cardinals CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 166 games played · View MLB standings →

-19
CLS Score
11th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Cardinals deserve more. 77 wins vs 78.1 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Batting Luck (-24.3 CLS impact). wOBA 0.306 vs xwOBA 0.318 - hard contact not converting into hits

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

77
Wins
Expected: 78.1
720
Runs Scored
749
Runs Allowed
1.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Brewers · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Brewers

Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm51 · 2026-05-22 · vs Reds · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Reds 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm54 · 2026-05-24 · vs Reds · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Reds 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm133 · 2026-08-20 · vs Reds · Away+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Reds. 2 Reds errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 10-9
Gm148 · 2026-09-06 · vs Rockies · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Rockies 10-8 (15-10 H). Dominated with the bat (15 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 10-8
Gm146 · 2026-09-04 · vs Rockies · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Rockies. 2 Rockies errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 7-6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.306 vs xwOBA 0.318 - hard contact not converting into hits
-24.3
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.23 vs xERA 4.66 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+15.9
One-Run Game Record
24-30 in one-run games (44% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-7.9
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-2.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (11 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.1
Total CLS-19

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -19, Cardinals are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available