Cardinals

Cardinals CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 124 games played · View MLB standings →

+20
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Cardinals have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Batting Luck (-20.1 CLS impact). wOBA 0.309 vs xwOBA 0.323 - hard contact not converting into hits

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

60
Wins
Expected: 59.3
522
Runs Scored
529
Runs Allowed
0.7
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Brewers · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Brewers

Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm51 · 2026-05-22 · vs Reds · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Reds 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm54 · 2026-05-24 · vs Reds · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Reds 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm100 · 2026-07-17 · vs D-backs · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against D-backs. 2 D-backs errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 5-4
Gm78 · 2026-06-21 · vs Royals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Royals 12-10 (16-12 H). Dominated with the bat (16 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 12-10
Gm65 · 2026-06-06 · vs Reds · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Reds (13-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.309 vs xwOBA 0.323 - hard contact not converting into hits
-20.1
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.07 vs xERA 4.71 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+19.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (2 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+11.7
One-Run Game Record
20-17 in one-run games (54% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+5
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+3.5
Total CLS+20

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|38 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cardinals are riding their luck at +20. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
08-12
H
Phillies
Bet
08-14
A
Cubs
Bet
08-15
A
Cubs
Bet
08-16
A
Cubs
Bet
08-17
A
Reds
Bet