Cardinals CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 135 games played · View MLB standings →
+10
CLS Score
11th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Cardinals are getting what their run differential deserves. 66 wins vs 65.5 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
66
Wins
Expected: 65.5
581
Runs Scored
581
Runs Allowed
0.5
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Brewers · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Brewers
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm51 · 2026-05-22 · vs Reds · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Reds 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm54 · 2026-05-24 · vs Reds · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Reds 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm133 · 2026-08-20 · vs Reds · Away+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Reds. 2 Reds errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 10-9
Gm100 · 2026-07-17 · vs D-backs · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against D-backs. 2 D-backs errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 5-4
Gm78 · 2026-06-21 · vs Royals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Royals 12-10 (16-12 H). Dominated with the bat (16 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 12-10
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.00 vs xERA 4.59 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+20.3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.310 vs xwOBA 0.322 - hard contact not converting into hits
-19.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+3.5
One-Run Game Record
22-20 in one-run games (52% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+3.4
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+2.6
Total CLS+10
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|27 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Cardinals are right where they belong. Their CLS of +10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 16th).