Cardinals

Cardinals CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 49 games played · View MLB standings →

+41
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Cardinals are riding sequencing luck. 28 wins from 23.9 expected by run differential — the kind of overperformance that usually regresses inside a month in baseball. Enjoy the view from up here. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+14.6 CLS impact). 4 more wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

28
Wins
Expected: 23.9
217
Runs Scored
218
Runs Allowed
4.1
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Brewers · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Brewers

Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm36 · 2026-05-05 · vs Brewers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Brewers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm26 · 2026-04-25 · vs Mariners · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 9-11 to Mariners (14-19 H). Mariners were the better team on the day.
Score: 9-11
Gm3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Rays · Home-0.3 pts
Lost 7-11 to Rays (11-17 H). Rays were the better team on the day.
Score: 7-11

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm45 · 2026-05-15 · vs Royals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 in 11 innings against Royals. Royals left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 5-4
Gm44 · 2026-05-14 · vs Athletics · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Athletics. 2 Athletics errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 5-4
Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Pirates · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Pirates. Pirates left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+14.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.18 vs xERA 5.17 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+14.6
One-Run Game Record
10-3 in one-run games (77% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+9.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (7 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+3.9
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.320 vs xwOBA 0.327 - hard contact not converting into hits
-2
Total CLS+41

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|113 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +41, Cardinals are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

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