D-backs CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 48 games played · View MLB standings →
+9
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
D-backs are getting what their run differential deserves. 25 wins vs 23.8 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
25
Wins
Expected: 23.8
221
Runs Scored
223
Runs Allowed
1.2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 2 · 2026-03-27 · vs Dodgers · away
5-4
Lost away against Dodgers
Lost 4-5 to Dodgers despite outhitting them 8-4. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.
4
Runs
5
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm2 · 2026-03-27 · vs Dodgers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Dodgers despite outhitting them 8-4. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.
Score: 4-5
Gm11 · 2026-04-07 · vs Mets · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 in 10 innings to Mets. Left 12 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 3-4
Gm15 · 2026-04-11 · vs Phillies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Phillies (7-5 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm45 · 2026-05-17 · vs Rockies · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Rockies 8-6 (12-8 H). Dominated with the bat (12 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 8-6
Gm18 · 2026-04-14 · vs Orioles · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Orioles (10-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm16 · 2026-04-12 · vs Phillies · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Phillies (9-10 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Injury Burden
High injury burden (20 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5.7
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.21 vs xERA 4.62 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+5.4
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+4.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.316 vs xwOBA 0.315 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+3.6
One-Run Game Record
8-7 in one-run games (53% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+1.1
Total CLS+9
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|114 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
D-backs are right where they belong. Their CLS of +9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 29th in the league - a favorable stretch.