D-backs

D-backs CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 131 games played · View MLB standings →

+38
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 30 in the MLB

D-backs have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Pitching Luck (+26.5 CLS impact). ERA 4.17 vs xERA 4.94 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

68
Wins
Expected: 65.7
593
Runs Scored
586
Runs Allowed
2.3
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 81 · 2026-06-25 · vs Cardinals · away
0-0
Lost away against Cardinals

Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm81 · 2026-06-25 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm2 · 2026-03-27 · vs Dodgers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Dodgers despite outhitting them 8-4. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.
Score: 4-5
Gm11 · 2026-04-07 · vs Mets · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 in 10 innings to Mets. Left 12 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm129 · 2026-08-19 · vs Red Sox · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 10 innings against Red Sox (10-9 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 7-6
Gm118 · 2026-08-07 · vs Dodgers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Dodgers (7-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm109 · 2026-07-28 · vs Pirates · Away+0.4 pts
Won 8-7 in 12 innings against Pirates. Pirates left 13 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 8-7

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pitching Luck
ERA 4.17 vs xERA 4.94 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+26.5
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their run differential predicts
+9.2
One-Run Game Record
22-18 in one-run games (55% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+6.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.315 vs xwOBA 0.315 - batters outperforming their contact quality
-0.5
Total CLS+38

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

D-backs are riding their luck at +38. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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