D-backs CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
+13
CLS Score
D-backs are getting what their run differential deserves. 13 wins vs 10.6 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
13
Wins
Expected: 10.6
104
Runs Scored
113
Runs Allowed
2.4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-03-27 · vs Dodgers · away
4-5
Lost away against Dodgers
Lost 4-5 to Dodgers. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
4
Runs
5
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW2 · 2026-03-27 · vs Dodgers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Dodgers. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-5
MW11 · 2026-04-07 · vs Mets · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 in 10 innings to Mets. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 3-4
MW15 · 2026-04-11 · vs Phillies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Phillies. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW18 · 2026-04-14 · vs Orioles · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Orioles 4-3. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 4-3
MW16 · 2026-04-12 · vs Phillies · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Phillies 4-3. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 4-3
MW14 · 2026-04-10 · vs Phillies · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Phillies 5-4. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 5-4
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their run differential predicts
+11.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (21 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-4
One-Run Game Record
6-4 in one-run games (60% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+2.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.77 vs xERA 4.39 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1.9
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.307 vs xwOBA 0.308 - hard contact not converting into hits
+0.9
Total CLS+13
Rank Per Signal
Where D-backs ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
1-4
Injury Burden
1
30
19+0.9
Batting Luck
1
30
23+2.6
One-Run Game Record
1
30
25+1.9
Pitching Luck
1
30
27+11.6
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|139 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
D-backs are right where they belong. Their CLS of +13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 14th).