D-backs

D-backs CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 163 games played · View MLB standings →

+49
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 30 in the MLB

D-backs are riding sequencing luck. 86 wins from 81.9 expected by run differential — the kind of overperformance that usually regresses inside a month in baseball. Enjoy the view from up here. Top driver: Pitching Luck (+21.6 CLS impact). ERA 4.20 vs xERA 4.77 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

86
Wins
Expected: 81.9
739
Runs Scored
730
Runs Allowed
4.1
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 81 · 2026-06-25 · vs Cardinals · away
0-0
Lost away against Cardinals

Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm81 · 2026-06-25 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cardinals 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm2 · 2026-03-27 · vs Dodgers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Dodgers despite outhitting them 8-4. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.
Score: 4-5
Gm11 · 2026-04-07 · vs Mets · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 in 10 innings to Mets. Left 12 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm152 · 2026-09-14 · vs Marlins · Home+0.4 pts
Won 8-7 against Marlins. 2 Marlins errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 8-7
Gm146 · 2026-09-07 · vs Royals · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 in 10 innings against Royals (10-8 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 5-4
Gm144 · 2026-09-05 · vs Astros · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Astros (8-9 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pitching Luck
ERA 4.20 vs xERA 4.77 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+21.6
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+14.4
One-Run Game Record
28-21 in one-run games (57% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+10.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.318 vs xwOBA 0.318 - hard contact not converting into hits
-3.6
Total CLS+49

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +49, D-backs are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available