Giants

Giants CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 123 games played · View MLB standings →

-42
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Giants are cursed by baseball's most unforgiving luck signal: one-run games. 50 wins from 53.4 expected by Pythagorean run differential. They're outscoring opponents overall but losing the sequencing — tight games, bunched innings, BABIP variance. The regression is coming, and it usually comes fast. Top driver: One-Run Game Record (-19.7 CLS impact). 10-20 in one-run games (33% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

50
Wins
Expected: 53.4
492
Runs Scored
555
Runs Allowed
3.4
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Phillies · away
0-0
Lost away against Phillies

Shut out by Phillies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Phillies · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Phillies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm77 · 2026-06-18 · vs Braves · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Braves 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm32 · 2026-04-30 · vs Phillies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Phillies despite outhitting them 13-9. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.
Score: 5-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm70 · 2026-06-10 · vs Nationals · Home+0.5 pts
Won 11-10 against Nationals (14-14 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 11-10
Gm106 · 2026-07-24 · vs Angels · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 10 innings against Angels (9-9 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 7-6
Gm76 · 2026-06-17 · vs Braves · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Braves 7-5 (9-12 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

One-Run Game Record
10-20 in one-run games (33% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-19.7
Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-13.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5.9
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.38 vs xERA 4.27 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-5.8
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.311 vs xwOBA 0.308 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+2.7
Total CLS-42

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|39 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Giants are deeply cursed at -42. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports. Their next 5 opponents average 23th in the league - a favorable stretch. That eases the path to correction.

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