Giants CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 51 games played · View MLB standings →
+11
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Giants are getting what their run differential deserves. 20 wins vs 19.1 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
20
Wins
Expected: 19.1
173
Runs Scored
225
Runs Allowed
0.9
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Phillies · away
0-0
Lost away against Phillies
Shut out by Phillies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Phillies · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Phillies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm32 · 2026-04-30 · vs Phillies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Phillies despite outhitting them 13-9. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.
Score: 5-6
Gm11 · 2026-04-06 · vs Phillies · Home-0.3 pts
Lost 4-6 to Phillies (11-11 H). Phillies were the better team on the day.
Score: 4-6
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm41 · 2026-05-10 · vs Pirates · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 12 innings against Pirates. Pirates left 13 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 7-6
Gm21 · 2026-04-18 · vs Nationals · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 12 innings against Nationals. Nationals left 12 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 7-6
Gm47 · 2026-05-16 · vs Athletics · Away+0.3 pts
Beat Athletics 6-4 (14-6 H). Dominated with the bat (14 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 6-4
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.306 vs xwOBA 0.299 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+8
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+3.2
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.24 vs xERA 4.23 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-1.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (10 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.7
One-Run Game Record
4-4 in one-run games — exactly at the .500 norm
-0.2
Total CLS+11
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|111 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Giants are right where they belong. Their CLS of +11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 14th).