Giants CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 92 games played · View MLB standings →
+1
CLS Score
17th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Giants are getting what their run differential deserves. 37 wins vs 37.8 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
37
Wins
Expected: 37.8
364
Runs Scored
430
Runs Allowed
0.8
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Phillies · away
0-0
Lost away against Phillies
Shut out by Phillies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Phillies · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Phillies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm77 · 2026-06-18 · vs Braves · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Braves 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm32 · 2026-04-30 · vs Phillies · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Phillies despite outhitting them 13-9. The hits were there, the sequencing wasn't.
Score: 5-6
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm70 · 2026-06-10 · vs Nationals · Home+0.5 pts
Won 11-10 against Nationals (14-14 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 11-10
Gm76 · 2026-06-17 · vs Braves · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Braves 7-5 (9-12 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Gm64 · 2026-06-04 · vs Brewers · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Brewers 12-9 (20-11 H). Dominated with the bat (20 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 12-9
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.326 vs xwOBA 0.313 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+12.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.33 vs xERA 4.18 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-4.6
One-Run Game Record
9-11 in one-run games (45% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-3
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-2.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (11 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.4
Total CLS+1
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|70 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Giants are right where they belong. Their CLS of +1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 23th in the league - a favorable stretch.