Giants

Giants CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 165 games played · View MLB standings →

-57
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Giants are cursed by baseball's most unforgiving luck signal: one-run games. 65 wins from 71.6 expected by Pythagorean run differential. They're outscoring opponents overall but losing the sequencing — tight games, bunched innings, BABIP variance. The regression is coming, and it usually comes fast. Top driver: One-Run Game Record (-21.1 CLS impact). 16-29 in one-run games (36% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

65
Wins
Expected: 71.6
669
Runs Scored
760
Runs Allowed
6.6
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Phillies · away
0-0
Lost away against Phillies

Shut out by Phillies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Phillies · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Phillies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm77 · 2026-06-18 · vs Braves · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Braves 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm136 · 2026-08-26 · vs Reds · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 9-10 to Reds. 2 errors in a one-run game - gave it away defensively.
Score: 9-10

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm70 · 2026-06-10 · vs Nationals · Home+0.5 pts
Won 11-10 against Nationals (14-14 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 11-10
Gm156 · 2026-09-16 · vs Cardinals · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 10 innings against Cardinals. Cardinals left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5
Gm150 · 2026-09-09 · vs Cardinals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Cardinals (10-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 7-6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

One-Run Game Record
16-29 in one-run games (36% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-21.1
Pythagorean Delta
7 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-21
Injury Burden
High injury burden (22 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-13.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.306 vs xwOBA 0.305 - batters outperforming their contact quality
-1.8
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.35 vs xERA 4.40 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+0.6
Total CLS-57

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Giants are deeply cursed at -57. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available