Padres

Padres CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 162 games played · View MLB standings →

+29
CLS Score
5th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Padres have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (+19.9 CLS impact). 6 more wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

91
Wins
Expected: 85.3
722
Runs Scored
681
Runs Allowed
5.7
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Cubs · at home
5-4
Lost at home against Cubs

Lost 4-5 to Cubs (3-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.

4
Runs
5
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Cubs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Cubs (3-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
Gm48 · 2026-05-19 · vs Dodgers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Dodgers (6-6 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
Gm54 · 2026-05-26 · vs Phillies · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Phillies (5-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm155 · 2026-09-19 · vs Marlins · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 10 innings against Marlins. Marlins left 12 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 7-6
Gm150 · 2026-09-14 · vs Rockies · Away+0.4 pts
Won 8-7 against Rockies. Rockies left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 8-7
Gm148 · 2026-09-12 · vs Giants · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Giants (13-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 7-6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
6 more wins than their run differential predicts
+19.9
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.75 vs xERA 4.12 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+13.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.313 vs xwOBA 0.317 - hard contact not converting into hits
-10.8
One-Run Game Record
26-22 in one-run games (54% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+6.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (11 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.1
Total CLS+29

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Padres are riding their luck at +29. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available