Padres CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 88 games played · View MLB standings →
0
CLS Score
17th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Padres are getting what their run differential deserves. 43 wins vs 39.1 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
43
Wins
Expected: 39.1
343
Runs Scored
388
Runs Allowed
3.9
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Cubs · at home
5-4
Lost at home against Cubs
Lost 4-5 to Cubs (3-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
4
Runs
5
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Cubs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Cubs (3-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
Gm48 · 2026-05-19 · vs Dodgers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Dodgers (6-6 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
Gm54 · 2026-05-26 · vs Phillies · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Phillies (5-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm78 · 2026-06-23 · vs Braves · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 10 innings against Braves. Braves left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 7-6
Gm67 · 2026-06-10 · vs Reds · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Reds (11-10 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm56 · 2026-05-29 · vs Nationals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Nationals 7-5 (10-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+9.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.299 vs xwOBA 0.312 - hard contact not converting into hits
-7.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (14 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.1
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.24 vs xERA 4.42 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1.5
One-Run Game Record
11-12 in one-run games (48% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-0.9
Total CLS0
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|74 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Padres are right where they belong. Their CLS of 0 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 14th).