Padres CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
+10
CLS Score
Padres are getting what their run differential deserves. 15 wins vs 12.9 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
15
Wins
Expected: 12.9
96
Runs Scored
79
Runs Allowed
2.1
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2026-03-30 · vs Giants · at home
2-3
Lost at home against Giants
Lost 2-3 to Giants. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
2
Runs
3
Opp. Runs
-0.3
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW4 · 2026-03-30 · vs Giants · Home-0.3 pts
Lost 2-3 to Giants. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 2-3
MW2 · 2026-03-27 · vs Tigers · Home-0.2 pts
Lost to Tigers 2-5.
Score: 2-5
MW7 · 2026-04-03 · vs Red Sox · Away-0.2 pts
Lost to Red Sox 2-5.
Score: 2-5
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW18 · 2026-04-15 · vs Mariners · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Mariners 7-6. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 7-6
MW9 · 2026-04-05 · vs Red Sox · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Red Sox 8-6.
Score: 8-6
MW15 · 2026-04-11 · vs Rockies · Home+0.3 pts
Beat Rockies 9-5.
Score: 9-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their run differential predicts
+10.4
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.306 vs xwOBA 0.341 - hard contact not converting into hits
-5.6
One-Run Game Record
Not enough one-run games yet (3-1)
+4
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.35 vs xERA 3.83 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+0.1
Total CLS+10
Rank Per Signal
Where Padres ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
1-5.6
Batting Luck
1
30
17+0.1
Injury Burden
1
30
23+1.1
Pitching Luck
1
30
25+4
One-Run Game Record
1
30
26+10.4
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|140 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Padres are right where they belong. Their CLS of +10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 18th).