Padres CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 130 games played · View MLB standings →
+14
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Padres are getting what their run differential deserves. 70 wins vs 66 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
70
Wins
Expected: 66
556
Runs Scored
547
Runs Allowed
4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Cubs · at home
5-4
Lost at home against Cubs
Lost 4-5 to Cubs (3-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
4
Runs
5
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Cubs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Cubs (3-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
Gm48 · 2026-05-19 · vs Dodgers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Dodgers (6-6 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
Gm54 · 2026-05-26 · vs Phillies · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to Phillies (5-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm130 · 2026-08-22 · vs Twins · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Twins 7-5. 2 Twins errors helped pad the margin.
Score: 7-5
Gm123 · 2026-08-14 · vs Guardians · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Guardians 7-5 (12-10 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Gm122 · 2026-08-12 · vs Brewers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 11 innings against Brewers. Brewers left 13 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 4-3
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.307 vs xwOBA 0.316 - hard contact not converting into hits
-15.8
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+15.2
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.73 vs xERA 4.04 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+9.4
One-Run Game Record
19-17 in one-run games (53% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+3.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.5
Total CLS+14
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|32 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Padres are right where they belong. Their CLS of +14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 15th).