Padres CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 49 games played · View MLB standings →
-1
CLS Score
15th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Padres are getting what their run differential deserves. 29 wins vs 24.8 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
29
Wins
Expected: 24.8
200
Runs Scored
197
Runs Allowed
4.2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Cubs · at home
5-4
Lost at home against Cubs
Lost 4-5 to Cubs (3-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
4
Runs
5
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Cubs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Cubs (3-9 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
Gm48 · 2026-05-19 · vs Dodgers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Dodgers (6-6 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
Gm4 · 2026-03-30 · vs Giants · Home-0.3 pts
Lost 2-3 to Giants (3-6 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 2-3
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm33 · 2026-05-03 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against White Sox (9-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm28 · 2026-04-27 · vs Cubs · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Cubs 9-7 (14-8 H). Dominated with the bat (14 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 9-7
Gm25 · 2026-04-23 · vs Rockies · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Rockies 10-8. 2 Rockies errors helped pad the margin.
Score: 10-8
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+13.2
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.297 vs xwOBA 0.315 - hard contact not converting into hits
-9.4
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.10 vs xERA 3.71 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-6.9
One-Run Game Record
7-5 in one-run games (58% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+2.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (13 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.4
Total CLS-1
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|113 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Padres are right where they belong. Their CLS of -1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 14th).