Eintracht Frankfurt Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

+18

Luck Index Score

Eintracht Frankfurt have had fortune smiling on them. The Luck Index says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 37.54

Goals Scored

xG: 37.61

Goals Conceded

xGA: 40.42

1.5

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-21 · vs Union Berlin · at home

3-4

Lost at home against Union Berlin

One of those games where nothing went right. Eintracht Frankfurt generated 1.9 xG, comfortably more than the 1.64 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Eintracht Frankfurt. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

9'I. Ansah scores for Union Berlin

32'O. Burke scores for Union Berlin (assist: A. Ilic)

45'N. Brown scores for Eintracht Frankfurt (assist: E. Wahi)

53'O. Burke scores for Union Berlin (assist: A. Ilic)

56'O. Burke scores for Union Berlin (assist: A. Ilic)

80'C. Y. Uzun scores for Eintracht Frankfurt

87'J. Burkardt scores for Eintracht Frankfurt

1.9

xG Created

1.64

Opp. xG

-1.6

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-21 · vs Union Berlin · Home-1.6 pts

Lost 3-4 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 1.9-1.64

MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home-1.3 pts

Lost 1-3 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.1-1.15

MW27 · 2026-03-22 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Away-1.2 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.29-1.55

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-30 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away+1.5 pts

Won 3-1 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.56-1.37

MW22 · 2026-02-14 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home+1.3 pts

Won 3-0 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.64-1.19

MW14 · 2025-12-13 · vs FC Augsburg · Home+1.3 pts

Won 1-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.05-0.62

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 14 more goals than their 37.6 xG - clinical finishing

+17.4

Defensive Luck

Conceded 13 more goals than the 40.4 xGA opponents generated

-11.2

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+6.7

xPTS Gap

1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+2.6

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (112 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+1.5

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+0.7

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+0.3

Total Luck Index+18

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: stable|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Eintracht Frankfurt are riding their luck at +18. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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