Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-3
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt are getting roughly what they deserve. 5 points vs 5.51 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

5
Points
Expected: 5.51
9
Goals Scored
xG: 7.91
10
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.18
0.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-09-06 · vs FC Augsburg · at home
1-4
Lost at home against FC Augsburg

A defeat that defied the run of play. Eintracht Frankfurt created 2.22 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Eintracht Frankfurt. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'J. Burkardt scores for Eintracht Frankfurt (assist: Y. Ebnoutalib)
46'E. Baum scores for FC Augsburg
47'R. Fellhauer scores for FC Augsburg
65'A. Claude-Maurice scores for FC Augsburg (assist: H. Massengo)
89'F. Rieder scores for FC Augsburg
2.22
xG Created
1.13
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-09-06 · vs FC Augsburg · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 1-4 home despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 2.22-1.13
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Union Berlin · Away-0.1 pts
Drew 3-3 away. xG: 1.5-1.8.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 1.47-1.84
MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs SC Freiburg · Home+0.0 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 2.2-3.1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.18-3.09

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Away+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 away from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.04-2.12
MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs SC Freiburg · Home+0.0 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 2.2-3.1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.18-3.09
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Union Berlin · Away+-0.1 pts
Drew 3-3 away. xG: 1.5-1.8.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 1.47-1.84

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1.6
xPTS Gap
0.5 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 7.9 xG - clinical finishing
+1.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 8.2 xGA opponents generated
-1.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (25 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.3
Total CLS-3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Eintracht Frankfurt are right where they belong. Their CLS of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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