Eintracht Frankfurt CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

+18

CLS Score

Eintracht Frankfurt have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Points

Expected: 39.35

Goals Scored

xG: 40.35

Goals Conceded

xGA: 44.84

2.7

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-21 · vs Union Berlin · at home

3-4

Lost at home against Union Berlin

One of those games where nothing went right. Eintracht Frankfurt generated 1.9 xG, comfortably more than the 1.64 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Eintracht Frankfurt. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

9'I. Ansah scores for Union Berlin

32'O. Burke scores for Union Berlin (assist: A. Ilic)

45'N. Brown scores for Eintracht Frankfurt (assist: E. Wahi)

53'O. Burke scores for Union Berlin (assist: A. Ilic)

56'O. Burke scores for Union Berlin (assist: A. Ilic)

80'C. Y. Uzun scores for Eintracht Frankfurt

87'J. Burkardt scores for Eintracht Frankfurt

1.9

xG Created

1.64

Opp. xG

-1.6

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-21 · vs Union Berlin · Home-1.6 pts

Lost 3-4 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 1.9-1.64

MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home-1.3 pts

Lost 1-3 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.1-1.15

MW27 · 2026-03-22 · vs FSV Mainz 05 · Away-1.2 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.29-1.55

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW29 · 2026-04-11 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+2.2 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.29-2.33

MW2 · 2025-08-30 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away+1.5 pts

Won 3-1 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.56-1.37

MW22 · 2026-02-14 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home+1.3 pts

Won 3-0 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.64-1.19

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 15 more goals than their 40.4 xG - clinical finishing

+15.1

Defensive Luck

Conceded 12 more goals than the 44.8 xGA opponents generated

-9.5

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+5.8

xPTS Gap

3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+3.8

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (126 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+1.2

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+0.9

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+0.7

Total CLS+18

Rank Per Signal

Where Eintracht Frankfurt ranks among Bundesliga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

Defensive Luck

-9.5

Injury Burden

+1.2

Shot Volume Gap

+0.7

xPTS Gap

+3.8

Discipline

+0.9

Schedule Strength

+5.8

Finishing Luck

+15.1

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Eintracht Frankfurt are riding their luck at +18. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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