Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+12
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt are getting roughly what they deserve. 44 points vs 44.46 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

44
Points
Expected: 44.46
61
Goals Scored
xG: 45.79
65
Goals Conceded
xGA: 50.72
0.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-21 · vs Union Berlin · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Union Berlin

One of those games where nothing went right. Eintracht Frankfurt generated 1.9 xG, comfortably more than the 1.64 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Eintracht Frankfurt. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'I. Ansah scores for Union Berlin
32'O. Burke scores for Union Berlin (assist: A. Ilic)
45'N. Brown scores for Eintracht Frankfurt (assist: E. Wahi)
53'O. Burke scores for Union Berlin (assist: A. Ilic)
56'O. Burke scores for Union Berlin (assist: A. Ilic)
80'C. Y. Uzun scores for Eintracht Frankfurt
87'J. Burkardt scores for Eintracht Frankfurt
1.9
xG Created
1.64
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-21 · vs Union Berlin · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 3-4 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 1.9-1.64
MW32 · 2026-05-02 · vs Hamburger SV · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.65-0.62
MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.1-1.15

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW29 · 2026-04-11 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.29-2.33
MW2 · 2025-08-30 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.56-1.37
MW22 · 2026-02-14 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home+1.3 pts
Won 3-0 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.64-1.19

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 15 more goals than their 45.8 xG - clinical finishing
+16.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 14 more goals than the 50.7 xGA opponents generated
-13.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+9.5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (139 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.2
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.5 xPTS gap)
-0.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Total CLS+12

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Eintracht Frankfurt are right where they belong. Their CLS of +12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available