Season

Borussia Dortmund CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+13

CLS Score

4th luckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund are getting roughly what they deserve. 12 points vs 7.71 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 7.71

Goals Scored

xG: 6.65

Goals Conceded

xGA: 3.44

4.3

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 3 · 2026-09-12 · vs SC Paderborn 07 · at home

3-0

Won at home against SC Paderborn 07

One of those games where nothing went right. Borussia Dortmund generated 1.76 xG, comfortably more than the 0.49 their opponent managed. SC Paderborn 07 generated just 0.49 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Borussia Dortmund. They got 3. That's 0.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

5'F. Silva scores for Borussia Dortmund (assist: S. Guirassy)

80'F. Nmecha scores for Borussia Dortmund (assist: M. Beier)

89'F. Nmecha scores for Borussia Dortmund (assist: M. Sabitzer)

1.76

xG Created

0.49

Opp. xG

0.7

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs SC Paderborn 07 · Home+0.7 pts

Won 3-0 home. xG: 1.8-0.5.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.76-0.49

MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away+1.1 pts

Won 3-2 away from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.02-1.17

MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Hamburger SV · Home+1.2 pts

Won 2-0 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.53-0.91

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Away+1.3 pts

Won 1-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.34-0.87

MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs Hamburger SV · Home+1.2 pts

Won 2-0 home from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.53-0.91

MW2 · 2026-09-05 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim · Away+1.1 pts

Won 3-2 away from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.02-1.17

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+8.9

Injury Burden

High injury burden (56 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-5

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+3.8

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 more goals than their 6.7 xG - clinical finishing

+3.2

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+1.7

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 3.4 xGA opponents generated

+1.4

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-1

Total CLS+13

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: improving|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Borussia Dortmund are right where they belong. Their CLS of +13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 8th).

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