Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

+36
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+20.3 CLS impact). 15 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

73
Points
Expected: 58.46
70
Goals Scored
xG: 63.79
34
Goals Conceded
xGA: 39.66
14.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 29 · 2026-04-11 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Bayer Leverkusen

One of those games where nothing went right. Borussia Dortmund generated 1.3 xG, comfortably more than the 0.63 their opponent managed. Bayer Leverkusen generated just 0.63 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Borussia Dortmund. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
42'R. Andrich scores for Bayer Leverkusen
1.3
xG Created
0.63
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW29 · 2026-04-11 · vs Bayer Leverkusen · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.3-0.63
MW11 · 2025-11-22 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Home-1.1 pts
Drew 3-3 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 2.99-1.55
MW7 · 2025-10-18 · vs Bayern München · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 1-2 away. xG: 1.6-2.5.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.58-2.48

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW9 · 2025-10-31 · vs FC Augsburg · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.32-0.83
MW28 · 2026-04-04 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.61-0.76
MW21 · 2026-02-07 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.23-1.46

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
15 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+20.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 39.7 xGA opponents generated
+7.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+7.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 63.8 xG - clinical finishing
+5.3
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (125 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.8
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.6
Total CLS+36

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Borussia Dortmund are riding their luck at +36. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available