Borussia Dortmund Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

+45

Luck Index Score

Borussia Dortmund have been living on borrowed time. 64 points from 48.61 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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Points

Expected: 48.61

Goals Scored

xG: 53.25

Goals Conceded

xGA: 32.21

15.4

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 11 · 2025-11-22 · vs VfB Stuttgart · at home

3-3

Drew at home against VfB Stuttgart

A draw that felt like a loss. Borussia Dortmund created 2.99 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Borussia Dortmund. They got 1. That's 1.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

34'E. Can scores for Borussia Dortmund

41'M. Beier scores for Borussia Dortmund

47'D. Undav scores for VfB Stuttgart (assist: B. El Khannouss)

71'D. Undav scores for VfB Stuttgart (assist: M. Mittelstadt)

89'K. Adeyemi scores for Borussia Dortmund (assist: M. Beier)

90'D. Undav scores for VfB Stuttgart (assist: C. Fuhrich)

2.99

xG Created

1.55

Opp. xG

-1.1

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-22 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Home-1.1 pts

Drew 3-3 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 1.

Score: 3-3 | xG: 2.99-1.55

MW7 · 2025-10-18 · vs Bayern München · Away-0.9 pts

Lost 1-2 away. xG: 1.6-2.5.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.58-2.48

MW16 · 2026-01-09 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Away-0.8 pts

Drew 3-3 away. xG: 2.4-1.6.

Score: 3-3 | xG: 2.38-1.58

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW9 · 2025-10-31 · vs FC Augsburg · Away+2.2 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.32-0.83

MW28 · 2026-04-04 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Away+1.8 pts

Won 2-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.61-0.76

MW21 · 2026-02-07 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away+1.8 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.23-1.46

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

15 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+25.9

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+10.1

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-8.3

Finishing Luck

Scored 7 more goals than their 53.3 xG - clinical finishing

+6.4

Defensive Luck

Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 32.2 xGA opponents generated

+6.4

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (94 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+5.2

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-0.7

Total Luck Index+45

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Results Expected to Decline

Last 5: improving|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At +45, Borussia Dortmund are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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