Season

Barcelona CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+19

CLS Score

2nd luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Barcelona have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+9.6 CLS impact). 5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 16.29

Goals Scored

xG: 28.52

Goals Conceded

xGA: 7.62

4.7

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 7 · 2026-09-19 · vs Sevilla · away

3-1

Won away against Sevilla

One of those games where nothing went right. Barcelona created 3.47 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. Sevilla created almost nothing - just 0.4 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.7 points for Barcelona. They got 3. That's 0.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

19'Y. Fofana scores for Sevilla (assist: F. Correia)

22'Raphinha scores for Barcelona (assist: A. Christensen)

52'Raphinha scores for Barcelona (assist: Lamine Yamal)

69'Raphinha scores for Barcelona (assist: Lamine Yamal)

3.47

xG Created

0.4

Opp. xG

0.3

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW7 · 2026-09-19 · vs Sevilla · Away+0.3 pts

Won 3-1 away. xG: 3.5-0.4.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 3.47-0.4

MW2 · 2026-08-27 · vs Athletic Club · Home+0.3 pts

Won 2-0 home. xG: 4.2-0.3.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 4.23-0.25

MW4 · 2026-09-06 · vs Valencia · Away+0.3 pts

Won 5-0 away. xG: 4.1-0.7.

Score: 5-0 | xG: 4.08-0.66

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-13 · vs Levante · Away+1.5 pts

Won 4-2 away from 2.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.

Score: 4-2 | xG: 2.58-2.42

MW6 · 2026-09-16 · vs Racing Santander · Home+1.3 pts

Won 7-2 home from 6.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 7-2 | xG: 6.74-1.98

MW3 · 2026-08-31 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Home+0.7 pts

Won 5-2 home. xG: 3.0-1.2.

Score: 5-2 | xG: 3.04-1.21

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+9.6

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 more goals than their 28.5 xG - clinical finishing

+4.2

Injury Burden

High injury burden (45 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-2.5

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+1.4

Defensive Luck

Conceded 0.6 fewer goals than the 7.6 xGA opponents generated

+1.1

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+0.2

Total CLS+19

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: improving|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Barcelona are riding their luck at +19. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 6th in the league - a tough run. That makes the correction more likely.

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