Barcelona

Barcelona CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

+61
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Barcelona have been living on borrowed time. 94 points from 70.78 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+38.0 CLS impact). 23 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

94
Points
Expected: 70.78
94
Goals Scored
xG: 85.18
33
Goals Conceded
xGA: 43.97
23.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 20 · 2026-01-18 · vs Real Sociedad · away
1-2
Lost away against Real Sociedad

A defeat that defied the run of play. Barcelona created 3.68 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Real Sociedad generated just 1.01 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Barcelona. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
32'M. Oyarzabal scores for Real Sociedad (assist: G. Guedes)
70'M. Rashford scores for Barcelona (assist: Lamine Yamal)
71'G. Guedes scores for Real Sociedad (assist: C. Soler)
88'Carlos Soler (Real Sociedad) - Red Card
3.68
xG Created
1.01
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-18 · vs Real Sociedad · Away-2.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 3.7 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0. Read match report →
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.68-1.01
MW24 · 2026-02-16 · vs Girona · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.7 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.72-2.86
MW36 · 2026-05-13 · vs Alaves · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.59-0.66

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-03-07 · vs Athletic Club · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.4-0.85
MW32 · 2026-04-22 · vs Celta Vigo · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.23-1.41
MW29 · 2026-03-22 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Home+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.39-1.56

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
23 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+38
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-17.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 9 more goals than their 85.2 xG - clinical finishing
+14.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 11 fewer goals than the 44.0 xGA opponents generated
+12.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+12.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+5.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (177 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.9
Total CLS+61

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: improving|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +61, Barcelona are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches
05-23
A
Valencia
Bet