Everton

Everton CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+28
CLS Score

Everton have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

47
Points
Expected: 39.62
40
Goals Scored
xG: 39.43
39
Goals Conceded
xGA: 48.84
7.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 26 · 2026-02-10 · vs Bournemouth · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Bournemouth

A defeat that defied the run of play. Everton created 2.94 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Bournemouth generated just 1.34 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Everton. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
42'I. Ndiaye scores for Everton
61'Rayan scores for Bournemouth (assist: A. Truffert)
64'A. Adli scores for Bournemouth (assist: J. Hill)
69'Jake O'Brien (Everton) - Red Card
2.94
xG Created
1.34
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-02-10 · vs Bournemouth · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.9 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.94-1.34
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Tottenham · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 0-3 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.74-1.72
MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Aston Villa · Home-1.4 pts
Drew 0-0 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 2.08-0.54

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-24 · vs Manchester United · Away+2.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.21-1.71
MW22 · 2026-01-18 · vs Aston Villa · Away+2.3 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.51-1.44
MW2 · 2025-08-24 · vs Brighton · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.6-2.43

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+12.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 10 fewer goals than the 48.8 xGA opponents generated
+11.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (95 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+7.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-7.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.6 more goals than their 39.4 xG - clinical finishing
+1.9
Total CLS+28

Rank Per Signal

Where Everton ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Discipline
1
20
-2.2
6
Schedule Strength
1
20
-7.6
12
Finishing Luck
1
20
+1.9
16
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+4.1
17
xPTS Gap
1
20
+12.8
18
Injury Burden
1
20
+7.8
20
Defensive Luck
1
20
+11.2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Everton are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

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