Everton

Everton CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Premier League standings →

+15
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Everton are getting roughly what they deserve. 9 points vs 5.69 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one. Top driver: Defensive Luck (+5.1 CLS impact). Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 4.8 xGA opponents generated

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

9
Points
Expected: 5.69
6
Goals Scored
xG: 3.97
3
Goals Conceded
xGA: 4.81
3.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Manchester United · at home
2-2
Drew at home against Manchester United

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Everton. They got 1. That's 0.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
46'B. Mbeumo scores for Manchester United (assist: K. Mainoo)
83'T. George scores for Everton (assist: H. Hackney)
88'B. Sesko scores for Manchester United (assist: L. Shaw)
90'A. Maitland-Niles scores for Everton
1.01
xG Created
0.69
Opp. xG
-0.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Manchester United · Home-0.6 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 1.0-0.7.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.01-0.69
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Bournemouth · Away-0.2 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.8-2.2.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.84-2.16
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Tottenham · Away-0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Crystal Palace · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.12-1.96
MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Ipswich · Home+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected. Read match report →
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0-0
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Tottenham · Away+-0.0 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 0.0-0.0.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 0-0

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 4.8 xGA opponents generated
+5.1
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (10 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 4.0 xG - wasting chances
-2.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.3
Total CLS+15

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Everton are right where they belong. Their CLS of +15 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).

Next Matches
10-11
A
Hull City
Bet
10-17
H
Chelsea
Bet
10-24
A
Arsenal
Bet
11-02
A
Newcastle
Bet
11-06
H
Coventry
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
6
of 20
No change from current 6
Projected Points
55
from 9 now (+46 remaining)
Pace
1.14
expected pts per game · 33 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 33 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Everton's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Barry FWD£5.78.4%23.5-1.5Underperforming xG — buy the dip
Dewsbury-Hall MID£6.65.8%11.0+0.0Finishing in line with xG
George MID£5.50.9%10.3+0.7Finishing in line with xG
Beto FWD£5.40.6%00.1-0.1Finishing in line with xG
Grealish MID£6.50.5%00.0-0.0Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).