Everton Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+31

Luck Index Score

Everton have been living on borrowed time. 46 points from 37.84 expected? They're 8.16 points richer than they should be. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

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Points

Expected: 37.84

Goals Scored

xG: 37.12

Goals Conceded

xGA: 44.99

8.2

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 26 · 2026-02-10 · vs Bournemouth · at home

1-2

Lost at home against Bournemouth

A defeat that defied the run of play. Everton created 2.94 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Bournemouth generated just 1.34 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Everton. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

42'I. Ndiaye scores for Everton

61'Rayan scores for Bournemouth (assist: A. Truffert)

64'A. Adli scores for Bournemouth (assist: J. Hill)

69'Jake O'Brien (Everton) - Red Card

2.94

xG Created

1.34

Opp. xG

-2.2

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-02-10 · vs Bournemouth · Home-2.2 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 2.9 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.94-1.34

MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Tottenham · Home-1.4 pts

Lost 0-3 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.74-1.72

MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Aston Villa · Home-1.4 pts

Drew 0-0 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.

Score: 0-0 | xG: 2.08-0.54

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-24 · vs Manchester United · Away+2.7 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.21-1.71

MW22 · 2026-01-18 · vs Aston Villa · Away+2.3 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.51-1.44

MW2 · 2025-08-24 · vs Brighton · Home+2.1 pts

Won 2-0 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.6-2.43

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

8 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+16

Defensive Luck

Conceded 10 fewer goals than the 45.0 xGA opponents generated

+12

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-9

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (96 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-2

Finishing Luck

Scored 0 more goals than their 37.1 xG - clinical finishing

Total Luck Index+31

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Everton are riding their luck at +31. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

04-11

Brentford

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04-19

Liverpool

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04-25

West Ham

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05-04

Manchester City

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05-09

Crystal Palace

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