Liverpool

Liverpool Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-20
Luck Index Score

Liverpool are getting roughly what they deserve. 49 points vs 50.94 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

49
Points
Expected: 50.94
50
Goals Scored
xG: 50.55
42
Goals Conceded
xGA: 37.09
1.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 29 · 2026-03-03 · vs Wolves · away
1-2
Lost away against Wolves

A defeat that defied the run of play. Liverpool generated 1.83 xG, comfortably more than the 0.44 their opponent managed. Wolves created almost nothing - just 0.44 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Liverpool. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
78'R. Gomes scores for Wolves (assist: T. Arokodare)
83'M. Salah scores for Liverpool
90'Andre scores for Wolves (assist: J. Tchatchoua)
1.83
xG Created
0.44
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW29 · 2026-03-03 · vs Wolves · Away-2.3 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.83-0.44
MW8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Manchester United · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.8 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.75-1.34
MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Chelsea · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.95-1

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW17 · 2025-12-20 · vs Tottenham · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.66-1.07
MW2 · 2025-08-25 · vs Newcastle · Away+1.9 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.69-0.98
MW3 · 2025-08-31 · vs Arsenal · Home+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.52-0.49

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (189 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 more goals than the 37.1 xGA opponents generated
-7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 50.5 xG - clinical finishing
0
Total Luck Index-20

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Manchester United
Manchester United
15W-10D-6L
+28Lucky
#3 in league
Everton
Everton
13W-7D-11L
+31Lucky
#8 in league
Manchester City
Manchester City
18W-7D-5L
+49Blessed
#2 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -20, Liverpool are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
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