Liverpool CURSD Luck Score
2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Premier League standings →
Liverpool are getting roughly what they deserve. 9 points vs 6.22 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
A draw that felt like a loss. Liverpool created 2.98 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Liverpool. They got 1. That's 1.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsLiverpool are right where they belong. Their CLS of +9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 5th in the league - a tough run.
Projected Finish
Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 33 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.
Fantasy Outlook
Most-Owned Attackers
| Player | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szoboszlai MID | £6.9 | 32.4% | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Isak FWD | £9.1 | 21.9% | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Gakpo MID | £7.2 | 12.0% | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Wirtz MID | £7.3 | 5.7% | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | Underperforming xG — buy the dip |
| Barcola MID | £8.0 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | Finishing in line with xG |
Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).