Liverpool

Liverpool CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-11
CLS Score

Liverpool are getting roughly what they deserve. 55 points vs 54.64 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

55
Points
Expected: 54.64
54
Goals Scored
xG: 53.81
43
Goals Conceded
xGA: 38.98
0.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 29 · 2026-03-03 · vs Wolves · away
1-2
Lost away against Wolves

A defeat that defied the run of play. Liverpool generated 1.83 xG, comfortably more than the 0.44 their opponent managed. Wolves created almost nothing - just 0.44 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Liverpool. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
78'R. Gomes scores for Wolves (assist: T. Arokodare)
83'M. Salah scores for Liverpool
90'Andre scores for Wolves (assist: J. Tchatchoua)
1.83
xG Created
0.44
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW29 · 2026-03-03 · vs Wolves · Away-2.3 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.83-0.44
MW8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Manchester United · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.8 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.75-1.34
MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Chelsea · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.95-1

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW17 · 2025-12-20 · vs Tottenham · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.66-1.07
MW2 · 2025-08-25 · vs Newcastle · Away+1.9 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.69-0.98
MW3 · 2025-08-31 · vs Arsenal · Home+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.52-0.49

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (196 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-5.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 39.0 xGA opponents generated
-5.5
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.6
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.4 xPTS gap)
+1.3
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 53.8 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+1.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1
Total CLS-11

Rank Per Signal

Where Liverpool ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Injury Burden
1
20
-6.9
4
Defensive Luck
1
20
-5.5
7
Schedule Strength
1
20
-5.8
10
Finishing Luck
1
20
+1.3
13
xPTS Gap
1
20
+1.3
13
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+1
19
Discipline
1
20
+3.6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Liverpool are right where they belong. Their CLS of -11 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 7th).

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