Liverpool

Liverpool CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Premier League standings →

-8
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Liverpool are getting roughly what they deserve. 59 points vs 58.33 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

59
Points
Expected: 58.33
62
Goals Scored
xG: 57.69
52
Goals Conceded
xGA: 45.85
0.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 29 · 2026-03-03 · vs Wolves · away
1-2
Lost away against Wolves

A defeat that defied the run of play. Liverpool generated 1.83 xG, comfortably more than the 0.44 their opponent managed. Wolves created almost nothing - just 0.44 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Liverpool. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
78'R. Gomes scores for Wolves (assist: T. Arokodare)
83'M. Salah scores for Liverpool
90'Andre scores for Wolves (assist: J. Tchatchoua)
1.83
xG Created
0.44
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW29 · 2026-03-03 · vs Wolves · Away-2.3 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.83-0.44
MW8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Manchester United · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.8 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.75-1.34
MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Chelsea · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.95-1

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW34 · 2026-04-25 · vs Crystal Palace · Home+2.4 pts
Won 3-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected. Read match report →
Score: 3-1 | xG: 0.91-2.32
MW17 · 2025-12-20 · vs Tottenham · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.66-1.07
MW2 · 2025-08-25 · vs Newcastle · Away+1.9 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.69-0.98

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (233 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 more goals than the 45.9 xGA opponents generated
-8
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 57.7 xG - clinical finishing
+6.5
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4.1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3.8
xPTS Gap
0.7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.4
Total CLS-8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Liverpool are right where they belong. Their CLS of -8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches
05-24
H
Brentford
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
5
of 20
No change from current 5
Projected Points
61
from 59 now (+2 remaining)
Pace
1.58
expected pts per game · 1 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 1 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Liverpool has scored 4 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Ekitiké FWD£9.015.8%1110.1+0.9Finishing in line with xG
M.Salah MID£14.013.9%78.0-1.0Finishing in line with xG
Szoboszlai MID£7.113.7%64.3+1.7Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Wirtz MID£8.38.5%56.1-1.1Underperforming xG — buy the dip
Gakpo MID£7.35.6%78.1-1.1Underperforming xG — buy the dip

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).