Manchester United

Manchester United CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+34
CLS Score

Manchester United have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

58
Points
Expected: 51.73
58
Goals Scored
xG: 54.78
45
Goals Conceded
xGA: 42.61
6.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2025-11-24 · vs Everton · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Everton

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Manchester United generated 1.71 xG, comfortably more than the 0.21 their opponent managed. Everton created almost nothing - just 0.21 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Manchester United. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
13'Idrissa Gueye (Everton) - Red Card
29'K. Dewsbury-Hall scores for Everton (assist: J. Garner)
1.71
xG Created
0.21
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-24 · vs Everton · Home-2.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.71-0.21
MW21 · 2026-01-07 · vs Burnley · Away-1.7 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.55-0.24
MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Arsenal · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.52-1.31

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW33 · 2026-04-18 · vs Chelsea · Away+2.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.29-1.57
MW8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Liverpool · Away+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.34-2.75
MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Arsenal · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.71-1.19

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+11.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+10.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 54.8 xG - clinical finishing
+6.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (116 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.6
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 42.6 xGA opponents generated
-3.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.9
Total CLS+34

Rank Per Signal

Where Manchester United ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

7
Defensive Luck
1
20
-3.7
14
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+2.9
15
Finishing Luck
1
20
+6.1
16
xPTS Gap
1
20
+11.1
16
Injury Burden
1
20
+4.6
17
Discipline
1
20
+2.9
17
Schedule Strength
1
20
+10.1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Manchester United are riding their luck at +34. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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