Manchester United CURSD Luck Score
2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Premier League standings →
Manchester United can't catch a break. 5 points when the data says they deserve closer to 7.2? 2 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-5.5 CLS impact). 2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Manchester United generated 1.83 xG, comfortably more than the 1.01 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Manchester United. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsAt -17, Manchester United are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 14th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.
Projected Finish
Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 33 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.
Fantasy Outlook
Most-Owned Attackers
| Player | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Fernandes MID | £11.9 | 38.3% | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Mbeumo MID | £7.9 | 20.4% | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | Underperforming xG — buy the dip |
| Cunha MID | £7.9 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Šeško FWD | £7.0 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Tielemans MID | £5.8 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | Finishing in line with xG |
Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).