Manchester United

Manchester United CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 38 matches played · View Premier League standings →

+40
CLS Score
3rd luckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Manchester United have been living on borrowed time. 71 points from 60.6 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+15.8 CLS impact). 10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

71
Points
Expected: 60.6
69
Goals Scored
xG: 64.91
50
Goals Conceded
xGA: 48.48
10.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 12 · 2025-11-24 · vs Everton · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Everton

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Manchester United generated 1.71 xG, comfortably more than the 0.21 their opponent managed. Everton created almost nothing - just 0.21 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Manchester United. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
13'Idrissa Gueye (Everton) - Red Card
29'K. Dewsbury-Hall scores for Everton (assist: J. Garner)
1.71
xG Created
0.21
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-24 · vs Everton · Home-2.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.71-0.21
MW21 · 2026-01-07 · vs Burnley · Away-1.7 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.55-0.24
MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Arsenal · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.52-1.31

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW33 · 2026-04-18 · vs Chelsea · Away+2.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected. Read match report →
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.29-1.57
MW8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Liverpool · Away+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.34-2.75
MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Arsenal · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.71-1.19

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+15.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+7.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 64.9 xG - clinical finishing
+6.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (127 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+5.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+5.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 48.5 xGA opponents generated
-2.8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.2
Total CLS+40

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Manchester United are riding their luck at +40. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

Projected Finish

Projected Position
3
of 20
No change from current 3
Projected Points
71
from 71 now (+0 remaining)
Pace
1.59
expected pts per game · 0 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 0 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Manchester United has scored 4 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
B.Fernandes MID£10.448.0%910.8-1.8Underperforming xG — buy the dip
Mbeumo MID£8.315.0%1112.0-1.0Finishing in line with xG
Cunha MID£8.18.7%106.9+3.1Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Šeško FWD£7.24.6%119.2+1.8Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Casemiro MID£5.83.8%95.4+3.6Overperforming xG — sell candidate

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).