Juventus

Juventus CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+3
CLS Score
12th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Juventus are getting roughly what they deserve. 68 points vs 70.3 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

68
Points
Expected: 70.3
59
Goals Scored
xG: 66.99
32
Goals Conceded
xGA: 32.17
2.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Fiorentina · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Fiorentina

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Juventus generated 1.98 xG, comfortably more than the 0.47 their opponent managed. Fiorentina created almost nothing - just 0.47 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Juventus. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
-5'Luca Ranieri (Fiorentina) - Red Card
34'C. Ndour scores for Fiorentina (assist: M. Solomon)
83'R. Mandragora scores for Fiorentina
1.98
xG Created
0.47
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Fiorentina · Home-2.4 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.98-0.47
MW21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Cagliari · Away-2.4 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.35-0.11
MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Lazio · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.49-0.78

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-04-11 · vs Atalanta · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.61-1.68
MW3 · 2025-09-13 · vs Inter · Home+1.9 pts
Won 4-3 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 0.68-0.96
MW2 · 2025-08-31 · vs Genoa · Away+1.3 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.03-0.55

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 8 fewer goals than their 67.0 xG - wasting chances
-11
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+7.6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+5.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (130 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.2
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.2
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 32.2 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-1.9
Total CLS+3

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Juventus are right where they belong. Their CLS of +3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches
05-24
A
Torino
Bet