Juventus

Juventus CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

-6
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Juventus are getting roughly what they deserve. 10 points vs 10.7 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

10
Points
Expected: 10.7
8
Goals Scored
xG: 7.76
4
Goals Conceded
xGA: 2.39
0.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-09-06 · vs AC Milan · at home
1-1
Drew at home against AC Milan

A draw that felt like a loss. Juventus generated 1.59 xG, comfortably more than the 0.11 their opponent managed. AC Milan created almost nothing - just 0.11 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Juventus. They got 1. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
68'A. Cisse scores for AC Milan (assist: S. Chukwueze)
90'F. Gatti scores for Juventus (assist: T. Koopmeiners)
1.59
xG Created
0.11
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs AC Milan · Home-1.5 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.59-0.11
MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Sassuolo · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.1-1.02
MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Frosinone · Away+0.5 pts
Won 1-0 away. xG: 2.2-0.4.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 2.18-0.41

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Atalanta · Home+1.1 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.31-0.6
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Parma · Home+0.6 pts
Won 2-0 home. xG: 1.6-0.3.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.58-0.25
MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Frosinone · Away+0.5 pts
Won 1-0 away. xG: 2.2-0.4.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 2.18-0.41

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (51 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 2.4 xGA opponents generated
-1.2
xPTS Gap
0.7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.1
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 7.8 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
0
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
0
Total CLS-6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Juventus are right where they belong. Their CLS of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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