Juventus

Juventus Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

-2

Luck Index Score

Juventus are getting roughly what they deserve. 57 points vs 59.29 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

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57

Points

Expected: 59.29

54

Goals Scored

xG: 57.65

29

Goals Conceded

xGA: 27.55

2.3

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 18 · 2026-01-03 · vs Lecce · at home

1-1

Drew at home against Lecce

A draw that felt like a loss. Juventus created 2.77 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Lecce created almost nothing - just 0.26 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.7 points for Juventus. They got 1. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

65'L. Mazzitelli scores for Cagliari (assist: G. Gaetano)

2.77

xG Created

0.26

Opp. xG

-1.7

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Cagliari · Away-2.4 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.35-0.11

MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Lazio · Away-1.9 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.49-0.78

MW18 · 2026-01-03 · vs Lecce · Home-1.7 pts

Drew 1-1 home despite 2.8 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.77-0.26

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-09-13 · vs Inter · Home+1.9 pts

Won 4-3 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 4-3 | xG: 0.68-0.96

MW2 · 2025-08-31 · vs Genoa · Away+1.3 pts

Won 1-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.03-0.55

MW31 · 2026-04-06 · vs Genoa · Home+1.1 pts

Won 2-0 home from 2.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 2.2-1.37

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 fewer goals than their 57.6 xG - wasting chances

-4.9

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+4.8

xPTS Gap

2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-3.6

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 more goals than the 27.6 xGA opponents generated

-2.7

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+2.5

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+1.7

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (115 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+0.2

Total Luck Index-2

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Inter

AC Milan

Torino

Napoli

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

Why?

Juventus are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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