Juventus

Juventus CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+6
CLS Score

Juventus are getting roughly what they deserve. 63 points vs 61.82 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

63
Points
Expected: 61.82
57
Goals Scored
xG: 59.6
29
Goals Conceded
xGA: 29.87
1.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Cagliari · away
0-1
Lost away against Cagliari

A defeat that defied the run of play. Juventus generated 1.35 xG, comfortably more than the 0.11 their opponent managed. Cagliari created almost nothing - just 0.11 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Juventus. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
65'L. Mazzitelli scores for Cagliari (assist: G. Gaetano)
1.35
xG Created
0.11
Opp. xG
-2.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Cagliari · Away-2.4 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.35-0.11
MW8 · 2025-10-26 · vs Lazio · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.49-0.78
MW18 · 2026-01-03 · vs Lecce · Home-1.7 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 2.8 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.77-0.26

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW32 · 2026-04-11 · vs Atalanta · Away+2.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.61-1.68
MW3 · 2025-09-13 · vs Inter · Home+1.9 pts
Won 4-3 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 0.68-0.96
MW2 · 2025-08-31 · vs Genoa · Away+1.3 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.03-0.55

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 59.6 xG - wasting chances
-2.2
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (126 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.9 more goals than the 29.9 xGA opponents generated
-0.3
Total CLS+6

Rank Per Signal

Where Juventus ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

9
Defensive Luck
1
20
-0.3
10
Finishing Luck
1
20
-2.2
10
Schedule Strength
1
20
+0.4
11
xPTS Gap
1
20
+1.7
11
Injury Burden
1
20
-0.7
14
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+3.4
19
Discipline
1
20
+3.7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Juventus are right where they belong. Their CLS of +6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 13th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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