FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →

-37
Luck Index Score

FSV Mainz 05 can't catch a break. 33 points when the data says they deserve closer to 36.98? 11 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

33
Points
Expected: 36.98
35
Goals Scored
xG: 41.37
43
Goals Conceded
xGA: 47.5
4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 25 · 2026-03-07 · vs VfB Stuttgart · at home
2-2
Drew at home against VfB Stuttgart

A draw that felt like a loss. FSV Mainz 05 created 2.73 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 2. VfB Stuttgart generated just 0.98 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for FSV Mainz 05. They got 1. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
60'Paul Nebel (FSV Mainz 05) - Red Card
90'M. Bulter scores for 1. FC Köln (assist: L. Waldschmidt)
2.73
xG Created
0.98
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-08-24 · vs 1. FC Köln · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.52-1.36
MW25 · 2026-03-07 · vs VfB Stuttgart · Home-1.4 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 2.7 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.73-0.98
MW2 · 2025-08-31 · vs VfL Wolfsburg · Away-1.3 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.95-0.62

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW17 · 2026-01-13 · vs 1. FC Heidenheim · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.39-1.55
MW26 · 2026-03-15 · vs Werder Bremen · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.08-1.08
MW27 · 2026-03-22 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Home+1.4 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.55-1.29

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-13.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 6 fewer goals than their 41.4 xG - wasting chances
-11.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (162 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 47.5 xGA opponents generated
+6.7
xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-6.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3.4
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.1
Total Luck Index-37

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
10W-9D-9L
+18Lucky
#7 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: improving|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -37, FSV Mainz 05 are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. Recent form suggests the tide is already turning.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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