FSV Mainz 05 CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 Season · View Bundesliga standings →
FSV Mainz 05: 34 points from 41 expected, a gap of 6.7. Finishing has cost them: 8 fewer goals than their 44.2 xG should produce. 12 losses, 10 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. FSV Mainz 05 generated 1.52 xG, comfortably more than the 1.36 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for FSV Mainz 05. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Rank Per Signal
Where FSV Mainz 05 ranks among Bundesliga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
Future Outlook
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsFSV Mainz 05 are deeply cursed at -40. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports. Their next 4 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch. That eases the path to correction.