Season

FSV Mainz 05 CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-39

CLS Score

3rd unluckiest of 19 in the Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 can't catch a break. 40 points when the data says they deserve closer to 47.35? 14 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Finishing Luck (-14.2 CLS impact). Scored 11 fewer goals than their 54.8 xG - wasting chances

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 47.35

Goals Scored

xG: 54.75

Goals Conceded

xGA: 56.94

7.3

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 31 · 2026-04-25 · vs Bayern München · at home

3-4

Lost at home against Bayern München

One of those games where nothing went right. FSV Mainz 05 created 2.69 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for FSV Mainz 05. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

15'D. Kohr scores for FSV Mainz 05 (assist: K. Sano)

29'P. Nebel scores for FSV Mainz 05

45'S. Becker scores for FSV Mainz 05

53'N. Jackson scores for Bayern München (assist: K. Laimer)

73'M. Olise scores for Bayern München (assist: K. Laimer)

80'J. Musiala scores for Bayern München

83'H. Kane scores for Bayern München

2.69

xG Created

2.21

Opp. xG

-1.6

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW31 · 2026-04-25 · vs Bayern München · Home-1.6 pts

Lost 3-4 home despite 2.7 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 3-4 | xG: 2.69-2.21

MW1 · 2025-08-24 · vs 1. FC Köln · Home-1.5 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.52-1.36

MW30 · 2026-04-19 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away-1.4 pts

Drew 1-1 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.32-0.62

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW17 · 2026-01-13 · vs 1. FC Heidenheim · Home+1.7 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.39-1.55

MW26 · 2026-03-15 · vs Werder Bremen · Away+1.6 pts

Won 2-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.08-1.08

MW27 · 2026-03-22 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Home+1.4 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.55-1.29

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 11 fewer goals than their 54.8 xG - wasting chances

-14.2

xPTS Gap

7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-10.3

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-9.1

Injury Burden

High injury burden (211 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-7.1

Defensive Luck

Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 56.9 xGA opponents generated

+5.6

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-2.3

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-1.6

Total CLS-39

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: declining|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -39, FSV Mainz 05 are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 7 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available