FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 4 matches played · View Bundesliga standings →

-6
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 18 in the Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 are getting roughly what they deserve. 7 points vs 7.14 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 7.14
10
Goals Scored
xG: 8.94
6
Goals Conceded
xGA: 6.2
0.1
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-09-12 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · at home
1-3
Lost at home against Eintracht Frankfurt

One of those games where nothing went right. FSV Mainz 05 created 2.12 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for FSV Mainz 05. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
9'C. Uzun scores for Eintracht Frankfurt (assist: J. Burkardt)
43'Nadiem Amiri scores for FSV Mainz 05
45'J. Burkardt scores for Eintracht Frankfurt (assist: J. Maluze)
60'C. Uzun scores for Eintracht Frankfurt (assist: M. Gotze)
89'P. Tietz scores for FSV Mainz 05 (assist: O. Ruoppi)
2.12
xG Created
2.04
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-12 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 2.12-2.04
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs SC Paderborn 07 · Home-0.7 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 1.2-0.7.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.23-0.73
MW2 · 2026-09-06 · vs Hamburger SV · Away+0.2 pts
Won 5-0 away. xG: 2.8-0.2.
Score: 5-0 | xG: 2.77-0.19

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2026-09-19 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away+1.8 pts
Won 4-3 away from 2.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 2.82-3.24
MW2 · 2026-09-06 · vs Hamburger SV · Away+0.2 pts
Won 5-0 away. xG: 2.8-0.2.
Score: 5-0 | xG: 2.77-0.19
MW1 · 2026-08-29 · vs SC Paderborn 07 · Home+-0.7 pts
Drew 0-0 home. xG: 1.2-0.7.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.23-0.73

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (36 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1.4
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 8.9 xG - clinical finishing
+0.9
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 6.2 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
+0.5
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.1 xPTS gap)
-0.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.2
Total CLS-6

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
1W-2D-1L
-3Neutral
#10 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|34 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

FSV Mainz 05 are right where they belong. Their CLS of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 6th).

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