Fulham Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+38

Luck Index Score

Fulham have had fortune smiling on them. 4.08 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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Points

Expected: 39.92

Goals Scored

xG: 40.05

Goals Conceded

xGA: 43.42

4.1

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Manchester United · away

2-3

Lost away against Manchester United

One of those games where nothing went right. Fulham generated 1.94 xG, comfortably more than the 1.79 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Fulham. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

19'Casemiro scores for Manchester United (assist: B. Fernandes)

56'M. Cunha scores for Manchester United (assist: Casemiro)

85'R. Jimenez scores for Fulham

90'Kevin scores for Fulham (assist: R. Sessegnon)

90'B. Sesko scores for Manchester United (assist: B. Fernandes)

1.94

xG Created

1.79

Opp. xG

-1.5

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Manchester United · Away-1.5 pts

Lost 2-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.94-1.79

MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs Everton · Home-1.4 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.97-1.88

MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Manchester City · Away-1.4 pts

Lost 0-3 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.42-1.37

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-01-07 · vs Chelsea · Home+2.3 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.2-2.39

MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Tottenham · Away+2.1 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.45-0.86

MW23 · 2026-01-24 · vs Brighton · Home+2.0 pts

Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.05-1.59

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+13

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (74 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+11

xPTS Gap

4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 more goals than their 40.0 xG - clinical finishing

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 more goals than the 43.4 xGA opponents generated

-1

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

Total Luck Index+38

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Fulham are riding their luck at +38. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

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