Fulham

Fulham CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+29
CLS Score

Fulham have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

45
Points
Expected: 41.72
43
Goals Scored
xG: 41.88
46
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.59
3.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Manchester United · away
2-3
Lost away against Manchester United

One of those games where nothing went right. Fulham generated 1.94 xG, comfortably more than the 1.79 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Fulham. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
19'Casemiro scores for Manchester United (assist: B. Fernandes)
56'M. Cunha scores for Manchester United (assist: Casemiro)
85'R. Jimenez scores for Fulham
90'Kevin scores for Fulham (assist: R. Sessegnon)
90'B. Sesko scores for Manchester United (assist: B. Fernandes)
1.94
xG Created
1.79
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Manchester United · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.94-1.79
MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs Everton · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.97-1.88
MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Manchester City · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.42-1.37

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-01-07 · vs Chelsea · Home+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.2-2.39
MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Tottenham · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.45-0.86
MW23 · 2026-01-24 · vs Brighton · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.05-1.59

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+10.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (78 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+10.2
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 41.9 xG - clinical finishing
+2.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.6 more goals than the 46.6 xGA opponents generated
-0.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.1
Total CLS+29

Rank Per Signal

Where Fulham ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

10
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-0.7
10
Discipline
1
20
-0.1
12
Defensive Luck
1
20
-0.1
13
Finishing Luck
1
20
+2.8
14
xPTS Gap
1
20
+6.1
19
Injury Burden
1
20
+10.2
19
Schedule Strength
1
20
+10.8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Fulham are riding their luck at +29. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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