Fulham

Fulham CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Premier League standings →

+22
CLS Score
6th luckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Fulham have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: Schedule Strength (+10.3 CLS impact). Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

49
Points
Expected: 46.74
45
Goals Scored
xG: 46.23
51
Goals Conceded
xGA: 52.49
2.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 36 · 2026-05-09 · vs Bournemouth · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Bournemouth

One of those games where nothing went right. Fulham generated 1.33 xG, comfortably more than the 0.82 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Fulham. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
41'Ryan Christie (Bournemouth) - Red Card
45+7'Joachim Andersen (Fulham) - Red Card
53'Rayan scores for Bournemouth (assist: A. Smith)
1.33
xG Created
0.82
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW36 · 2026-05-09 · vs Bournemouth · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0. Read match report →
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.33-0.82
MW24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Manchester United · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.94-1.79
MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs Everton · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.97-1.88

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-01-07 · vs Chelsea · Home+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.2-2.39
MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Tottenham · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.45-0.86
MW23 · 2026-01-24 · vs Brighton · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.05-1.59

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+10.3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (93 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+9.2
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 52.5 xGA opponents generated
+1.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 46.2 xG - wasting chances
-1.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.3
Total CLS+22

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Fulham are riding their luck at +22. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
05-24
H
Newcastle
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
13
of 20
↓ 1 from current 12
Projected Points
50
from 49 now (+1 remaining)
Pace
1.26
expected pts per game · 1 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 1 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Fulham's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Wilson MID£5.918.4%105.8+4.2Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Raúl FWD£5.91.9%911.6-2.6Underperforming xG — buy the dip
King MID£4.41.6%12.4-1.4Underperforming xG — buy the dip
Iwobi MID£6.11.1%41.6+2.4Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Muniz FWD£5.30.7%13.1-2.1Underperforming xG — buy the dip

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).