Chelsea CURSD Luck Score
2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Premier League standings →
Chelsea are getting roughly what they deserve. 7 points vs 6.48 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
One of those games where nothing went right. Brentford created almost nothing - just 0 xG - but scored 3 goals. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for Chelsea. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsChelsea are right where they belong. Their CLS of -5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 14th in the league - a favorable stretch.
Projected Finish
Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 33 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.
Fantasy Outlook
Most-Owned Attackers
| Player | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro FWD | £7.7 | 64.5% | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Rogers MID | £7.8 | 41.0% | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Palmer MID | £9.7 | 25.1% | 2 | 1.3 | +0.7 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Neto MID | £6.5 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Welbeck FWD | £5.9 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Finishing in line with xG |
Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).