Chelsea

Chelsea CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-43
CLS Score

Chelsea: 48 points from 55 expected, a gap of 6.5. Finishing has cost them: 9 fewer goals than their 62.0 xG should produce. 11 losses, 9 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

48
Points
Expected: 54.5
53
Goals Scored
xG: 61.99
42
Goals Conceded
xGA: 44.04
6.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 33 · 2026-04-18 · vs Manchester United · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Manchester United

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Chelsea generated 1.57 xG, comfortably more than the 0.29 their opponent managed. Manchester United created almost nothing - just 0.29 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Chelsea. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
43'M. Cunha scores for Manchester United (assist: B. Fernandes)
1.57
xG Created
0.29
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW33 · 2026-04-18 · vs Manchester United · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.57-0.29
MW21 · 2026-01-07 · vs Fulham · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.39-1.2
MW18 · 2025-12-27 · vs Aston Villa · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.14-1.19

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Liverpool · Home+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1-1.95
MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Nottingham Forest · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-0 away from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.67-2.35
MW22 · 2026-01-17 · vs Brentford · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.59-1.52

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 9 fewer goals than their 62.0 xG - wasting chances
-13.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (215 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-10.1
xPTS Gap
7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-10
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 44.0 xGA opponents generated
+1.7
Total CLS-43

Rank Per Signal

Where Chelsea ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Finishing Luck
1
20
-13.2
2
Injury Burden
1
20
-10.1
3
xPTS Gap
1
20
-10
4
Discipline
1
20
-2.6
6
Schedule Strength
1
20
-6.9
7
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-1.9
13
Defensive Luck
1
20
+1.7

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Chelsea are deeply cursed at -43. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

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