Chelsea

Chelsea CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 2 matches played · View Premier League standings →

+6
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Chelsea are getting roughly what they deserve. 6 points vs 4.11 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

6
Points
Expected: 4.11
7
Goals Scored
xG: 5.17
5
Goals Conceded
xGA: 2.74
1.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Brighton · at home
4-3
Won at home against Brighton

One of those games where nothing went right. Chelsea created 2.93 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 4. Brighton generated just 1.41 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Chelsea. They got 3. That's 0.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
4'R. Lavia scores for Chelsea
14'P. Neto scores for Chelsea (assist: M. Rogers)
32'Joao Pedro scores for Chelsea (assist: J. Hato)
35'M. Yalcouye scores for Brighton
63'Joao Pedro scores for Brighton
74'C. Palmer scores for Chelsea (assist: Joao Pedro)
90'P. Gross scores for Brighton
2.93
xG Created
1.41
Opp. xG
0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Brighton · Home+0.8 pts
Won 4-3 home. xG: 2.9-1.4.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 2.93-1.41
MW1 · 2026-08-24 · vs Fulham · Away+1.1 pts
Won 3-2 away from 2.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.24-1.33

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-24 · vs Fulham · Away+1.1 pts
Won 3-2 away from 2.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.9 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.24-1.33
MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Brighton · Home+0.8 pts
Won 4-3 home. xG: 2.9-1.4.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 2.93-1.41

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 5.2 xG - clinical finishing
+3.8
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 more goals than the 2.7 xGA opponents generated
-2.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (24 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
0
Total CLS+6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|36 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Chelsea are right where they belong. Their CLS of +6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 7th).

Next Matches
09-06
A
Arsenal
Bet
09-12
H
Hull City
Bet
09-18
A
Brentford
Bet
10-10
H
Bournemouth
Bet
10-17
A
Everton
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
3
of 20
No change from current 3
Projected Points
94
from 6 now (+88 remaining)
Pace
2.06
expected pts per game · 36 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 36 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Chelsea's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
João Pedro FWD£7.769.2%21.9+0.1Finishing in line with xG
Rogers MID£7.524.1%11.1-0.1Finishing in line with xG
Palmer MID£9.618.4%20.9+1.1Finishing in line with xG
Caicedo MID£5.41.9%00.00.0Finishing in line with xG
Neto MID£6.51.3%10.4+0.6Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).