Chelsea CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Premier League standings →
Chelsea: 52 points from 58 expected, a gap of 6. Finishing has cost them: 8 fewer goals than their 65.4 xG should produce. 13 losses, 10 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows. Top driver: Finishing Luck (-11.2 CLS impact). Scored 8 fewer goals than their 65.4 xG - wasting chances
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Chelsea generated 1.57 xG, comfortably more than the 0.29 their opponent managed. Manchester United created almost nothing - just 0.29 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Chelsea. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsChelsea are deeply cursed at -45. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.
Projected Finish
Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 1 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.
Fantasy Outlook
Most-Owned Attackers
| Player | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro FWD | £7.4 | 37.2% | 15 | 14.3 | +0.7 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Palmer MID | £10.3 | 12.5% | 9 | 10.3 | -1.3 | Underperforming xG — buy the dip |
| Enzo MID | £6.4 | 11.2% | 10 | 11.3 | -1.3 | Underperforming xG — buy the dip |
| Caicedo MID | £5.7 | 7.1% | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6 | Overperforming xG — sell candidate |
| Marc Guiu FWD | £4.0 | 5.2% | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | Underperforming xG — buy the dip |
Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).