Season

Brentford CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 2 matches played · View Premier League standings →

-2

CLS Score

11th unluckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Brentford are getting roughly what they deserve. 4 points vs 4.21 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 4.21

Goals Scored

xG: 5.54

Goals Conceded

xGA: 2.03

0.2

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Leeds · away

1-1

Drew away against Leeds

One of those games where nothing went right. Brentford generated 1.67 xG, comfortably more than the 1.46 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Brentford. They got 1. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

41'K. Schade scores for Brentford (assist: K. Lewis-Potter)

79'D. Calvert-Lewin scores for Leeds (assist: L. Nmecha)

1.67

xG Created

1.46

Opp. xG

-0.5

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Leeds · Away-0.5 pts

Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.7-1.5.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.67-1.46

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Tottenham · Home+0.3 pts

Won 3-0 home. xG: 3.9-0.6.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 3.87-0.57

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Tottenham · Home+0.3 pts

Won 3-0 home. xG: 3.9-0.6.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 3.87-0.57

MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Leeds · Away+-0.5 pts

Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.7-1.5.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.67-1.46

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 fewer goals than their 5.5 xG - wasting chances

-3.2

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (14 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+1.7

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 2.0 xGA opponents generated

+1.1

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-1.1

xPTS Gap

Almost exactly on expected points (0.2 xPTS gap)

-0.5

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

Total CLS-2

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|36 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Brentford are right where they belong. Their CLS of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch.

Next Matches

09-05

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Bournemouth

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09-18

Chelsea

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10-10

Aston Villa

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10-17

Liverpool

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Projected Finish

Projected Position

of 20

↑ 1 from current 5

Projected Points

from 4 now (+74 remaining)

Pace

2.10

expected pts per game · 36 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 36 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache

Brentford's finishing has tracked their xG closely — fantasy returns are sustainable.

Player	Price	Owned	Goals	xG	Δ	Verdict
M.Sangaré MID	£5.7	14.8%	0	0.3	-0.3	Finishing in line with xG
Thiago FWD	£8.0	14.1%	0	1.8	-1.8	Underperforming xG — buy the dip
Schade MID	£6.0	4.4%	1	0.8	+0.2	Finishing in line with xG
Lewis-Potter MID	£5.5	2.1%	1	0.8	+0.2	Finishing in line with xG
Furo FWD	£4.5	1.1%	0	0.0	0.0	Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).