Brentford

Brentford CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Premier League standings →

+8
CLS Score
9th luckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Brentford are getting roughly what they deserve. 52 points vs 54.76 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

52
Points
Expected: 54.76
54
Goals Scored
xG: 58.31
51
Goals Conceded
xGA: 51.06
2.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nottingham Forest · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Nottingham Forest

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Brentford generated 1.81 xG, comfortably more than the 0.78 their opponent managed. Nottingham Forest generated just 0.78 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Brentford. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
12'Igor Jesus scores for Nottingham Forest
79'T. Awoniyi scores for Nottingham Forest (assist: M. Gibbs-White)
1.81
xG Created
0.78
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nottingham Forest · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.81-0.78
MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Brighton · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.91-1.22
MW27 · 2026-02-21 · vs Brighton · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.6-1.09

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Aston Villa · Away+2.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected. Read match report →
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.38-2.4
MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs Newcastle · Away+1.9 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.79-2.24
MW6 · 2025-09-27 · vs Manchester United · Home+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.02-2.08

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+11.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 58.3 xG - wasting chances
-5.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.8
xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (155 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.8
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 51.1 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-0.4
Total CLS+8

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Fulham
Fulham
14W-7D-16L
+22Lucky
#12 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Brentford are right where they belong. Their CLS of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches
05-24
A
Liverpool
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
9
of 20
No change from current 9
Projected Points
53
from 52 now (+1 remaining)
Pace
1.48
expected pts per game · 1 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 1 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache
Brentford has scored 4 goals below their xG total — finishing has been cold. Their attackers are due for a bounce.
PlayerPriceOwnedGoalsxGΔVerdict
Thiago FWD£7.331.6%2220.6+1.4Finishing in line with xG
O.Dango MID£5.61.6%77.4-0.4Finishing in line with xG
Schade MID£6.81.4%711.2-4.2Underperforming xG — buy the dip
Damsgaard MID£5.60.8%42.6+1.4Finishing in line with xG
Henderson MID£5.00.3%10.3+0.7Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).