Brentford CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 season · 38 matches played · View Premier League standings →
Brentford are getting roughly what they deserve. 53 points vs 55.31 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Brentford generated 1.81 xG, comfortably more than the 0.78 their opponent managed. Nottingham Forest generated just 0.78 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Brentford. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Future Outlook
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsBrentford are right where they belong. Their CLS of +10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
No upcoming fixtures available
Projected Finish
Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 0 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.
Fantasy Outlook
Most-Owned Attackers
| Player | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago FWD | £7.2 | 30.2% | 22 | 20.6 | +1.4 | Finishing in line with xG |
| O.Dango MID | £5.6 | 1.6% | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Schade MID | £6.8 | 1.3% | 8 | 12.1 | -4.1 | Underperforming xG — buy the dip |
| Damsgaard MID | £5.6 | 0.8% | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Henderson MID | £5.0 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | Finishing in line with xG |
Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).