Brentford

Brentford Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+18
Luck Index Score

Brentford are getting roughly what they deserve. 46 points vs 45.81 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

46
Points
Expected: 45.81
46
Goals Scored
xG: 49.03
42
Goals Conceded
xGA: 42.08
0.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nottingham Forest · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Nottingham Forest

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Brentford generated 1.81 xG, comfortably more than the 0.78 their opponent managed. Nottingham Forest generated just 0.78 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Brentford. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
12'Igor Jesus scores for Nottingham Forest
79'T. Awoniyi scores for Nottingham Forest (assist: M. Gibbs-White)
1.81
xG Created
0.78
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nottingham Forest · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.81-0.78
MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Brighton · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.91-1.22
MW27 · 2026-02-21 · vs Brighton · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.6-1.09

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Aston Villa · Away+2.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.38-2.4
MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs Newcastle · Away+1.9 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.79-2.24
MW6 · 2025-09-27 · vs Manchester United · Home+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.02-2.08

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+15
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 49.0 xG - wasting chances
-5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+5
xPTS Gap
0 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0 more goals than the 42.1 xGA opponents generated
-1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (130 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total Luck Index+16

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Fulham
Fulham
13W-5D-13L
+38Lucky
#9 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Brentford are riding their luck at +18. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

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