Brentford

Brentford CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+9
CLS Score

Brentford are getting roughly what they deserve. 48 points vs 49.54 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

48
Points
Expected: 49.54
48
Goals Scored
xG: 52.79
44
Goals Conceded
xGA: 44.33
1.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nottingham Forest · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Nottingham Forest

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Brentford generated 1.81 xG, comfortably more than the 0.78 their opponent managed. Nottingham Forest generated just 0.78 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Brentford. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
12'Igor Jesus scores for Nottingham Forest
79'T. Awoniyi scores for Nottingham Forest (assist: M. Gibbs-White)
1.81
xG Created
0.78
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nottingham Forest · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.81-0.78
MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Brighton · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.91-1.22
MW27 · 2026-02-21 · vs Brighton · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.6-1.09

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Aston Villa · Away+2.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.38-2.4
MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs Newcastle · Away+1.9 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.79-2.24
MW6 · 2025-09-27 · vs Manchester United · Home+1.6 pts
Won 3-1 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.02-2.08

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+11.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 52.8 xG - wasting chances
-6.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-1.8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (137 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.5
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 44.3 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-0.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.4
Total CLS+9

Rank Per Signal

Where Brentford ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
Finishing Luck
1
20
-6.4
10
Defensive Luck
1
20
-0.4
11
xPTS Gap
1
20
-1.8
11
Discipline
1
20
+0.4
11
Injury Burden
1
20
+1.5
15
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+4
20
Schedule Strength
1
20
+11.7

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Fulham
Fulham
13W-6D-14L
+29Lucky
#12 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Brentford are right where they belong. Their CLS of +9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 8th).

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