Girona

Girona CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 38 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-42
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Girona: 41 points from 48 expected, a gap of 7.3. Finishing has cost them: 9 fewer goals than their 48.1 xG should produce. 15 losses, 14 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows. Top driver: Injury Burden (-19.2 CLS impact). High injury burden (261 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

41
Points
Expected: 48.28
39
Goals Scored
xG: 48.15
55
Goals Conceded
xGA: 56.27
7.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Celta Vigo · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Celta Vigo

One of those games where nothing went right. Girona generated 1.37 xG, comfortably more than the 0.6 their opponent managed. Celta Vigo generated just 0.6 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Girona. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
35'V. Vanat scores for Girona (assist: A. Witsel)
58'F. Jutgla scores for Celta Vigo (assist: O. Mingueza)
70'Vitor Reis scores for Celta Vigo
1.37
xG Created
0.6
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Celta Vigo · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.37-0.6
MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Sevilla · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.12-1.26
MW34 · 2026-05-01 · vs Mallorca · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.72-1.09

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-08 · vs Alaves · Home+2.3 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.85-1.84
MW19 · 2026-01-10 · vs Osasuna · Home+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.65-1.41
MW30 · 2026-04-06 · vs Villarreal · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.48-0.55

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (261 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-19.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 9 fewer goals than their 48.1 xG - wasting chances
-14.3
xPTS Gap
7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-12.4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+6.7
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 56.3 xGA opponents generated
+1.4
Total CLS-42

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Girona are deeply cursed at -42. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available