Girona

Girona Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

-22
Luck Index Score

Girona are getting roughly what they deserve. 34 points vs 34.93 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

34
Points
Expected: 34.93
31
Goals Scored
xG: 36.67
44
Goals Conceded
xGA: 46.21
0.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Celta Vigo · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Celta Vigo

One of those games where nothing went right. Girona generated 1.37 xG, comfortably more than the 0.6 their opponent managed. Celta Vigo generated just 0.6 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Girona. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
35'V. Vanat scores for Girona (assist: A. Witsel)
58'F. Jutgla scores for Celta Vigo (assist: O. Mingueza)
70'Vitor Reis scores for Celta Vigo
1.37
xG Created
0.6
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Celta Vigo · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.37-0.6
MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Sevilla · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.12-1.26
MW11 · 2025-10-31 · vs Getafe · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.43-0.88

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-08 · vs Alaves · Home+2.3 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.85-1.84
MW19 · 2026-01-10 · vs Osasuna · Home+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.65-1.41
MW28 · 2026-03-14 · vs Athletic Club · Home+1.8 pts
Won 3-0 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.61-1.84

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (209 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-19
Finishing Luck
Scored 6 fewer goals than their 36.7 xG - wasting chances
-10
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 46.2 xGA opponents generated
+3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2
Total Luck Index-21

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Barcelona
Barcelona
24W-1D-4L
+50Blessed
#1 in league
Espanyol
Espanyol
10W-7D-12L
+7Neutral
#10 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -22, Girona are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
04-06
H
Villarreal
Bet
04-10
A
Real Madrid
Bet
04-22
H
Real Betis
Bet
04-25
A
Valencia
Bet
05-03
H
Mallorca
Bet
728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT