Girona

Girona CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

-13
CLS Score

Girona are getting roughly what they deserve. 38 points vs 36.49 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

38
Points
Expected: 36.49
33
Goals Scored
xG: 37.67
45
Goals Conceded
xGA: 49.06
1.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Celta Vigo · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Celta Vigo

One of those games where nothing went right. Girona generated 1.37 xG, comfortably more than the 0.6 their opponent managed. Celta Vigo generated just 0.6 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Girona. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
35'V. Vanat scores for Girona (assist: A. Witsel)
58'F. Jutgla scores for Celta Vigo (assist: O. Mingueza)
70'Vitor Reis scores for Celta Vigo
1.37
xG Created
0.6
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Celta Vigo · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.37-0.6
MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Sevilla · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.12-1.26
MW11 · 2025-10-31 · vs Getafe · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.43-0.88

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-08 · vs Alaves · Home+2.3 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.85-1.84
MW19 · 2026-01-10 · vs Osasuna · Home+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.65-1.41
MW30 · 2026-04-06 · vs Villarreal · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.48-0.55

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (224 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-17.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 37.7 xG - wasting chances
-6.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 49.1 xGA opponents generated
+4.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3.8
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.4
Total CLS-13

Rank Per Signal

Where Girona ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Injury Burden
1
20
-17.1
4
Discipline
1
20
-2.5
6
Finishing Luck
1
20
-6.2
13
xPTS Gap
1
20
+2.5
14
Schedule Strength
1
20
+3.8
15
Defensive Luck
1
20
+4.1
16
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+2.4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Girona are right where they belong. Their CLS of -13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 11th).

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