Girona

Girona CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-39
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Girona can't catch a break. 40 points when the data says they deserve closer to 46.6? 15 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (-19.2 CLS impact). High injury burden (265 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

40
Points
Expected: 46.6
38
Goals Scored
xG: 47.57
54
Goals Conceded
xGA: 56.09
6.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Celta Vigo · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Celta Vigo

One of those games where nothing went right. Girona generated 1.37 xG, comfortably more than the 0.6 their opponent managed. Celta Vigo generated just 0.6 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Girona. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
35'V. Vanat scores for Girona (assist: A. Witsel)
58'F. Jutgla scores for Celta Vigo (assist: O. Mingueza)
70'Vitor Reis scores for Celta Vigo
1.37
xG Created
0.6
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Celta Vigo · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.37-0.6
MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Sevilla · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.12-1.26
MW34 · 2026-05-01 · vs Mallorca · Home-1.8 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.72-1.09

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-08 · vs Alaves · Home+2.3 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.85-1.84
MW19 · 2026-01-10 · vs Osasuna · Home+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.65-1.41
MW30 · 2026-04-06 · vs Villarreal · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.48-0.55

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (265 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-19.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 10 fewer goals than their 47.6 xG - wasting chances
-14.5
xPTS Gap
7 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-11.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+7.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 56.1 xGA opponents generated
+2.1
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1.8
Total CLS-39

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -39, Girona are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 7 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
05-23
H
Elche
Bet