Ipswich

Ipswich CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 7 matches played · View Premier League standings →

+5
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Ipswich are getting roughly what they deserve. 9 points vs 7.15 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

9
Points
Expected: 7.15
11
Goals Scored
xG: 6.75
15
Goals Conceded
xGA: 10.7
1.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-09-04 · vs Liverpool · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Liverpool

One of those games where nothing went right. Liverpool created almost nothing - just 0 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for Ipswich. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'A. Isak scores for Liverpool (assist: C. Gakpo)
9'A. Isak scores for Liverpool (assist: C. Gakpo)
0
xG Created
0
Opp. xG
-1.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-04 · vs Liverpool · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0-0
MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Everton · Away-1.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0. Read match report →
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0-0
MW7 · 2026-10-17 · vs Manchester City · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 2-3 away. xG: 1.7-3.6.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.72-3.61

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2026-10-10 · vs Fulham · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected. Read match report →
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.22-1.87
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Crystal Palace · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0-0
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Sunderland · Home+0.8 pts
Won 2-1 home. xG: 1.8-0.7.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.8-0.66

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
Low injury burden (21 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1.9
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+1.6
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 6.8 xG - clinical finishing
+0.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 10.7 xGA opponents generated
-0.5
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.5
Total CLS+5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Ipswich are right where they belong. Their CLS of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 14th in the league - a favorable stretch.

Next Matches
10-23
H
Nottingham Forest
Bet
10-31
A
Hull City
Bet
11-08
H
Bournemouth
Bet
11-21
A
Tottenham
Bet
11-28
H
Aston Villa
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
9
of 20
No change from current 9
Projected Points
44
from 9 now (+35 remaining)
Pace
1.02
expected pts per game · 31 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 31 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook