Ipswich

Ipswich CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 2 matches played · View Premier League standings →

-24
CLS Score
6th unluckiest of 23 in the Premier League

Ipswich can't catch a break. 3 points when the data says they deserve closer to 2.59? 1 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Schedule Strength (-29.2 CLS impact). Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

3
Points
Expected: 2.59
4
Goals Scored
xG: 3.81
6
Goals Conceded
xGA: 5.22
0.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Manchester United · away
2-5
Lost away against Manchester United

One of those games where nothing went right. Ipswich created 2.01 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 0.4 points for Ipswich. They got 0. That's 0.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
29'L. Davis scores for Ipswich (assist: I. Fatawu)
40'B. Fernandes scores for Manchester United (assist: M. Cunha)
56'J. Greaves scores for Manchester United
61'B. Fernandes scores for Manchester United
68'B. Fernandes scores for Manchester United
82'B. Mbeumo scores for Manchester United (assist: B. Fernandes)
90'C. Akpom scores for Ipswich (assist: J. Enciso)
2.01
xG Created
4.56
Opp. xG
-0.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Manchester United · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 2-5 away. xG: 2.0-4.6.
Score: 2-5 | xG: 2.01-4.56
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Sunderland · Home+0.8 pts
Won 2-1 home. xG: 1.8-0.7.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.8-0.66

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Sunderland · Home+0.8 pts
Won 2-1 home. xG: 1.8-0.7.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.8-0.66
MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Manchester United · Away+-0.4 pts
Lost 2-5 away. xG: 2.0-4.6.
Score: 2-5 | xG: 2.01-4.56

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-29.2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+6.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (18 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.8 more goals than the 5.2 xGA opponents generated
-1.9
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.4 xPTS gap)
+1.5
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 3.8 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+1.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.1
Total CLS-24

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|36 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -24, Ipswich are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 0 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
09-04
H
Liverpool
Bet
09-12
A
Crystal Palace
Bet
09-19
A
Everton
Bet
10-10
H
Fulham
Bet
10-17
A
Manchester City
Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position
14
of 20
↑ 8 from current 22
Projected Points
53
from 3 now (+50 remaining)
Pace
1.29
expected pts per game · 36 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 36 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook