Lecce CURSD Luck Score
2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →
+7
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A
Lecce are getting roughly what they deserve. 6 points vs 3.31 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
6
Points
Expected: 3.31
5
Goals Scored
xG: 5.29
10
Goals Conceded
xGA: 11.91
2.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-09-07 · vs Cagliari · away
0-1
Lost away against Cagliari
One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 0.6 points for Lecce. They got 0. That's 0.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
29'D. Maldini scores for Cagliari (assist: J. Fazzini)
0.5
xG Created
1.61
Opp. xG
-0.6
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW3 · 2026-09-07 · vs Cagliari · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 0-1 away. xG: 0.5-1.6.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.5-1.61
MW2 · 2026-08-31 · vs AS Roma · Home-0.3 pts
Lost 0-4 home. xG: 0.8-3.3.
Score: 0-4 | xG: 0.8-3.27
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs AC Milan · Away-0.2 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.2-2.2.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.21-2.19
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Monza · Home+2.5 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.08-2.79
MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Venezia · Away+1.3 pts
Won 2-0 away from 2.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 2.7-2.05
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs AC Milan · Away+-0.2 pts
Lost 0-3 away. xG: 0.2-2.2.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 0.21-2.19
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
xPTS Gap
3 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.5
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (17 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 11.9 xGA opponents generated
+1.2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.7
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 5.3 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
-0.2
Total CLS+7
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|33 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Lecce are right where they belong. Their CLS of +7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 13th in the league - a favorable stretch.