Lecce

Lecce CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

-31
CLS Score

Lecce can't catch a break. 28 points when the data says they deserve closer to 31.86? 19 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

28
Points
Expected: 31.86
22
Goals Scored
xG: 26.49
46
Goals Conceded
xGA: 50.23
3.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 9 · 2025-10-28 · vs Napoli · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Napoli

One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Lecce. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
69'F. Anguissa scores for Napoli (assist: David Neres)
1.16
xG Created
0.83
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW9 · 2025-10-28 · vs Napoli · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.16-0.83
MW30 · 2026-03-22 · vs AS Roma · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.03-0.83
MW29 · 2026-03-14 · vs Napoli · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.29-1.28

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-11-30 · vs Torino · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1-1.74
MW10 · 2025-11-02 · vs Fiorentina · Away+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.15-1.46
MW6 · 2025-10-04 · vs Parma · Away+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.5-0.59

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-9.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (151 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.7
xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 fewer goals than their 26.5 xG - wasting chances
-5.4
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 50.2 xGA opponents generated
+3.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-0.5
Total CLS-31

Rank Per Signal

Where Lecce ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-5.9
3
Schedule Strength
1
20
-9.8
6
xPTS Gap
1
20
-5.9
7
Finishing Luck
1
20
-5.4
7
Injury Burden
1
20
-6.7
9
Discipline
1
20
-0.5
14
Defensive Luck
1
20
+3.2

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Napoli
Napoli
20W-6D-7L
+23Lucky
#3 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -31, Lecce are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 13th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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