Lecce CURSD Luck Score
2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Serie A standings →
-8
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 20 in the Serie A
Lecce are getting roughly what they deserve. 35 points vs 35.29 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
35
Points
Expected: 35.29
27
Goals Scored
xG: 29.77
50
Goals Conceded
xGA: 57.09
0.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 9 · 2025-10-28 · vs Napoli · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Napoli
One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Lecce. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
69'F. Anguissa scores for Napoli (assist: David Neres)
1.16
xG Created
0.83
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW9 · 2025-10-28 · vs Napoli · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.16-0.83
MW30 · 2026-03-22 · vs AS Roma · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.03-0.83
MW29 · 2026-03-14 · vs Napoli · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.29-1.28
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW35 · 2026-05-01 · vs Pisa · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.88-2.23
MW37 · 2026-05-17 · vs Sassuolo · Away+2.3 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.86-2.02
MW13 · 2025-11-30 · vs Torino · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1-1.74
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 57.1 xGA opponents generated
+6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-4.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (158 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 29.8 xG - wasting chances
-1.7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.1
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.3 xPTS gap)
-0.3
Total CLS-8
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|1 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Lecce are right where they belong. Their CLS of -8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
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