Napoli Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+33

Luck Index Score

Napoli have had fortune smiling on them. The Luck Index says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT

Points

Expected: 49.24

Goals Scored

xG: 42.08

Goals Conceded

xGA: 31.32

15.8

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 5 · 2025-09-28 · vs AC Milan · away

1-2

Lost away against AC Milan

A defeat that defied the run of play. Napoli created 2.96 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. AC Milan generated just 0.75 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Napoli. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

3'A. Saelemaekers scores for AC Milan (assist: C. Pulisic)

31'C. Pulisic scores for AC Milan (assist: Y. Fofana)

57'Pervis Estupiñán (AC Milan) - Red Card

60'K. De Bruyne scores for Napoli

2.96

xG Created

0.75

Opp. xG

-2.5

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-28 · vs AC Milan · Away-2.5 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.96-0.75

MW26 · 2026-02-22 · vs Atalanta · Away-1.5 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.08-0.9

MW7 · 2025-10-18 · vs Torino · Away-1.4 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 2.1 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.06-2

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-22 · vs Pisa · Home+2.4 pts

Won 3-2 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.08-2.61

MW8 · 2025-10-25 · vs Inter · Home+2.0 pts

Won 3-1 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.25-1.89

MW21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Sassuolo · Home+2.0 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.58-0.91

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

16 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+27.1

Finishing Luck

Scored 5 more goals than their 42.1 xG - clinical finishing

+12.4

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-11.3

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+11.1

Injury Burden

High injury burden (152 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-9.8

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+3.2

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 31.3 xGA opponents generated

+0.3

Total Luck Index+33

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Dip in Form Probable

Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Napoli are riding their luck at +33. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT