Season

Napoli CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 6 matches played · View Serie A standings →

CLS Score

8th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Napoli are getting roughly what they deserve. 10 points vs 9.5 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 9.5

Goals Scored

xG: 9.53

Goals Conceded

xGA: 7.35

0.5

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Como · at home

1-2

Lost at home against Como

One of those games where nothing went right. Napoli generated 1.39 xG, comfortably more than the 1.05 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Napoli. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

17'M. Baturina scores for Como (assist: A. Diao)

30'R. Hojlund scores for Napoli (assist: A. Rrahmani)

34'A. Douvikas scores for Como (assist: M. Baturina)

1.39

xG Created

1.05

Opp. xG

-1.6

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Como · Home-1.6 pts

Lost 1-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.39-1.05

MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Inter · Away-0.8 pts

Lost 2-3 away. xG: 2.4-3.9.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.43-3.86

MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Fiorentina · Away-0.6 pts

Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.4-1.1.

Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.4-1.14

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Genoa · Away+2.0 pts

Won 2-0 away from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 0-0

MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Bologna · Home+0.9 pts

Won 1-0 home. xG: 1.2-0.3.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.19-0.29

MW6 · 2026-10-10 · vs Frosinone · Home+0.6 pts

Won 3-0 home. xG: 3.1-1.0.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 3.12-1.01

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+3.4

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

+1.2

Injury Burden

High injury burden (51 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-1

Finishing Luck

Scoring almost exactly at their 9.5 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful

+0.9

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 7.3 xGA opponents generated

+0.9

xPTS Gap

0.5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+0.4

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+0.2

Total CLS+6

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|32 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Napoli are right where they belong. Their CLS of +6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).

Next Matches

10-17

Venezia

Bet

10-24

AS Roma

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10-28

Monza

Bet

11-01