Napoli

Napoli CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Serie A standings →

+2
CLS Score
11th luckiest of 20 in the Serie A

Napoli are getting roughly what they deserve. 7 points vs 7.45 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

7
Points
Expected: 7.45
7
Goals Scored
xG: 7.18
6
Goals Conceded
xGA: 7.01
0.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Como · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Como

One of those games where nothing went right. Napoli generated 1.39 xG, comfortably more than the 1.05 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Napoli. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
17'M. Baturina scores for Como (assist: A. Diao)
30'R. Hojlund scores for Napoli (assist: A. Rrahmani)
34'A. Douvikas scores for Como (assist: M. Baturina)
1.39
xG Created
1.05
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Como · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.39-1.05
MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Inter · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 away. xG: 2.4-3.9.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.43-3.86
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Fiorentina · Away-0.6 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.4-1.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.4-1.14

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Genoa · Away+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.77-0.67
MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Bologna · Home+0.9 pts
Won 1-0 home. xG: 1.2-0.3.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.19-0.29
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Fiorentina · Away+-0.6 pts
Drew 1-1 away. xG: 1.4-1.1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.4-1.14

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (39 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.8
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.5 xPTS gap)
-0.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 7.0 xGA opponents generated
+0.5
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.5
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+0.3
Finishing Luck
Scoring almost exactly at their 7.2 xG - neither clinical nor wasteful
+0.1
Total CLS+2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Napoli are right where they belong. Their CLS of +2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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