Napoli

Napoli CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Serie A standings →

+23
CLS Score

Napoli have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

66
Points
Expected: 51.75
48
Goals Scored
xG: 43.86
33
Goals Conceded
xGA: 33.91
14.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2025-09-28 · vs AC Milan · away
1-2
Lost away against AC Milan

A defeat that defied the run of play. Napoli created 2.96 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. AC Milan generated just 0.75 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Napoli. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
3'A. Saelemaekers scores for AC Milan (assist: C. Pulisic)
31'C. Pulisic scores for AC Milan (assist: Y. Fofana)
57'Pervis Estupiñán (AC Milan) - Red Card
60'K. De Bruyne scores for Napoli
2.96
xG Created
0.75
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-28 · vs AC Milan · Away-2.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.96-0.75
MW26 · 2026-02-22 · vs Atalanta · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.08-0.9
MW7 · 2025-10-18 · vs Torino · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 2.1 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.06-2

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-22 · vs Pisa · Home+2.4 pts
Won 3-2 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.08-2.61
MW8 · 2025-10-25 · vs Inter · Home+2.0 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.25-1.89
MW21 · 2026-01-17 · vs Sassuolo · Home+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.58-0.91

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
14 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+21.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (164 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-9.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 43.9 xG - clinical finishing
+8.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-8.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+8.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.9 more goals than the 33.9 xGA opponents generated
-0.3
Total CLS+23

Rank Per Signal

Where Napoli ranks among Serie A teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Injury Burden
1
20
-9.9
4
Schedule Strength
1
20
-8.7
9
Defensive Luck
1
20
-0.3
18
Finishing Luck
1
20
+8.7
18
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+8.1
18
Discipline
1
20
+3.3
20
xPTS Gap
1
20
+21.8

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Napoli are riding their luck at +23. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

Next Matches
04-24
H
Cremonese
Bet
05-02
A
Como
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05-10
H
Bologna
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05-17
A
Pisa
Bet
05-24
H
Udinese
Bet