Lens

Lens CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+40
CLS Score

Lens have been living on borrowed time. 62 points from 50.87 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

62
Points
Expected: 50.87
57
Goals Scored
xG: 58.12
29
Goals Conceded
xGA: 38
11.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2026-02-21 · vs Monaco · at home
2-3
Lost at home against Monaco

One of those games where nothing went right. Lens generated 1.79 xG, comfortably more than the 1.7 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Lens. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
3'O. Edouard scores for Lens (assist: A. Thomasson)
56'F. Thauvin scores for Lens
62'F. Balogun scores for Monaco (assist: M. Coulibaly)
70'D. Zakaria scores for Monaco (assist: Caio Henrique)
72'A. Fati scores for Monaco
1.79
xG Created
1.7
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-02-21 · vs Monaco · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.79-1.7
MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.16-1.07
MW1 · 2025-08-16 · vs Lyon · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.38-1.41

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Auxerre · Away+2.5 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.41-1.71
MW2 · 2025-08-24 · vs Le Havre · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.07-1.89
MW21 · 2026-02-07 · vs Rennes · Home+1.9 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.16-1.5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
11 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+18.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 9 fewer goals than the 38.0 xGA opponents generated
+8.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+7.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (115 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 58.1 xG - clinical finishing
+0.3
Total CLS+40

Rank Per Signal

Where Lens ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

9
Finishing Luck
1
18
+0.3
10
Schedule Strength
1
18
+0.5
12
Injury Burden
1
18
+3.1
15
Discipline
1
18
+2.5
17
Defensive Luck
1
18
+8.3
18
xPTS Gap
1
18
+18.2
18
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+7.1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Lens are riding their luck at +40. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches
04-24
A
Stade Brestois 29
Bet
05-02
A
Nice
Bet
05-08
H
Nantes
Bet
05-13
H
Paris Saint Germain
Bet
05-17
A
Lyon
Bet