Season

Lens CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-21

CLS Score

1st unluckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Lens can't catch a break. 4 points when the data says they deserve closer to 7.22? 3 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (-6.8 CLS impact). High injury burden (54 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 7.22

Goals Scored

xG: 11.37

Goals Conceded

xGA: 9.61

3.2

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Strasbourg · away

1-2

Lost away against Strasbourg

A defeat that defied the run of play. Lens created 2.91 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Lens. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

38'F. Thauvin scores for Lens

48'G. Yassine scores for Strasbourg (assist: S. Nanasi)

85'G. Yassine scores for Strasbourg (assist: S. Nanasi)

2.91

xG Created

1.83

Opp. xG

-1.9

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Strasbourg · Away-1.9 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 2.9 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.91-1.83

MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Lorient · Home-1.1 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.24-1.6

MW5 · 2026-09-18 · vs Monaco · Away-1.0 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.19-1.75

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Auxerre · Home+0.7 pts

Won 5-2 home. xG: 4.4-1.8.

Score: 5-2 | xG: 4.41-1.84

MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Le Mans · Away+0.1 pts

Drew 2-2 away. xG: 1.6-2.6.

Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.62-2.59

MW5 · 2026-09-18 · vs Monaco · Away+-1.0 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.19-1.75

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden

High injury burden (54 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-6.8

xPTS Gap

3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-5.8

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 fewer goals than their 11.4 xG - wasting chances

-3.3

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-2.5

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-1.3

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-1.2

Defensive Luck

Conceded 0.6 more goals than the 9.6 xGA opponents generated

-0.1

Total CLS-21

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: declining|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -21, Lens are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

10-09

Lyon

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10-17

Estac Troyes

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10-24

Paris FC

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10-30