Lens

Lens CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+36
CLS Score
2nd luckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Lens have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+20.1 CLS impact). 10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

70
Points
Expected: 59.75
66
Goals Scored
xG: 67.64
35
Goals Conceded
xGA: 43.7
10.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 33 · 2026-05-13 · vs Paris Saint Germain · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Paris Saint Germain

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Lens created 2.87 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Paris Saint Germain generated just 1.22 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Lens. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
29'K. Kvaratskhelia scores for Paris Saint Germain (assist: O. Dembele)
90'I. Mbaye scores for Paris Saint Germain (assist: D. Doue)
2.87
xG Created
1.22
Opp. xG
-2.3
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW33 · 2026-05-13 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home-2.3 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 2.9 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 2.87-1.22
MW30 · 2026-04-24 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away-1.7 pts
Drew 3-3 away despite 2.8 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.
Score: 3-3 | xG: 2.76-0.25
MW23 · 2026-02-21 · vs Monaco · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.79-1.7

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Auxerre · Away+2.5 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.41-1.71
MW2 · 2025-08-24 · vs Le Havre · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.07-1.89
MW32 · 2026-05-08 · vs Nantes · Home+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.82-1.25

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+20.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 9 fewer goals than the 43.7 xGA opponents generated
+10.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 67.6 xG - wasting chances
-2.7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+1.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (136 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1
Total CLS+36

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Lens are riding their luck at +36. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available