Lens

Lens Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+51
Luck Index Score

Lens have been living on borrowed time. 59 points from 47.98 expected? They're 11.02 points richer than they should be. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

59
Points
Expected: 47.98
54
Goals Scored
xG: 53.77
24
Goals Conceded
xGA: 33.91
11
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 23 · 2026-02-21 · vs Monaco · at home
2-3
Lost at home against Monaco

One of those games where nothing went right. Lens generated 1.79 xG, comfortably more than the 1.7 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Lens. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
3'O. Edouard scores for Lens (assist: A. Thomasson)
56'F. Thauvin scores for Lens
62'F. Balogun scores for Monaco (assist: M. Coulibaly)
70'D. Zakaria scores for Monaco (assist: Caio Henrique)
72'A. Fati scores for Monaco
1.79
xG Created
1.7
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-02-21 · vs Monaco · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.79-1.7
MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.16-1.07
MW1 · 2025-08-16 · vs Lyon · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.38-1.41

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Auxerre · Away+2.5 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.41-1.71
MW2 · 2025-08-24 · vs Le Havre · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.07-1.89
MW21 · 2026-02-07 · vs Rennes · Home+1.9 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.16-1.5

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
11 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+22
Defensive Luck
Conceded 10 fewer goals than the 33.9 xGA opponents generated
+12
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+9
Finishing Luck
Scored 0 more goals than their 53.8 xG - clinical finishing
+3
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (128 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1
Total Luck Index+52

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Lille
Lille
14W-5D-8L
-18Unlucky
#4 in league
Lyon
Lyon
14W-5D-8L
+33Lucky
#5 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: declining|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +51, Lens are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches
04-04
A
Lille
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04-17
H
Toulouse
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04-24
A
Stade Brestois 29
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05-03
A
Nice
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05-09
H
Nantes
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