Lille

Lille CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+23
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Lille have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+7.1 CLS impact). 4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

10
Points
Expected: 6.3
8
Goals Scored
xG: 6.95
4
Goals Conceded
xGA: 8.77
3.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Nice · away
1-2
Lost away against Nice

One of those games where nothing went right. Lille generated 1.58 xG, comfortably more than the 1.5 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Lille. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
22'Nathan Ngoy scores for Nice
67'Mohamed Amoura scores for Nice (assist: Gauthier Hein)
79'Ayase Ueda scores for Lille (assist: Maurits Kjaergaard)
1.58
xG Created
1.5
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Nice · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.58-1.5
MW2 · 2026-08-28 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home-0.3 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 1.3-1.4.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.27-1.44
MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Estac Troyes · Home+0.7 pts
Won 2-0 home. xG: 1.6-0.4.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.65-0.38

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-03 · vs Toulouse · Away+2.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.4 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.21-3.46
MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Angers · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.24-1.99
MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Estac Troyes · Home+0.7 pts
Won 2-0 home. xG: 1.6-0.4.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.65-0.38

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+7.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 8.8 xGA opponents generated
+5
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 7.0 xG - clinical finishing
+3.3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (18 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.3
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.3
Total CLS+23

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: improving|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Lille are riding their luck at +23. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

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