Lille

Lille CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-8
CLS Score

Lille are getting roughly what they deserve. 54 points vs 49.55 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

54
Points
Expected: 49.55
49
Goals Scored
xG: 50.09
34
Goals Conceded
xGA: 34.74
4.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 6 · 2025-09-28 · vs Lyon · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Lyon

One of those games where nothing went right. Lille generated 1.47 xG, comfortably more than the 0.52 their opponent managed. Lyon generated just 0.52 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Lille. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
13'T. Morton scores for Lyon (assist: N. Tagliafico)
1.47
xG Created
0.52
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2025-09-28 · vs Lyon · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.47-0.52
MW20 · 2026-02-01 · vs Lyon · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.5 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.53-0.54
MW18 · 2026-01-16 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.14-1.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Auxerre · Away+2.8 pts
Won 4-3 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 0.52-2.97
MW15 · 2025-12-05 · vs Marseille · Home+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.35-0.53
MW27 · 2026-03-22 · vs Marseille · Away+1.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.97-0.67

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-8.3
xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (175 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.7 more goals than the 34.7 xGA opponents generated
-0.5
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 50.1 xG - clinical finishing
+0.4
Total CLS-8

Rank Per Signal

Where Lille ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Schedule Strength
1
18
-8.3
4
Injury Burden
1
18
-6.4
5
Discipline
1
18
-2.1
10
Finishing Luck
1
18
+0.4
11
Defensive Luck
1
18
-0.5
12
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+2
15
xPTS Gap
1
18
+6.9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Lille are right where they belong. Their CLS of -8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 4 opponents average 12th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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