Lille

Lille Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-18
Luck Index Score

Lille are getting roughly what they deserve. 47 points vs 43.05 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

47
Points
Expected: 43.05
42
Goals Scored
xG: 43.57
34
Goals Conceded
xGA: 33
4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 6 · 2025-09-28 · vs Lyon · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Lyon

One of those games where nothing went right. Lille generated 1.47 xG, comfortably more than the 0.52 their opponent managed. Lyon generated just 0.52 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Lille. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
13'T. Morton scores for Lyon (assist: N. Tagliafico)
1.47
xG Created
0.52
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2025-09-28 · vs Lyon · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.47-0.52
MW20 · 2026-02-01 · vs Lyon · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 0.5 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.53-0.54
MW18 · 2026-01-16 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.14-1.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Auxerre · Away+2.8 pts
Won 4-3 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 0.52-2.97
MW15 · 2025-12-05 · vs Marseille · Home+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.35-0.53
MW27 · 2026-03-22 · vs Marseille · Away+1.4 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.97-0.67

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-11
Injury Burden
High injury burden (179 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-9
xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 43.6 xG - wasting chances
-2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 33.0 xGA opponents generated
-2
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+2
Total Luck Index-18

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Lens
Lens
19W-2D-6L
+51Blessed
#2 in league
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
20W-3D-4L
+31Lucky
#1 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: improving|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -18, Lille are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. Recent form suggests the tide is already turning.

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