Lille

Lille CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-18
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Lille can't catch a break. 61 points when the data says they deserve closer to 57.29? 9 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. The numbers say better days are coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (-7.9 CLS impact). High injury burden (201 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

61
Points
Expected: 57.29
52
Goals Scored
xG: 55.46
37
Goals Conceded
xGA: 36.85
3.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 34 · 2026-05-17 · vs Auxerre · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Auxerre

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Lille generated 1.72 xG, comfortably more than the 0.54 their opponent managed. Auxerre generated just 0.54 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Lille. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
32'L. Sinayoko scores for Auxerre
90'L. Sinayoko scores for Auxerre (assist: G. Mensah)
1.72
xG Created
0.54
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW34 · 2026-05-17 · vs Auxerre · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.72-0.54
MW6 · 2025-09-28 · vs Lyon · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.47-0.52
MW32 · 2026-05-03 · vs Le Havre · Home-1.4 pts
Drew 1-1 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 1.55-0.14

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Auxerre · Away+2.8 pts
Won 4-3 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 0.52-2.97
MW15 · 2025-12-05 · vs Marseille · Home+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.35-0.53
MW33 · 2026-05-10 · vs Monaco · Away+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.39-0.37

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (201 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-7.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 55.5 xG - wasting chances
-7.8
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-7.7
xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+7.2
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1.8
Defensive Luck
Conceding almost exactly at the 36.9 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way
-1.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.1
Total CLS-18

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -18, Lille are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available