Season

Levante CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View La Liga standings →

-4

CLS Score

8th unluckiest of 20 in the La Liga

Levante are getting roughly what they deserve. 42 points vs 46.06 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 46.06

Goals Scored

xG: 50.05

Goals Conceded

xGA: 58.87

4.1

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Barcelona · at home

2-3

Lost at home against Barcelona

One of those games where nothing went right. Levante created 2.14 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Levante. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

15'I. Romero scores for Levante (assist: J. Toljan)

45'J. Morales scores for Levante

49'Pedri scores for Barcelona (assist: Lamine Yamal)

52'F. Torres scores for Barcelona (assist: Raphinha)

90'U. Elgezabal scores for Barcelona

2.14

xG Created

1.93

Opp. xG

-1.5

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Barcelona · Home-1.5 pts

Lost 2-3 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.14-1.93

MW3 · 2025-08-29 · vs Elche · Away-1.3 pts

Lost 0-2 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.01-1.11

MW23 · 2026-02-15 · vs Valencia · Home-1.3 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.63-0.68

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW17 · 2026-01-04 · vs Sevilla · Away+2.1 pts

Won 3-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.03-1.7

MW36 · 2026-05-12 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+2.0 pts

Won 3-2 away from 1.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.52-2.18

MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Oviedo · Home+1.3 pts

Won 4-2 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.

Score: 4-2 | xG: 1.82-1.34

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+8.5

xPTS Gap

4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-7.8

Finishing Luck

Scored 4 fewer goals than their 50.0 xG - wasting chances

-6.6

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (140 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+2.8

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-2.1

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+1.8

Defensive Luck

Conceding almost exactly at the 58.9 xGA opponents generate - no defensive luck either way

-0.6

Total CLS-4

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Levante are right where they belong. Their CLS of -4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

05-23

Real Betis

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