Levante

Levante CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

-14
CLS Score

Levante are getting roughly what they deserve. 29 points vs 35.27 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

29
Points
Expected: 35.27
35
Goals Scored
xG: 39.56
50
Goals Conceded
xGA: 52.51
6.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Barcelona · at home
2-3
Lost at home against Barcelona

One of those games where nothing went right. Levante created 2.14 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Levante. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
15'I. Romero scores for Levante (assist: J. Toljan)
45'J. Morales scores for Levante
49'Pedri scores for Barcelona (assist: Lamine Yamal)
52'F. Torres scores for Barcelona (assist: Raphinha)
90'U. Elgezabal scores for Barcelona
2.14
xG Created
1.93
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Barcelona · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.14-1.93
MW3 · 2025-08-29 · vs Elche · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.01-1.11
MW23 · 2026-02-15 · vs Valencia · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.63-0.68

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW17 · 2026-01-04 · vs Sevilla · Away+2.1 pts
Won 3-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.03-1.7
MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Oviedo · Home+1.3 pts
Won 4-2 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 4-2 | xG: 1.82-1.34
MW8 · 2025-10-04 · vs Oviedo · Away+1.2 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.94-1.31

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-11.1
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 fewer goals than their 39.6 xG - wasting chances
-6.4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (107 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.9
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 52.5 xGA opponents generated
+2.4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.1
Total CLS-14

Rank Per Signal

Where Levante ranks among La Liga teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

5
xPTS Gap
1
20
-11.1
5
Finishing Luck
1
20
-6.4
6
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
-3.7
11
Schedule Strength
1
20
-0.1
13
Defensive Luck
1
20
+2.4
15
Discipline
1
20
+1
15
Injury Burden
1
20
+3.9

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Valencia
Valencia
9W-8D-14L
-47Cursed
#13 in league

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Levante are right where they belong. Their CLS of -14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).

Next Matches
04-23
H
Sevilla
Bet
04-27
A
Espanyol
Bet
05-02
A
Villarreal
Bet
05-08
H
Osasuna
Bet
05-12
A
Celta Vigo
Bet