PAR

Paris Saint Germain CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+31
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+12.8 CLS impact). 7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

76
Points
Expected: 69.35
74
Goals Scored
xG: 72.1
29
Goals Conceded
xGA: 31.69
6.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 28 · 2026-04-19 · vs Lyon · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Lyon

A defeat that defied the run of play. Paris Saint Germain created 3.12 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Lyon generated just 0.62 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Paris Saint Germain. They got 0. That's 2.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'Endrick scores for Lyon (assist: A. Moreira)
18'A. Moreira scores for Lyon (assist: Endrick)
90'K. Kvaratskhelia scores for Paris Saint Germain (assist: F. Ruiz)
3.12
xG Created
0.62
Opp. xG
-2.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW28 · 2026-04-19 · vs Lyon · Home-2.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 3.1 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.12-0.62
MW22 · 2026-02-13 · vs Rennes · Away-2.4 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 3.6 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 3.58-1.36
MW14 · 2025-11-29 · vs Monaco · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.33-0.52

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW33 · 2026-05-13 · vs Lens · Away+2.4 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.6 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.22-2.87
MW20 · 2026-02-01 · vs Strasbourg · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.34-2.31
MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Lens · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.07-1.16

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+12.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 72.1 xG - clinical finishing
+7.2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+3.7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2.9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 31.7 xGA opponents generated
+2.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (159 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.1
Total CLS+31

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Paris Saint Germain are riding their luck at +31. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available