Paris Saint Germain Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+31

Luck Index Score

Paris Saint Germain have had fortune smiling on them. 6.68 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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Points

Expected: 56.32

Goals Scored

xG: 58.13

Goals Conceded

xGA: 23.28

6.7

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 22 · 2026-02-13 · vs Rennes · away

1-3

Lost away against Rennes

A defeat that defied the run of play. Paris Saint Germain created 3.58 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Rennes generated just 1.36 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Paris Saint Germain. They got 0. That's 2.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

34'M. Tamari scores for Rennes

69'E. Lepaul scores for Rennes (assist: S. Szymanski)

72'O. Dembele scores for Paris Saint Germain

81'B. Embolo scores for Rennes (assist: L. Blas)

3.58

xG Created

1.36

Opp. xG

-2.4

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW22 · 2026-02-13 · vs Rennes · Away-2.4 pts

Lost 1-3 away despite 3.6 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 3.58-1.36

MW14 · 2025-11-29 · vs Monaco · Away-2.0 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.33-0.52

MW25 · 2026-03-06 · vs Monaco · Home-1.6 pts

Lost 1-3 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.62-1.3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-02-01 · vs Strasbourg · Away+2.2 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.34-2.31

MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Lens · Home+1.7 pts

Won 2-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.07-1.16

MW18 · 2026-01-16 · vs Lille · Home+1.4 pts

Won 3-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.

Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.4-1.14

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

7 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+13

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 more goals than their 58.1 xG - clinical finishing

+10

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-5

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (115 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Defensive Luck

Conceded 0 more goals than the 23.3 xGA opponents generated

-1

Total Luck Index+30

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: stable|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Paris Saint Germain are riding their luck at +31. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

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