PAR

Paris Saint Germain CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+16
CLS Score

Paris Saint Germain have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

63
Points
Expected: 59
62
Goals Scored
xG: 61.41
25
Goals Conceded
xGA: 23.9
4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 28 · 2026-04-19 · vs Lyon · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Lyon

A defeat that defied the run of play. Paris Saint Germain created 3.12 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Lyon generated just 0.62 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Paris Saint Germain. They got 0. That's 2.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
6'Endrick scores for Lyon (assist: A. Moreira)
18'A. Moreira scores for Lyon (assist: Endrick)
90'K. Kvaratskhelia scores for Paris Saint Germain (assist: F. Ruiz)
3.12
xG Created
0.62
Opp. xG
-2.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW28 · 2026-04-19 · vs Lyon · Home-2.6 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 3.1 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.12-0.62
MW22 · 2026-02-13 · vs Rennes · Away-2.4 pts
Lost 1-3 away despite 3.6 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 3.58-1.36
MW14 · 2025-11-29 · vs Monaco · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.33-0.52

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-02-01 · vs Strasbourg · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.34-2.31
MW4 · 2025-09-14 · vs Lens · Home+1.7 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.07-1.16
MW18 · 2026-01-16 · vs Lille · Home+1.4 pts
Won 3-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.4-1.14

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+6.7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+4.8
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.6 more goals than their 61.4 xG - clinical finishing
+4.7
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-4.2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.6
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (116 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 23.9 xGA opponents generated
-2.6
Total CLS+16

Rank Per Signal

Where Paris Saint Germain ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

7
Defensive Luck
1
18
-2.6
7
Schedule Strength
1
18
-4.2
11
Injury Burden
1
18
+3
13
Finishing Luck
1
18
+4.7
14
xPTS Gap
1
18
+6.7
15
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+4.8
17
Discipline
1
18
+3.6

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: declining|10 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Paris Saint Germain are riding their luck at +16. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. Recent results already show signs of the correction.

Next Matches
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