PAR

Paris Saint Germain CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+1
CLS Score
9th luckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain are getting roughly what they deserve. 8 points vs 8.49 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

8
Points
Expected: 8.49
8
Goals Scored
xG: 7.08
7
Goals Conceded
xGA: 3.89
0.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-09-04 · vs Monaco · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Monaco

A defeat that defied the run of play. Paris Saint Germain created 2.32 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Monaco generated just 0.51 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Paris Saint Germain. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
31'Marquinhos scores for Paris Saint Germain (assist: K. Kvaratskhelia)
58'Nazinho scores for Monaco (assist: J. Teze)
72'S. Idumbo scores for Monaco (assist: A. Golovin)
2.32
xG Created
0.51
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-09-04 · vs Monaco · Home-2.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.32-0.51
MW1 · 2026-08-23 · vs Rennes · Away-1.2 pts
Drew 2-2 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.16-0.87
MW2 · 2026-08-28 · vs Lille · Away-0.5 pts
Drew 2-2 away. xG: 1.4-1.3.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.44-1.27

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Marseille · Away+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0-0
MW4 · 2026-09-13 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.16-1.24
MW2 · 2026-08-28 · vs Lille · Away+-0.5 pts
Drew 2-2 away. xG: 1.4-1.3.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.44-1.27

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 3.9 xGA opponents generated
-4.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.9 more goals than their 7.1 xG - clinical finishing
+3.1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (18 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+2.3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1
xPTS Gap
Almost exactly on expected points (0.5 xPTS gap)
-0.8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.8
Total CLS+1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Paris Saint Germain are right where they belong. Their CLS of +1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 11th in the league - a favorable stretch.

Next Matches
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