Lorient

Lorient CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+12
CLS Score

Lorient are getting roughly what they deserve. 41 points vs 39.58 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

41
Points
Expected: 39.58
40
Goals Scored
xG: 38.98
44
Goals Conceded
xGA: 40.84
1.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Angers · away
0-2
Lost away against Angers

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Lorient generated 1.99 xG, comfortably more than the 0.93 their opponent managed. Angers generated just 0.93 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Lorient. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
16'P. Peter scores for Angers
59'S. Cherif scores for Angers
1.99
xG Created
0.93
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Angers · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.99-0.93
MW29 · 2026-04-12 · vs Lyon · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.87-1.16
MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Auxerre · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.37-1.44

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Nantes · Home+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.52-1.42
MW19 · 2026-01-24 · vs Rennes · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.29-1.76
MW30 · 2026-04-18 · vs Marseille · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.33-1.65

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+11.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (172 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6.3
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 39.0 xG - clinical finishing
+5.8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 40.8 xGA opponents generated
-4.9
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4.4
xPTS Gap
1 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+2.2
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.7
Total CLS+12

Rank Per Signal

Where Lorient ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

3
Defensive Luck
1
18
-4.9
5
Injury Burden
1
18
-6.3
7
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
-0.7
9
xPTS Gap
1
18
+2.2
14
Finishing Luck
1
18
+5.8
17
Schedule Strength
1
18
+11.5
18
Discipline
1
18
+4.4

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Lorient are right where they belong. Their CLS of +12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 10th).

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