Lorient

Lorient Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+15

Luck Index Score

Lorient are getting roughly what they deserve. 37 points vs 35.02 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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37

Points

Expected: 35.02

37

Goals Scored

xG: 34.57

41

Goals Conceded

xGA: 37.08

2

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Angers · away

0-2

Lost away against Angers

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Lorient generated 1.99 xG, comfortably more than the 0.93 their opponent managed. Angers generated just 0.93 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Lorient. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

16'P. Peter scores for Angers

59'S. Cherif scores for Angers

1.99

xG Created

0.93

Opp. xG

-2.1

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Angers · Away-2.1 pts

Lost 0-2 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.99-0.93

MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Auxerre · Away-1.3 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.37-1.44

MW7 · 2025-10-03 · vs Paris FC · Away-1.3 pts

Lost 0-2 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.97-1.02

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Nantes · Home+2.3 pts

Won 2-1 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.52-1.42

MW19 · 2026-01-24 · vs Rennes · Away+1.9 pts

Won 2-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.29-1.76

MW18 · 2026-01-16 · vs Monaco · Away+1.5 pts

Won 3-1 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.38-1.25

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+13

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 more goals than their 34.6 xG - clinical finishing

+8

Defensive Luck

Conceded 4 more goals than the 37.1 xGA opponents generated

-6

Injury Burden

High injury burden (165 player-games missed) - key absences hurting

-6

xPTS Gap

2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+3

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+3

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-1

Total Luck Index+14

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Rennes

Nantes

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

No Significant Regression Expected

Last 5: stable|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

Why?

Lorient are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +15 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

04-05

H

Paris FC

04-12

A

Lyon

04-18

H

Marseille

04-26

H

Strasbourg

05-03

A

Paris Saint Germain

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