Lorient CURSD Luck Score
2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →
+8
CLS Score
4th luckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1
Lorient are getting roughly what they deserve. 5 points vs 6.22 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
5
Points
Expected: 6.22
5
Goals Scored
xG: 5.93
6
Goals Conceded
xGA: 6.96
1.2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Le Mans · away
1-2
Lost away against Le Mans
One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.4 points for Lorient. They got 0. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
3'A. Bourabaa scores for Le Mans (assist: R. Bamba)
57'H. Diallo scores for Le Mans (assist: L. Bretelle)
79'I. Jensen scores for Lorient (assist: A. Kouassi)
0.97
xG Created
0.92
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW5 · 2026-09-19 · vs Le Mans · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.97-0.92
MW2 · 2026-08-29 · vs Estac Troyes · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 1-2 home. xG: 1.1-2.1.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.15-2.12
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Nice · Away-0.5 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 1.3-1.1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.28-1.05
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW3 · 2026-09-05 · vs Lens · Away+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 away from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.6-1.24
MW4 · 2026-09-12 · vs Toulouse · Home+0.1 pts
Drew 2-2 home. xG: 0.9-1.6.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 0.93-1.63
MW1 · 2026-08-22 · vs Nice · Away+-0.5 pts
Drew 0-0 away. xG: 1.3-1.1.
Score: 0-0 | xG: 1.28-1.05
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (9 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.6
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4.5
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-2.1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1.8
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-0.6
Finishing Luck
Scored 0.9 fewer goals than their 5.9 xG - wasting chances
-0.5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1.0 fewer goals than the 7.0 xGA opponents generated
+0.3
Total CLS+8
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|33 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Lorient are right where they belong. Their CLS of +8 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 8th).