Mariners

Mariners CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 51 games played · View MLB standings →

-21
CLS Score
3rd unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Mariners deserve more. 24 wins vs 26.8 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-9.8 CLS impact). 3 fewer wins than their run differential predicts

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

24
Wins
Expected: 26.8
210
Runs Scored
199
Runs Allowed
2.8
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Guardians · at home
6-5
Lost at home against Guardians

Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Guardians. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.

5
Runs
6
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Guardians · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Guardians. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 5-6
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Angels · Away-0.4 pts
Fell 7-8 to Angels in 11 innings (7-11 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 7-8
Gm19 · 2026-04-15 · vs Padres · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Padres. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 6-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm51 · 2026-05-20 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against White Sox despite being outhit 11-7. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 5-4
Gm36 · 2026-05-04 · vs Braves · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Braves (8-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm28 · 2026-04-25 · vs Cardinals · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Cardinals 11-9 (19-14 H). Dominated with the bat (19 hits) and got the result to match.
Score: 11-9

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-9.8
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.313 vs xwOBA 0.327 - hard contact not converting into hits
-8.4
One-Run Game Record
7-12 in one-run games (37% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-5.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (10 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.7
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.87 vs xERA 4.04 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1.3
Total CLS-21

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|111 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -21, Mariners are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 20th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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