Mariners

Mariners CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 120 games played · View MLB standings →

-23
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Mariners deserve more. 56 wins vs 57.5 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Batting Luck (-20.5 CLS impact). wOBA 0.307 vs xwOBA 0.321 - hard contact not converting into hits

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

56
Wins
Expected: 57.5
463
Runs Scored
485
Runs Allowed
1.5
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Guardians · at home
6-5
Lost at home against Guardians

Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Guardians. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.

5
Runs
6
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Guardians · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Guardians. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 5-6
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Angels · Away-0.4 pts
Fell 7-8 to Angels in 11 innings (7-11 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 7-8
Gm19 · 2026-04-15 · vs Padres · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Padres. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 6-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm113 · 2026-08-02 · vs Twins · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Twins (14-11 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 7-6
Gm112 · 2026-08-01 · vs Twins · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Twins (7-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm108 · 2026-07-28 · vs Dodgers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Dodgers (10-13 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 7-6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.307 vs xwOBA 0.321 - hard contact not converting into hits
-20.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.56 vs xERA 3.83 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+7.2
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-5.4
One-Run Game Record
17-19 in one-run games (47% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-3.3
Injury Burden
High injury burden (10 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-1
Total CLS-23

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|42 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -23, Mariners are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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