Mariners

Mariners CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →

-20
CLS Score

Mariners deserve more. 10 wins vs 12.5 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

10
Wins
Expected: 12.5
94
Runs Scored
90
Runs Allowed
2.5
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Guardians · at home
5-6
Lost at home against Guardians

Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Guardians. A one-run game that could have gone either way.

5
Runs
6
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Guardians · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Guardians. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-6
MW10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Angels · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 7-8 in 11 innings to Angels. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 7-8
MW19 · 2026-04-15 · vs Padres · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Padres. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW15 · 2026-04-11 · vs Astros · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Astros 8-7. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 8-7
MW14 · 2026-04-10 · vs Astros · Home+0.3 pts
Beat Astros 9-6.
Score: 9-6
MW23 · 2026-04-19 · vs Rangers · Home+0.2 pts
Beat Rangers 5-2.
Score: 5-2

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-12.3
One-Run Game Record
2-6 in one-run games (25% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-5.7
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.316 vs xwOBA 0.333 - hard contact not converting into hits
-2.2
Injury Burden
High injury burden (10 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.46 vs xERA 3.49 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
-0.8
Total CLS-20

Rank Per Signal

Where Mariners ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
-12.3
5
One-Run Game Record
1
30
-5.7
6
Batting Luck
1
30
-2.2
9
Pitching Luck
1
30
-0.8
20
Injury Burden
1
30
+1

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|138 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -20, Mariners are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
04-21
H
Athletics
Bet
04-22
H
Athletics
Bet
04-24
A
Cardinals
Bet
04-25
A
Cardinals
Bet
04-26
A
Cardinals
Bet