Mariners CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 130 games played · View MLB standings →
-7
CLS Score
12th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Mariners are getting what their run differential deserves. 62 wins vs 60.1 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
62
Wins
Expected: 60.1
511
Runs Scored
555
Runs Allowed
1.9
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Guardians · at home
6-5
Lost at home against Guardians
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Guardians. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
5
Runs
6
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Guardians · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Guardians. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 5-6
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Angels · Away-0.4 pts
Fell 7-8 to Angels in 11 innings (7-11 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 7-8
Gm19 · 2026-04-15 · vs Padres · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Padres. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 6-7
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm130 · 2026-08-22 · vs Cubs · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Cubs (8-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm129 · 2026-08-21 · vs Cubs · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 10 innings against Cubs despite being outhit 12-8. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 6-5
Gm127 · 2026-08-19 · vs Brewers · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Brewers 7-5 (10-8 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.307 vs xwOBA 0.319 - hard contact not converting into hits
-19.7
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their run differential predicts
+7.9
One-Run Game Record
21-19 in one-run games (53% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+3.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.72 vs xERA 3.82 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+1.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (10 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-0.3
Total CLS-7
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|32 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Mariners are right where they belong. Their CLS of -7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 8th in the league - a tough run.