Mariners

Mariners CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 162 games played · View MLB standings →

-23
CLS Score
9th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Mariners deserve more. 76 wins vs 74.8 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Batting Luck (-15.8 CLS impact). wOBA 0.310 vs xwOBA 0.317 - hard contact not converting into hits

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

76
Wins
Expected: 74.8
664
Runs Scored
722
Runs Allowed
1.2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Guardians · at home
6-5
Lost at home against Guardians

Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Guardians. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.

5
Runs
6
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Guardians · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Guardians. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 5-6
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Angels · Away-0.4 pts
Fell 7-8 to Angels in 11 innings (7-11 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 7-8
Gm19 · 2026-04-15 · vs Padres · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Padres. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 6-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm158 · 2026-09-23 · vs Astros · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 10 innings against Astros (9-10 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 6-5
Gm154 · 2026-09-18 · vs Rockies · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Rockies despite being outhit 15-9. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 5-4
Gm147 · 2026-09-10 · vs Rangers · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Rangers (4-4 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.310 vs xwOBA 0.317 - hard contact not converting into hits
-15.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (22 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-13.4
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+4.8
One-Run Game Record
26-25 in one-run games (51% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+1.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.95 vs xERA 4.00 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
-0.2
Total CLS-23

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -23, Mariners are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available