Mariners

Mariners CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 90 games played · View MLB standings →

-16
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Mariners deserve more. 46 wins vs 47.7 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Batting Luck (-13.8 CLS impact). wOBA 0.307 vs xwOBA 0.321 - hard contact not converting into hits

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

46
Wins
Expected: 47.7
368
Runs Scored
345
Runs Allowed
1.7
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Guardians · at home
6-5
Lost at home against Guardians

Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Guardians. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.

5
Runs
6
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm3 · 2026-03-28 · vs Guardians · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 5-6 in 10 innings to Guardians. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 5-6
Gm10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Angels · Away-0.4 pts
Fell 7-8 to Angels in 11 innings (7-11 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 7-8
Gm19 · 2026-04-15 · vs Padres · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Padres. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 6-7

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm68 · 2026-06-09 · vs Orioles · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 10 innings against Orioles. Orioles left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5
Gm58 · 2026-05-29 · vs D-backs · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 10 innings against D-backs. D-backs left 13 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 7-6
Gm51 · 2026-05-20 · vs White Sox · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against White Sox despite being outhit 11-7. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.307 vs xwOBA 0.321 - hard contact not converting into hits
-13.8
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-6.9
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.59 vs xERA 3.87 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+5.4
One-Run Game Record
13-15 in one-run games (46% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-2.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+2
Total CLS-16

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|72 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -16, Mariners are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
07-05
H
Blue Jays
Bet
07-07
A
Marlins
Bet
07-08
A
Marlins
Bet
07-09
A
Marlins
Bet
07-10
A
Rays
Bet