Mets

Mets CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 52 games played · View MLB standings →

-38
CLS Score
1st unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Mets deserve more. 22 wins vs 23.6 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Batting Luck (-16.8 CLS impact). wOBA 0.294 vs xwOBA 0.318 - hard contact not converting into hits

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

22
Wins
Expected: 23.6
204
Runs Scored
217
Runs Allowed
1.6
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 27 · 2026-04-25 · vs Rockies · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Rockies

Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm27 · 2026-04-25 · vs Rockies · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm37 · 2026-05-05 · vs Rockies · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Pirates · Home-0.4 pts
Fell 3-4 to Pirates in 10 innings (9-7 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm48 · 2026-05-17 · vs Yankees · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 10 innings against Yankees. Yankees left 10 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 7-6
Gm33 · 2026-05-01 · vs Angels · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Angels (7-3 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm25 · 2026-04-23 · vs Twins · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Twins 10-8 (10-12 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 10-8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.294 vs xwOBA 0.318 - hard contact not converting into hits
-16.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (22 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-7.5
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-5.4
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.93 vs xERA 3.76 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-4.2
One-Run Game Record
6-9 in one-run games (40% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-4.1
Total CLS-38

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|110 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -38, Mets are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 18th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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