Mets

Mets CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 125 games played · View MLB standings →

-54
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Mets are cursed by baseball's most unforgiving luck signal: one-run games. 53 wins from 55.9 expected by Pythagorean run differential. They're outscoring opponents overall but losing the sequencing — tight games, bunched innings, BABIP variance. The regression is coming, and it usually comes fast. Top driver: Batting Luck (-20.3 CLS impact). wOBA 0.307 vs xwOBA 0.321 - hard contact not converting into hits

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

53
Wins
Expected: 55.9
507
Runs Scored
551
Runs Allowed
2.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 27 · 2026-04-25 · vs Rockies · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Rockies

Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm27 · 2026-04-25 · vs Rockies · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm37 · 2026-05-05 · vs Rockies · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm80 · 2026-06-22 · vs Cubs · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm93 · 2026-07-05 · vs Braves · Away+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Braves (12-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 10-9
Gm119 · 2026-08-05 · vs Guardians · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 in 10 innings against Guardians. Guardians left 15 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5
Gm94 · 2026-07-06 · vs Braves · Away+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 10 innings against Braves. Braves left 15 on base - survived their best chances. Read match report →
Score: 7-6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.307 vs xwOBA 0.321 - hard contact not converting into hits
-20.3
One-Run Game Record
11-20 in one-run games (35% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-17.1
Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-11.1
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.42 vs xERA 4.24 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-7.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+2.2
Total CLS-54

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|37 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Mets are deeply cursed at -54. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

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