Mets Luck Index
2026 Season · View MLB standings →
-13
Luck Index Score
Mets are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 2.7 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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3
Wins
Expected: 2.7
22
Runs Scored
Expected: 2.7
15
Runs Allowed
0.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-14
Pitching Luck
ERA 2.74 vs xERA 3.34 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+3
Diff Consistency
Run differential per game says they should be winning more
-2
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.328 vs xwOBA 0.329 - hard contact not converting into hits
+1
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index-12
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Mets are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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