Mets

Mets CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 166 games played · View MLB standings →

-50
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Mets are cursed by baseball's most unforgiving luck signal: one-run games. 74 wins from 77.7 expected by Pythagorean run differential. They're outscoring opponents overall but losing the sequencing — tight games, bunched innings, BABIP variance. The regression is coming, and it usually comes fast. Top driver: Batting Luck (-24.8 CLS impact). wOBA 0.309 vs xwOBA 0.321 - hard contact not converting into hits

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

74
Wins
Expected: 77.7
699
Runs Scored
731
Runs Allowed
3.7
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 27 · 2026-04-25 · vs Rockies · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Rockies

Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm27 · 2026-04-25 · vs Rockies · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm37 · 2026-05-05 · vs Rockies · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm80 · 2026-06-22 · vs Cubs · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm150 · 2026-09-09 · vs Marlins · Away+0.5 pts
Won 15-14 against Marlins despite being outhit 20-15. Got the breaks when it mattered.
Score: 15-14
Gm93 · 2026-07-05 · vs Braves · Away+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Braves (12-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 10-9
Gm149 · 2026-09-08 · vs Marlins · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Marlins 7-5 (8-10 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.309 vs xwOBA 0.321 - hard contact not converting into hits
-24.8
Pythagorean Delta
4 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-11.3
One-Run Game Record
17-23 in one-run games (43% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-10.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.30 vs xERA 4.18 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-6.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+3.5
Total CLS-50

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Mets are deeply cursed at -50. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available