Mets

Mets CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 93 games played · View MLB standings →

-53
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Mets are cursed by baseball's most unforgiving luck signal: one-run games. 37 wins from 38.6 expected by Pythagorean run differential. They're outscoring opponents overall but losing the sequencing — tight games, bunched innings, BABIP variance. The regression is coming, and it usually comes fast. Top driver: Batting Luck (-25.5 CLS impact). wOBA 0.301 vs xwOBA 0.324 - hard contact not converting into hits

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

37
Wins
Expected: 38.6
362
Runs Scored
423
Runs Allowed
1.6
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 27 · 2026-04-25 · vs Rockies · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Rockies

Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm27 · 2026-04-25 · vs Rockies · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm37 · 2026-05-05 · vs Rockies · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm80 · 2026-06-22 · vs Cubs · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm93 · 2026-07-05 · vs Braves · Away+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Braves (12-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 10-9
Gm71 · 2026-06-12 · vs Braves · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Braves 7-5 (8-9 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Gm70 · 2026-06-11 · vs Cardinals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Cardinals (10-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.301 vs xwOBA 0.324 - hard contact not converting into hits
-25.5
One-Run Game Record
8-16 in one-run games (33% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-13.9
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.22 vs xERA 3.97 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-8.7
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-7.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+2.2
Total CLS-53

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|69 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Mets are deeply cursed at -53. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports. Their next 5 opponents average 24th in the league - a favorable stretch. That eases the path to correction.

Next Matches
07-06
A
Braves
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07-07
H
Royals
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07-08
H
Royals
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07-09
H
Royals
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07-10
H
Red Sox
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