Mets

Mets CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 134 games played · View MLB standings →

-39
CLS Score
5th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Mets deserve more. 59 wins vs 60.9 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: Batting Luck (-22.9 CLS impact). wOBA 0.305 vs xwOBA 0.318 - hard contact not converting into hits

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

59
Wins
Expected: 60.9
545
Runs Scored
584
Runs Allowed
1.9
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 27 · 2026-04-25 · vs Rockies · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Rockies

Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm27 · 2026-04-25 · vs Rockies · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm37 · 2026-05-05 · vs Rockies · Away-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rockies 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm80 · 2026-06-22 · vs Cubs · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Cubs 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm93 · 2026-07-05 · vs Braves · Away+0.5 pts
Won 10-9 against Braves (12-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 10-9
Gm129 · 2026-08-16 · vs Nationals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Nationals (10-5 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm128 · 2026-08-15 · vs Nationals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Nationals (8-7 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Batting Luck
wOBA 0.305 vs xwOBA 0.318 - hard contact not converting into hits
-22.9
One-Run Game Record
14-20 in one-run games (41% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-11.4
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-6.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+3.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.29 vs xERA 4.29 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
-1.7
Total CLS-39

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|28 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -39, Mets are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 6th in the league - a tough run. A difficult run could slow the bounce-back.

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