Mets

Mets CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →

-23
CLS Score

Mets deserve more. 7 wins vs 8.1 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

7
Wins
Expected: 8.1
72
Runs Scored
97
Runs Allowed
1.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Pirates · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Pirates

Lost 3-4 in 10 innings to Pirates. A one-run game that could have gone either way.

3
Runs
4
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW3 · 2026-03-29 · vs Pirates · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 in 10 innings to Pirates. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 3-4
MW6 · 2026-04-01 · vs Cardinals · Away-0.2 pts
Lost 1-2 in 11 innings to Cardinals. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 1-2
MW15 · 2026-04-11 · vs Athletics · Home-0.2 pts
Blown out by Athletics 6-11. Tough day at the ballpark.
Score: 6-11

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2026-04-07 · vs D-backs · Home+0.4 pts
Edged D-backs 4-3 in 10 innings. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 4-3
MW1 · 2026-03-26 · vs Pirates · Home+0.3 pts
Beat Pirates 11-7.
Score: 11-7
MW10 · 2026-04-05 · vs Giants · Away+0.2 pts
Beat Giants 5-2.
Score: 5-2

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

One-Run Game Record
1-5 in one-run games (17% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-6.9
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-5.5
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.281 vs xwOBA 0.309 - hard contact not converting into hits
-4.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (20 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-3.3
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.32 vs xERA 3.85 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-2.9
Total CLS-23

Rank Per Signal

Where Mets ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
One-Run Game Record
1
30
-6.9
2
Injury Burden
1
30
-3.3
3
Batting Luck
1
30
-4.4
4
Pitching Luck
1
30
-2.9
7
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
-5.5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|140 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -23, Mets are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 1 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes. Their next 5 opponents average 20th in the league - a favorable stretch. That should help accelerate the correction.

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