Phillies CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 163 games played · View MLB standings →
+13
CLS Score
11th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Phillies are getting what their run differential deserves. 88 wins vs 82.6 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
88
Wins
Expected: 82.6
713
Runs Scored
698
Runs Allowed
5.4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Giants · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Giants
Shut out by Giants 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Giants · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Giants 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Rangers · Home-0.4 pts
Fell 4-5 to Rangers in 10 innings (5-10 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 4-5
Gm13 · 2026-04-10 · vs D-backs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to D-backs (7-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm130 · 2026-08-21 · vs Cardinals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 10 innings against Cardinals (11-11 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 7-6
Gm127 · 2026-08-17 · vs Marlins · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Marlins. Marlins left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5
Gm126 · 2026-08-16 · vs Twins · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Twins 7-5 (9-7 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.05 vs xERA 3.61 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-19.1
Pythagorean Delta
5 more wins than their run differential predicts
+18.1
One-Run Game Record
25-16 in one-run games (61% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+15.5
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.314 vs xwOBA 0.317 - hard contact not converting into hits
-8.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (5 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+7.1
Total CLS+13
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Phillies are right where they belong. Their CLS of +13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available