Phillies Luck Index
2026 Season · View MLB standings →
+5
Luck Index Score
Phillies are getting roughly what they deserve. 1 points vs 0.8 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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1
Wins
Expected: 0.8
14
Runs Scored
Expected: 0.8
29
Runs Allowed
0.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+25
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.86 vs xERA 3.36 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-20
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.315 vs xwOBA 0.324 - hard contact not converting into hits
-8
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+8
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index+5
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Phillies are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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