Phillies

Phillies CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 131 games played · View MLB standings →

+17
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Phillies have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: One-Run Game Record (+23.8 CLS impact). 23-11 in one-run games (68% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

72
Wins
Expected: 67.6
593
Runs Scored
568
Runs Allowed
4.4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Giants · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Giants

Shut out by Giants 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Giants · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Giants 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Rangers · Home-0.4 pts
Fell 4-5 to Rangers in 10 innings (5-10 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 4-5
Gm13 · 2026-04-10 · vs D-backs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to D-backs (7-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm130 · 2026-08-21 · vs Cardinals · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 in 10 innings against Cardinals (11-12 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 7-6
Gm127 · 2026-08-17 · vs Marlins · Home+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Marlins. Marlins left 11 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 6-5
Gm126 · 2026-08-16 · vs Twins · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Twins 7-5 (9-7 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 7-5

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

One-Run Game Record
23-11 in one-run games (68% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+23.8
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.11 vs xERA 3.61 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-20.8
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+17.8
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.316 vs xwOBA 0.318 - hard contact not converting into hits
-5.4
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.6
Total CLS+17

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|31 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Phillies are riding their luck at +17. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 21th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

Next Matches
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