Phillies CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 51 games played · View MLB standings →
0
CLS Score
16th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Phillies are getting what their run differential deserves. 25 wins vs 22.5 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
25
Wins
Expected: 22.5
209
Runs Scored
233
Runs Allowed
2.5
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Giants · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Giants
Shut out by Giants 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Giants · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Giants 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Rangers · Home-0.4 pts
Fell 4-5 to Rangers in 10 innings (5-10 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 4-5
Gm13 · 2026-04-10 · vs D-backs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to D-backs (7-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm49 · 2026-05-18 · vs Reds · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Reds (5-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm46 · 2026-05-15 · vs Pirates · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Pirates 11-9 (14-11 H). Solid win backed by the underlying numbers.
Score: 11-9
Gm33 · 2026-05-01 · vs Marlins · Away+0.4 pts
Won 6-5 against Marlins (9-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 6-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
3 more wins than their run differential predicts
0
One-Run Game Record
10-4 in one-run games (71% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
0
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.310 vs xwOBA 0.317 - hard contact not converting into hits
0
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.48 vs xERA 3.72 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
0
Injury Burden
High injury burden (12 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
0
Total CLS0
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|111 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Phillies are right where they belong. Their CLS of 0 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 6th in the league - a tough run.