Phillies CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB Season · View MLB standings →
-3
CLS Score
Phillies are getting what their run differential deserves. 8 wins vs 6.8 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC
Key Stats
8
Wins
Expected: 6.8
76
Runs Scored
118
Runs Allowed
1.2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Rangers · at home
4-5
Lost at home against Rangers
Lost 4-5 in 10 innings to Rangers. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
4
Runs
5
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Pts Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Rangers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 in 10 innings to Rangers. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-5
MW13 · 2026-04-10 · vs D-backs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to D-backs. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-5
MW15 · 2026-04-12 · vs D-backs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 3-4 to D-backs. A one-run game that could have gone either way.
Score: 3-4
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW14 · 2026-04-11 · vs D-backs · Home+0.4 pts
Edged D-backs 4-3. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 4-3
MW6 · 2026-04-01 · vs Nationals · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Nationals 6-5 in 10 innings. The slimmest of margins.
Score: 6-5
MW10 · 2026-04-06 · vs Giants · Away+0.3 pts
Beat Giants 6-4.
Score: 6-4
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.23 vs xERA 4.00 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-7
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+6.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (17 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-2.3
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.307 vs xwOBA 0.320 - hard contact not converting into hits
-2.1
One-Run Game Record
4-3 in one-run games (57% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+1.8
Total CLS-3
Rank Per Signal
Where Phillies ranks among MLB teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.
1-7
Pitching Luck
1
30
5-2.3
Injury Burden
1
30
7-2.1
Batting Luck
1
30
20+1.8
One-Run Game Record
1
30
23+6.6
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|140 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Phillies are right where they belong. Their CLS of -3 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 3th in the league - a tough run.