Phillies

Phillies CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 91 games played · View MLB standings →

+24
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 30 in the MLB

Phillies have had the baseball gods smiling slightly. A bit above where their run differential says they should be. Nothing outrageous, but the margins have mostly fallen their way. Top driver: One-Run Game Record (+20.9 CLS impact). 18-6 in one-run games (75% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

50
Wins
Expected: 45.7
402
Runs Scored
395
Runs Allowed
4.3
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Giants · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Giants

Shut out by Giants 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.

0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm30 · 2026-04-29 · vs Giants · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Giants 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm2 · 2026-03-28 · vs Rangers · Home-0.4 pts
Fell 4-5 to Rangers in 10 innings (5-10 H). Couldn't find the clutch hit in extras.
Score: 4-5
Gm13 · 2026-04-10 · vs D-backs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to D-backs (7-7 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm85 · 2026-06-28 · vs Mets · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Mets. Mets left 14 on base - survived their best chances.
Score: 5-4
Gm81 · 2026-06-24 · vs Nationals · Away+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Nationals (8-6 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm71 · 2026-06-13 · vs Brewers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 9-8 against Brewers (17-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 9-8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

One-Run Game Record
18-6 in one-run games (75% — above the historical .500 norm, riding sequencing luck)
+20.9
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their run differential predicts
+20.1
Pitching Luck
ERA 4.27 vs xERA 3.67 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-18.9
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+8.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.311 vs xwOBA 0.318 - hard contact not converting into hits
-6.7
Total CLS+24

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable|71 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Phillies are riding their luck at +24. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. Their next 5 opponents average 25th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

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