Yankees CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 104 games played · View MLB standings →
-12
CLS Score
10th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Yankees are getting what their run differential deserves. 56 wins vs 59.3 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
56
Wins
Expected: 59.3
475
Runs Scored
387
Runs Allowed
3.3
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 53 · 2026-05-23 · vs Rays · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Rays
Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm53 · 2026-05-23 · vs Rays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm65 · 2026-06-06 · vs Red Sox · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Red Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm100 · 2026-07-18 · vs Dodgers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Dodgers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm16 · 2026-04-13 · vs Angels · Home+0.5 pts
Won 11-10 against Angels (14-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 11-10
Gm80 · 2026-06-23 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Tigers (9-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm67 · 2026-06-08 · vs Guardians · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Guardians 7-5. 2 Guardians errors helped pad the margin.
Score: 7-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-15.4
One-Run Game Record
10-14 in one-run games (42% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-8.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (5 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+7.6
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.46 vs xERA 3.74 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+6.9
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.324 vs xwOBA 0.326 - hard contact not converting into hits
-2.5
Total CLS-12
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|58 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Yankees are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 8th in the league - a tough run.