Yankees CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 90 games played · View MLB standings →
-12
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB
Yankees are getting what their run differential deserves. 49 wins vs 52.6 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
49
Wins
Expected: 52.6
426
Runs Scored
343
Runs Allowed
3.6
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 53 · 2026-05-23 · vs Rays · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Rays
Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm53 · 2026-05-23 · vs Rays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm65 · 2026-06-06 · vs Red Sox · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Red Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm9 · 2026-04-05 · vs Marlins · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Marlins. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 6-7
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm16 · 2026-04-13 · vs Angels · Home+0.5 pts
Won 11-10 against Angels (14-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 11-10
Gm80 · 2026-06-23 · vs Tigers · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 against Tigers (9-8 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 4-3
Gm67 · 2026-06-08 · vs Guardians · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Guardians 7-5. 2 Guardians errors helped pad the margin.
Score: 7-5
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
4 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-14.2
One-Run Game Record
9-13 in one-run games (41% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-6.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (5 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+5.5
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.41 vs xERA 3.67 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+4.6
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.326 vs xwOBA 0.327 - hard contact not converting into hits
-1.3
Total CLS-12
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|72 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Yankees are right where they belong. Their CLS of -12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 7th in the league - a tough run.