Yankees

Yankees CURSD Luck Score

2026 MLB regular season · 50 games played · View MLB standings →

-16
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 30 in the MLB

Yankees deserve more. 30 wins vs 32.2 expected from their run differential. The bats and pitching are good enough, but the sequencing hasn't cooperated. The 162-game grind tends to even this out. Top driver: One-Run Game Record (-7.5 CLS impact). 5-11 in one-run games (31% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

30
Wins
Expected: 32.2
250
Runs Scored
181
Runs Allowed
2.2
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 9 · 2026-04-05 · vs Marlins · at home
7-6
Lost at home against Marlins

Lost 6-7 to Marlins. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.

6
Runs
7
Opp. Runs
-0.4
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm9 · 2026-04-05 · vs Marlins · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 6-7 to Marlins. Left 11 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 6-7
Gm14 · 2026-04-11 · vs Rays · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 in 10 innings to Rays. Left 12 runners on base - the opportunities were there but couldn't cash in.
Score: 4-5
Gm15 · 2026-04-12 · vs Rays · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 4-5 to Rays (7-11 H). A one-run margin where sequencing decided the outcome.
Score: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm16 · 2026-04-13 · vs Angels · Home+0.5 pts
Won 11-10 against Angels (14-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 11-10
Gm49 · 2026-05-19 · vs Blue Jays · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Blue Jays (6-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Gm48 · 2026-05-18 · vs Blue Jays · Home+0.4 pts
Won 7-6 against Blue Jays. 2 Blue Jays errors opened the door in a tight one.
Score: 7-6

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

One-Run Game Record
5-11 in one-run games (31% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-7.5
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-7.4
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.341 vs xwOBA 0.348 - hard contact not converting into hits
-2.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+2.4
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.38 vs xERA 3.43 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
-0.7
Total CLS-16

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|112 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -16, Yankees are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches
05-21
H
Blue Jays
Bet
05-22
H
Rays
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05-23
H
Rays
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05-24
H
Rays
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05-25
A
Royals
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