Yankees CURSD Luck Score
2026 MLB regular season · 133 games played · View MLB standings →
+1
CLS Score
18th luckiest of 30 in the MLB
Yankees are getting what their run differential deserves. 73 wins vs 75.1 expected — the baseball gods are neutral.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
73
Wins
Expected: 75.1
571
Runs Scored
476
Runs Allowed
2.1
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match
Game 53 · 2026-05-23 · vs Rays · at home
0-0
Lost at home against Rays
Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
0
Runs
0
Opp. Runs
-0.5
Win Equity Lost
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
Gm53 · 2026-05-23 · vs Rays · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Rays 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm65 · 2026-06-06 · vs Red Sox · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Red Sox 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
Gm100 · 2026-07-18 · vs Dodgers · Home-0.5 pts
Shut out by Dodgers 0-0. Held to 0 hits - offense went silent.
Score: 0-0
✦ Luckiest Matches
Gm16 · 2026-04-13 · vs Angels · Home+0.5 pts
Won 11-10 against Angels (14-12 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 11-10
Gm128 · 2026-08-16 · vs Blue Jays · Away+0.4 pts
Won 4-3 in 10 innings against Blue Jays (6-7 H). Found the walk-off moment in extras.
Score: 4-3
Gm121 · 2026-08-08 · vs Braves · Home+0.4 pts
Won 5-4 against Braves (8-9 H). Tight game that could have tipped either way.
Score: 5-4
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.08 vs xERA 3.63 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+10
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.318 vs xwOBA 0.323 - hard contact not converting into hits
-4.3
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-3.7
One-Run Game Record
16-19 in one-run games (46% — below the .500 norm where teams historically regress, bad sequencing luck)
-2.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (8 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
+1.8
Total CLS+1
Rivalry Check
How are the rivals doing?
Future Outlook
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|29 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Yankees are right where they belong. Their CLS of +1 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 13th).