New York Knicks

New York Knicks CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 83 games played · View NBA standings →

+68
CLS Score
1st luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Knicks are riding the coin flips. 53 wins from 49.3 expected — that 3.7-game gap is the kind of luck that doesn't last. When the close-game variance evens out, the record follows. Top driver: Close Game Record (+38.6 CLS impact). 75% win rate in 4 close games (+0.5 avg margin)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

53
Wins
Expected: 49.3
9549
Points For
9030
Points Against
3.7
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 34 · 2026-01-01 · vs Spurs · away
134-132
Lost away against Spurs

Lost 132-134 to San Antonio Spurs in a 2-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.

59.4%
Team eFG%
57.3%
Opp. eFG%
-0.6
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm34 · 2026-01-01 · vs Spurs · Away-0.6 pts
Lost 132-134 to San Antonio Spurs in a 2-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 132-134 | eFG%: 59.4-57.3
Gm67 · 2026-03-10 · vs LA Clippers · Away-0.6 pts
Lost to LA Clippers 118-126. Shot 59% eFG vs their 56%.
Score: 118-126 | eFG%: 58.9-55.9
Gm13 · 2025-11-18 · vs Heat · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 113-115 to Miami Heat shooting just 51% eFG (-5.2 below season avg), including 9/36 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 113-115 | eFG%: 50.5-51.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm18 · 2025-11-29 · vs Bucks · Home+0.9 pts
Stole it from Milwaukee Bucks 118-109 despite being outshot 54% to 65% eFG. Milwaukee Bucks were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 118-109 | eFG%: 53.6-64.8
Gm1 · 2025-10-22 · vs Cavaliers · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Cleveland Cavaliers 119-111 despite being outshot 51% to 58% eFG. Cleveland Cavaliers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 119-111 | eFG%: 51.2-57.6
Gm70 · 2026-03-16 · vs Warriors · Home+0.7 pts
Edged Golden State Warriors 110-107 in a 3-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 110-107 | eFG%: 52.4-57.3

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Game Record
75% win rate in 4 close games (+0.5 avg margin)
+38.6
Pythagorean Delta
4 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+13.6
Off 3P Luck
Made 41 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (37.3% vs league)
+6.7
Injury Burden
High injury burden (2 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+5.3
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 49 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (53.8% vs league)
+2.2
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.8% FT vs league average — 10 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+1.6
Off 2P Luck
Made 25 more 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (55.6% vs league)
+1.5
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 7 more threes than league-avg would predict (36.2% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-1.5
Total CLS+68

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +68, Knicks are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available