New York Knicks

New York Knicks Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-27
Luck Index Score

New York Knicks are getting roughly what they deserve. 50 points vs 53.7 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

50
Wins
Expected: 53.7
9121
Points For
Expected: 53.7
8614
Points Against
3.7
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 13 · 2025-11-18 · vs Miami Heat · away
113-115
Lost away against Miami Heat

One of those games where nothing went right. New York Knicks created 113 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 113 goals on an average day. They scored 113. The model valued this match at 0.4 points for New York Knicks. They got 0. That's 0.4 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

113
xG Created
115
Opp. xG
-0.4
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW13 · 2025-11-18 · vs Miami Heat · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 113-115 to Miami Heat. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 113-115 | xG: 113-115
MW34 · 2026-01-01 · vs San Antonio Spurs · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 132-134 to San Antonio Spurs. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 132-134 | xG: 132-134
MW55 · 2026-02-11 · vs Indiana Pacers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 134-137 to Indiana Pacers. A 3-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 134-137 | xG: 134-137

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW72 · 2026-03-20 · vs Brooklyn Nets · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Brooklyn Nets 93-92. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 93-92 | xG: 93-92
MW27 · 2025-12-19 · vs Indiana Pacers · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Indiana Pacers 114-113. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 114-113 | xG: 114-113
MW74 · 2026-03-24 · vs New Orleans Pelicans · Home+0.4 pts
Beat New Orleans Pelicans 121-116.
Score: 121-116 | xG: 121-116

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 fewer wins than their point differential predicts
-19
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-12
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 1.2% above expected from shot locations (55.7% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
+9
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-5
Total Luck Index-27

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets
18W-59L
-5Neutral
#29 in league
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics
52W-25L
-31Unlucky
#4 in league
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers
43W-34L
+33Lucky
#13 in league

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|3 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -27, New York Knicks are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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