Nantes

Nantes CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 33 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-48
CLS Score
2nd unluckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Nantes: 23 points from 37 expected, a gap of 14.3. Finishing has cost them: 7 fewer goals than their 36.4 xG should produce. Defensively, 4 more goals conceded than the 48.1 xGA opponents generated. 20 losses, 8 draws. The underlying numbers say this team is better than the table shows. Top driver: xPTS Gap (-28.2 CLS impact). 14 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

23
Points
Expected: 37.33
29
Goals Scored
xG: 36.42
52
Goals Conceded
xGA: 48.12
14.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Lorient · away
1-2
Lost away against Lorient

One of those games where nothing went right. Nantes generated 1.42 xG, comfortably more than the 0.52 their opponent managed. Lorient generated just 0.52 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Nantes. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
32'B. Dieng scores for Lorient (assist: T. Le Bris)
74'M. Abline scores for Nantes (assist: M. Kaba)
89'A. Kouassi scores for Lorient
1.42
xG Created
0.52
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Lorient · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.42-0.52
MW31 · 2026-04-26 · vs Rennes · Away-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.17-1.3
MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nice · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-4 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.59-1.12

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Auxerre · Home+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.48-0.68
MW9 · 2025-10-24 · vs Paris FC · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.9-1.19
MW23 · 2026-02-22 · vs Le Havre · Home+1.2 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.26-0.7

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
14 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-28.2
Finishing Luck
Scored 7 fewer goals than their 36.4 xG - wasting chances
-19
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-6.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 48.1 xGA opponents generated
-5.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (113 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3.1
Total CLS-48

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Nantes are deeply cursed at -48. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available