Nantes Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-25

Luck Index Score

Nantes are the definition of "we deserved more." With 17 points from 26.44 expected, they've been robbed of 9.44 points this season. 5 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 2 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.

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Points

Expected: 26.44

Goals Scored

xG: 25.59

Goals Conceded

xGA: 39.32

9.4

Points Below Expected

Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Lorient · away

1-2

Lost away against Lorient

One of those games where nothing went right. Nantes generated 1.42 xG, comfortably more than the 0.52 their opponent managed. Lorient generated just 0.52 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Nantes. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

32'B. Dieng scores for Lorient (assist: T. Le Bris)

74'M. Abline scores for Nantes (assist: M. Kaba)

89'A. Kouassi scores for Lorient

1.42

xG Created

0.52

Opp. xG

-2.0

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Lorient · Away-2.0 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.42-0.52

MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nice · Home-1.7 pts

Lost 1-4 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.59-1.12

MW25 · 2026-03-07 · vs Angers · Home-1.4 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.84-0.7

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Auxerre · Home+1.9 pts

Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.48-0.68

MW9 · 2025-10-24 · vs Paris FC · Away+1.9 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.9-1.19

MW23 · 2026-02-22 · vs Le Havre · Home+1.2 pts

Won 2-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.26-0.7

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

9 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve

-20

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (78 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+10

Shot Volume Gap

Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match

-9

Defensive Luck

Conceded 6 more goals than the 39.3 xGA opponents generated

-8

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

Finishing Luck

Scored 2 fewer goals than their 25.6 xG - wasting chances

-2

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

Total Luck Index-25

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Improvement Probable

Last 5: declining|12 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At -25, Nantes are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 9 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

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04-22

Paris Saint Germain

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04-26

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