Marseille

Marseille CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 34 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

+14
CLS Score
8th luckiest of 20 in the Ligue 1

Marseille are getting roughly what they deserve. 59 points vs 54.89 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

59
Points
Expected: 54.89
63
Goals Scored
xG: 61.66
45
Goals Conceded
xGA: 47.85
4.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 28 · 2026-04-05 · vs Monaco · away
1-2
Lost away against Monaco

One of those games where nothing went right. Marseille created 2.23 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Marseille. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
59'A. Golovin scores for Monaco (assist: J. Teze)
74'F. Balogun scores for Monaco
85'A. Gouiri scores for Marseille (assist: F. Medina)
2.23
xG Created
1.58
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW28 · 2026-04-05 · vs Monaco · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.23-1.58
MW23 · 2026-02-20 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.69-1.26
MW30 · 2026-04-18 · vs Lorient · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.65-1.33

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-01 · vs Auxerre · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.52-1.17
MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Monaco · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.79-2.21
MW19 · 2026-01-24 · vs Lens · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1-1.01

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+7.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 more goals than their 61.7 xG - clinical finishing
+5.9
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-4.3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 fewer goals than the 47.9 xGA opponents generated
+2.8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (140 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+0.5
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+0.2
Total CLS+14

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Marseille are right where they belong. Their CLS of +14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available