Marseille

Marseille CURSD Luck Score

2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Ligue 1 standings →

-5
CLS Score
7th unluckiest of 18 in the Ligue 1

Marseille are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 6.31 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

3
Points
Expected: 6.31
7
Goals Scored
xG: 6.02
8
Goals Conceded
xGA: 7.07
3.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Monaco · away
0-2
Lost away against Monaco

One of those games where nothing went right. Marseille generated 1.4 xG, comfortably more than the 1.72 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.2 points for Marseille. They got 0. That's 1.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
13'P. Brunner scores for Monaco (assist: A. Golovin)
53'P. Brunner scores for Monaco (assist: E. Dier)
1.4
xG Created
1.72
Opp. xG
-1.2
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2026-08-30 · vs Monaco · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.4-1.72
MW4 · 2026-09-11 · vs Rennes · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.34-1.88
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home-1.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0-0

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW1 · 2026-08-21 · vs Strasbourg · Home+0.5 pts
Won 4-0 home. xG: 1.9-0.2.
Score: 4-0 | xG: 1.86-0.18
MW3 · 2026-09-06 · vs Paris FC · Home+-0.5 pts
Lost 2-3 home. xG: 1.4-3.3.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.42-3.29
MW5 · 2026-09-20 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home+-1.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 0.0 xG. Expected 1.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0-0

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-6.2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (13 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3.7
Finishing Luck
Scored 1.0 more goals than their 6.0 xG - clinical finishing
+3.4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-2.7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.9 more goals than the 7.1 xGA opponents generated
-2.1
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+0.9
Total CLS-5

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|33 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Marseille are right where they belong. Their CLS of -5 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their next 5 opponents average 14th in the league - a favorable stretch.

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