Marseille

Marseille CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+16
CLS Score

Marseille have had fortune smiling on them. The CLS says they're getting more than they deserve based on underlying performance. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

52
Points
Expected: 49.53
58
Goals Scored
xG: 53.85
40
Goals Conceded
xGA: 39.34
2.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 28 · 2026-04-05 · vs Monaco · away
1-2
Lost away against Monaco

One of those games where nothing went right. Marseille created 2.23 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Marseille. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
59'A. Golovin scores for Monaco (assist: J. Teze)
74'F. Balogun scores for Monaco
85'A. Gouiri scores for Marseille (assist: F. Medina)
2.23
xG Created
1.58
Opp. xG
-1.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW28 · 2026-04-05 · vs Monaco · Away-1.8 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.23-1.58
MW23 · 2026-02-20 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.69-1.26
MW30 · 2026-04-18 · vs Lorient · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.65-1.33

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-01 · vs Auxerre · Away+2.2 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.52-1.17
MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Monaco · Home+1.8 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.79-2.21
MW19 · 2026-01-24 · vs Lens · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1-1.01

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 53.9 xG - clinical finishing
+13.9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (101 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+5.5
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3.4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3.1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0.7 more goals than the 39.3 xGA opponents generated
-2.1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1.2
Total CLS+16

Rank Per Signal

Where Marseille ranks among Ligue 1 teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

1
Discipline
1
18
-3.1
8
Defensive Luck
1
18
-2.1
8
Schedule Strength
1
18
-3.4
10
xPTS Gap
1
18
+4
11
Shot Volume Gap
1
18
+1.2
13
Injury Burden
1
18
+5.5
17
Finishing Luck
1
18
+13.9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: declining|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Marseille are riding their luck at +16. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. Recent results already show signs of the correction. Their next 4 opponents average 13th in the league - a favorable stretch. An easier run might delay the dip, but the numbers say it's coming.

Next Matches
04-26
H
Nice
Bet
05-01
A
Nantes
Bet
05-10
A
Le Havre
Bet
05-17
H
Rennes
Bet