Marseille Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

+36

Luck Index Score

Marseille have had fortune smiling on them. 5.45 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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Points

Expected: 43.55

Goals Scored

xG: 46.86

Goals Conceded

xGA: 35.95

5.5

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 14 · 2025-11-29 · vs Toulouse · at home

2-2

Drew at home against Toulouse

A draw that felt like a loss. Marseille generated 1.8 xG, comfortably more than the 0.7 their opponent managed. Toulouse generated just 0.7 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Marseille. They got 1. That's 1.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

10'L. Ajorque scores for Stade Brestois 29

29'L. Ajorque scores for Stade Brestois 29 (assist: H. Magnetti)

1.8

xG Created

0.7

Opp. xG

-1.1

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-02-20 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away-1.7 pts

Lost 0-2 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.69-1.26

MW1 · 2025-08-15 · vs Rennes · Away-1.5 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 1.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.71-1.47

MW15 · 2025-12-05 · vs Lille · Away-1.4 pts

Lost 0-1 away despite 0.5 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.53-0.35

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-01 · vs Auxerre · Away+2.2 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.52-1.17

MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Monaco · Home+1.8 pts

Won 1-0 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.79-2.21

MW19 · 2026-01-24 · vs Lens · Home+1.7 pts

Won 3-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 1-1.01

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck

Scored 7 more goals than their 46.9 xG - clinical finishing

+21

xPTS Gap

5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+10

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (95 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

-3

Schedule Strength

Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw

-3

Defensive Luck

Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 36.0 xGA opponents generated

Total Luck Index+35

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: stable|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Marseille are riding their luck at +36. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

04-05

Monaco

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Lorient

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04-26

Nice

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05-03

Nantes

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