New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans Pelicans CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-30
CLS Score
8th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Pelicans can't seem to close games. 26 wins when their point differential predicts closer to 32.8. Not catastrophic, but the margins have consistently fallen the wrong way. Expect positive regression. Top driver: Pythagorean Delta (-21.1 CLS impact). 7 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

26
Wins
Expected: 32.8
9473
Points For
9842
Points Against
6.8
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 41 · 2026-01-11 · vs Magic · away
128-118
Lost away against Magic

Lost 118-128 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 66% to 59% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

66.3%
Team eFG%
59.1%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm41 · 2026-01-11 · vs Magic · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 118-128 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 66% to 59% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 118-128 | eFG%: 66.3-59.1
Gm56 · 2026-02-12 · vs Heat · Home-0.7 pts
Lost to Miami Heat 111-123. Shot 52% eFG vs their 48%.
Score: 111-123 | eFG%: 51.6-48
Gm22 · 2025-12-03 · vs Timberwolves · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Minnesota Timberwolves 142-149. Shot 62% eFG vs their 60%.
Score: 142-149 | eFG%: 61.5-59.6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm18 · 2025-11-25 · vs Bulls · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Chicago Bulls 143-130 despite being outshot 57% to 65% eFG. Chicago Bulls were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 143-130 | eFG%: 57.2-64.6
Gm47 · 2026-01-24 · vs Grizzlies · Away+0.7 pts
Stole it from Memphis Grizzlies 133-127 despite being outshot 53% to 59% eFG. Memphis Grizzlies were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 133-127 | eFG%: 53-58.7
Gm43 · 2026-01-15 · vs Nets · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Brooklyn Nets 116-113 despite being outshot 50% to 56% eFG. Brooklyn Nets were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 116-113 | eFG%: 50-55.8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
7 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-21.1
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 31 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.0% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+6.1
Off 3P Luck
Made 34 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (34.7% vs league)
-4.8
Off 2P Luck
Made 91 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.1% vs league)
-4.8
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 117 more 2s than league-avg would predict (57.8% vs league)
-4.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (6 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-3.4
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.4% FT vs league average — 18 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+2.6
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS-30

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -30, Pelicans are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 7 wins below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available