New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans Pelicans CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+2
CLS Score
7th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Pelicans are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 1 wins vs 0.4 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

1
Wins
Expected: 0.4
116
Points For
110
Points Against
0.6
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 41 · 2026-01-11 · vs Magic · away
128-118
Lost away against Magic

Lost 118-128 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 66% to 59% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

66.3%
Team eFG%
59.1%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm41 · 2026-01-11 · vs Magic · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 118-128 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 66% to 59% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 118-128 | eFG%: 66.3-59.1
Gm56 · 2026-02-12 · vs Heat · Home-0.7 pts
Lost to Miami Heat 111-123. Shot 52% eFG vs their 48%.
Score: 111-123 | eFG%: 51.6-48
Gm22 · 2025-12-03 · vs Timberwolves · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Minnesota Timberwolves 142-149. Shot 62% eFG vs their 60%.
Score: 142-149 | eFG%: 61.5-59.6

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm18 · 2025-11-25 · vs Bulls · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Chicago Bulls 143-130 despite being outshot 57% to 65% eFG. Chicago Bulls were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 143-130 | eFG%: 57.2-64.6
Gm47 · 2026-01-24 · vs Grizzlies · Away+0.7 pts
Stole it from Memphis Grizzlies 133-127 despite being outshot 53% to 59% eFG. Memphis Grizzlies were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 133-127 | eFG%: 53-58.7
Gm43 · 2026-01-15 · vs Nets · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Brooklyn Nets 116-113 despite being outshot 50% to 56% eFG. Brooklyn Nets were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 116-113 | eFG%: 50-55.8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
No injury data available
+1.5
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+1.2
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 31 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.0% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+0.8
Off 3P Luck
Made 34 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (34.7% vs league)
-0.7
Off 2P Luck
Made 91 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.1% vs league)
-0.6
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 117 more 2s than league-avg would predict (57.8% vs league)
-0.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.4% FT vs league average — 18 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+0.4
Close Game Record
Not enough close game data
0
Total CLS+2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Pelicans are right where they belong. Their CLS of +2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available