New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans Pelicans CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-45
CLS Score

New Orleans Pelicans have been systematically robbed. 26 wins from 32.8 expected — a 6.8-game gap between what their point differential says they deserve and what the standings show. 56 losses, a meaningful slice of them stolen in tight fourth quarters. The Pythagorean math is brutal on them: regression is almost certainly coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

26
Wins
Expected: 32.8
9473
Points For
9842
Points Against
6.8
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 41 · 2026-01-11 · vs Orlando Magic · away
118-128
Lost away against Orlando Magic

Lost 118-128 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 66% to 59% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

66.3%
Team eFG%
59.1%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW41 · 2026-01-11 · vs Orlando Magic · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 118-128 to Orlando Magic despite winning the efficiency battle 66% to 59% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 118-128 | eFG%: 66.3-59.1
MW56 · 2026-02-12 · vs Miami Heat · Home-0.7 pts
Lost to Miami Heat 111-123. Shot 52% eFG vs their 48%.
Score: 111-123 | eFG%: 51.6-48
MW22 · 2025-12-03 · vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Minnesota Timberwolves 142-149. Shot 62% eFG vs their 60%.
Score: 142-149 | eFG%: 61.5-59.6

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW18 · 2025-11-25 · vs Chicago Bulls · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from Chicago Bulls 143-130 despite being outshot 57% to 65% eFG. Chicago Bulls were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 143-130 | eFG%: 57.2-64.6
MW47 · 2026-01-24 · vs Memphis Grizzlies · Away+0.7 pts
Stole it from Memphis Grizzlies 133-127 despite being outshot 53% to 59% eFG. Memphis Grizzlies were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 133-127 | eFG%: 53-58.7
MW43 · 2026-01-15 · vs Brooklyn Nets · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Brooklyn Nets 116-113 despite being outshot 50% to 56% eFG. Brooklyn Nets were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 116-113 | eFG%: 50-55.8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
7 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-49.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (125 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+4.5
Total CLS-45

Rank Per Signal

Where New Orleans Pelicans ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
-49.5
24
Injury Burden
1
30
+4.5

Tank Watch

Competing (0/100)

New Orleans Pelicans have been consistently poor all season, but there's no second-half decline. Bad, not tanking.

First Half
9-32
0.2% win rate
Second Half
17-24
0.4% win rate
Win rate decline
-0pp
Close game collapse
0pp
Point differential decline
-6.1pts/game
Late losing streaks
1 losing streak
Roster turnover (2H)
11%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

New Orleans Pelicans are deeply cursed at -45. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available