Houston Rockets

Houston Rockets CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+24
CLS Score

Houston Rockets have had fortune on their side in close games. The CLS says they're winning more than their underlying performance warrants. Not extreme, but don't bet on the streak lasting.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

52
Wins
Expected: 49.6
9449
Points For
9021
Points Against
2.4
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 26 · 2025-12-22 · vs Sacramento Kings · away
124-125
Lost away against Sacramento Kings

Lost 124-125 to Sacramento Kings in a 1-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.

56.4%
Team eFG%
52.6%
Opp. eFG%
-0.7
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2025-12-22 · vs Sacramento Kings · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 124-125 to Sacramento Kings in a 1-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 124-125 | eFG%: 56.4-52.6
MW67 · 2026-03-17 · vs Los Angeles Lakers · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Los Angeles Lakers 92-100. Shot 51% eFG vs their 49%.
Score: 92-100 | eFG%: 51.3-48.8
MW1 · 2025-10-21 · vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 124-125 to Oklahoma City Thunder shooting just 50% eFG (-4.4 below season avg), including 11/39 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 124-125 | eFG%: 50-50.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW48 · 2026-02-03 · vs Indiana Pacers · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Indiana Pacers 118-114 despite being outshot 50% to 56% eFG. Indiana Pacers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 118-114 | eFG%: 50-56.3
MW22 · 2025-12-12 · vs LA Clippers · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from LA Clippers 115-113 despite being outshot 53% to 59% eFG. LA Clippers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 115-113 | eFG%: 52.7-59
MW60 · 2026-03-03 · vs Washington Wizards · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Washington Wizards 123-118. Shot 54% eFG vs their 59%.
Score: 123-118 | eFG%: 53.8-58.8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+17.6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (100 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+6.4
Total CLS+24

Rank Per Signal

Where Houston Rockets ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

21
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
+17.6
27
Injury Burden
1
30
+6.4

Tank Watch

Competing (0/100)

Houston Rockets have been consistently poor all season, but there's no second-half decline. Bad, not tanking.

First Half
26-15
0.6% win rate
Second Half
26-16
0.6% win rate
Win rate decline
0pp
Close game collapse
-0pp
Point differential decline
2.7pts/game
Late losing streaks
0 losing streaks
Roster turnover (2H)
6%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Houston Rockets are riding their luck at +24. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available