Houston Rockets

Houston Rockets CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+21
CLS Score
10th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Rockets have had fortune on their side in close games. The CLS says they're winning more than their underlying performance warrants. Not extreme, but don't bet on the streak lasting. Top driver: Opp FT Luck (+6.3 CLS impact). Opponents shot 75.6% FT vs league average — 49 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

52
Wins
Expected: 50
9449
Points For
9021
Points Against
2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 26 · 2025-12-22 · vs Kings · away
125-124
Lost away against Kings

Lost 124-125 to Sacramento Kings in a 1-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.

56.4%
Team eFG%
52.6%
Opp. eFG%
-0.7
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm26 · 2025-12-22 · vs Kings · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 124-125 to Sacramento Kings in a 1-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 124-125 | eFG%: 56.4-52.6
Gm67 · 2026-03-17 · vs Lakers · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Los Angeles Lakers 92-100. Shot 51% eFG vs their 49%.
Score: 92-100 | eFG%: 51.3-48.8
Gm1 · 2025-10-21 · vs Thunder · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 124-125 to Oklahoma City Thunder shooting just 50% eFG (-4.5 below season avg), including 11/39 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 124-125 | eFG%: 50-50.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm48 · 2026-02-03 · vs Pacers · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Indiana Pacers 118-114 despite being outshot 50% to 56% eFG. Indiana Pacers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 118-114 | eFG%: 50-56.3
Gm22 · 2025-12-12 · vs LA Clippers · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from LA Clippers 115-113 despite being outshot 53% to 59% eFG. LA Clippers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 115-113 | eFG%: 52.7-59
Gm60 · 2026-03-03 · vs Wizards · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Washington Wizards 123-118. Shot 54% eFG vs their 59%.
Score: 123-118 | eFG%: 53.8-58.8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 75.6% FT vs league average — 49 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+6.3
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+5.8
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 26 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.1% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+4.5
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 73 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (53.3% vs league)
+2.5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (9 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+2.4
Off 2P Luck
Made 47 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (54.0% vs league)
-2.2
Off 3P Luck
Made 12 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (36.4% vs league)
+1.5
Close Game Record
50% win rate in 10 close games (+0.0 avg margin)
+0.2
Total CLS+21

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Dip in Form Probable
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Rockets are riding their luck at +21. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available