Houston Rockets

Houston Rockets CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

+9
CLS Score
13th luckiest of 30 in the NBA

Rockets are getting roughly what the data says they deserve. 52 wins vs 50 expected — neutral territory across the model's 8 signals (Pythagorean, close-game record, three-point variance, two-point variance, opponent free throws, and shot quality on both ends).

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

52
Wins
Expected: 50
9449
Points For
9021
Points Against
2
Wins Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 26 · 2025-12-22 · vs Kings · away
125-124
Lost away against Kings

Lost 124-125 to Sacramento Kings in a 1-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.

56.4%
Team eFG%
52.6%
Opp. eFG%
-0.7
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm26 · 2025-12-22 · vs Kings · Away-0.7 pts
Lost 124-125 to Sacramento Kings in a 1-point game. Shooting was roughly neutral on both sides; the game turned on the final possessions.
Score: 124-125 | eFG%: 56.4-52.6
Gm67 · 2026-03-17 · vs Lakers · Home-0.6 pts
Lost to Los Angeles Lakers 92-100. Shot 51% eFG vs their 49%.
Score: 92-100 | eFG%: 51.3-48.8
Gm1 · 2025-10-21 · vs Thunder · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 124-125 to Oklahoma City Thunder shooting just 50% eFG (-4.5 below season avg), including 11/39 from three. Couldn't buy a bucket.
Score: 124-125 | eFG%: 50-50.5

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm48 · 2026-02-03 · vs Pacers · Away+0.8 pts
Stole it from Indiana Pacers 118-114 despite being outshot 50% to 56% eFG. Indiana Pacers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 118-114 | eFG%: 50-56.3
Gm22 · 2025-12-12 · vs LA Clippers · Home+0.8 pts
Stole it from LA Clippers 115-113 despite being outshot 53% to 59% eFG. LA Clippers were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 115-113 | eFG%: 52.7-59
Gm60 · 2026-03-03 · vs Wizards · Away+0.7 pts
Beat Washington Wizards 123-118. Shot 54% eFG vs their 59%.
Score: 123-118 | eFG%: 53.8-58.8

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Close Game Record
0% win rate in 2 close games (-4.0 avg margin)
-15.6
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 75.6% FT vs league average — 49 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+7.1
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
+6.6
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 26 fewer threes than league-avg would predict (35.1% vs league) — defensive 3P variance in their favour
+5.1
Injury Burden
High injury burden (3 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
+3.7
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 73 fewer 2s than league-avg would predict (53.3% vs league)
+2.8
Off 2P Luck
Made 47 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (54.0% vs league)
-2.4
Off 3P Luck
Made 12 more threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (36.4% vs league)
+1.7
Total CLS+9

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Rockets are right where they belong. Their CLS of +9 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available