Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis Grizzlies CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-50
CLS Score
🏳️ Full Tank

Memphis Grizzlies have been systematically robbed. 25 wins from 30.3 expected — a 5.3-game gap between what their point differential says they deserve and what the standings show. 57 losses, a meaningful slice of them stolen in tight fourth quarters. The Pythagorean math is brutal on them: regression is almost certainly coming.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

25
Wins
Expected: 30.3
9403
Points For
9896
Points Against
5.3
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 33 · 2025-12-31 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · at home
136-139
Lost at home against Philadelphia 76ers

Lost 136-139 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 61% to 53% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

61.4%
Team eFG%
52.7%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW33 · 2025-12-31 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 136-139 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 61% to 53% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 136-139 | eFG%: 61.4-52.7
MW40 · 2026-01-15 · vs Orlando Magic · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Orlando Magic 111-118. Shot 56% eFG vs their 51%.
Score: 111-118 | eFG%: 56-51.1
MW43 · 2026-01-24 · vs New Orleans Pelicans · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 127-133 to New Orleans Pelicans despite winning the efficiency battle 59% to 53% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 127-133 | eFG%: 58.7-53

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW74 · 2026-03-29 · vs Chicago Bulls · Home+0.7 pts
Edged Chicago Bulls 125-124 in a 1-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 125-124 | eFG%: 52.3-56.1
MW68 · 2026-03-19 · vs Denver Nuggets · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Denver Nuggets 125-118 despite being outshot 51% to 56% eFG. Denver Nuggets were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 125-118 | eFG%: 51-56.1
MW39 · 2026-01-11 · vs Brooklyn Nets · Home+0.6 pts
Beat Brooklyn Nets 103-98. Shot 48% eFG vs their 51%.
Score: 103-98 | eFG%: 48.3-51.1

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
5 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-37.8
Injury Burden
High injury burden (333 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-12.2
Total CLS-50

Rank Per Signal

Where Memphis Grizzlies ranks among NBA teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

2
Injury Burden
1
30
-12.2
6
Pythagorean Delta
1
30
-37.8

Tank Watch

Full Tank (75/100)

Memphis Grizzlies are showing strong signs of tanking. Performance has cratered in the second half.

First Half
18-23
0.4% win rate
Second Half
7-34
0.2% win rate
Win rate decline
0pp
Close game collapse
0pp
Point differential decline
10.1pts/game
Late losing streaks
3 losing streaks
Roster turnover (2H)
45%
View full NBA Tank Score rankings →

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Memphis Grizzlies are deeply cursed at -50. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available