Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis Grizzlies CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 NBA regular season · 82 games played · View NBA standings →

-48
CLS Score
4th unluckiest of 30 in the NBA

Grizzlies have been systematically robbed. 25 wins from 30.3 expected — a 5.3-game gap between what their point differential says they deserve and what the standings show. 57 losses, a meaningful slice of them stolen in tight fourth quarters. The Pythagorean math is brutal on them: regression is almost certainly coming. Top driver: Injury Burden (-18.9 CLS impact). High injury burden (39 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Key Stats

25
Wins
Expected: 30.3
9403
Points For
9896
Points Against
5.3
Wins Below Expected
Unlucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Game 33 · 2025-12-31 · vs 76ers · at home
139-136
Lost at home against 76ers

Lost 136-139 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 61% to 53% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.

61.4%
Team eFG%
52.7%
Opp. eFG%
-0.8
Win Equity Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

Gm33 · 2025-12-31 · vs 76ers · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 136-139 to Philadelphia 76ers despite winning the efficiency battle 61% to 53% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 136-139 | eFG%: 61.4-52.7
Gm40 · 2026-01-15 · vs Magic · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Orlando Magic 111-118. Shot 56% eFG vs their 51%.
Score: 111-118 | eFG%: 56-51.1
Gm43 · 2026-01-24 · vs Pelicans · Home-0.7 pts
Lost 127-133 to New Orleans Pelicans despite winning the efficiency battle 59% to 53% eFG. The better-shooting team didn't get the result.
Score: 127-133 | eFG%: 58.7-53

✦ Luckiest Matches

Gm74 · 2026-03-29 · vs Bulls · Home+0.7 pts
Edged Chicago Bulls 125-124 in a 1-point game. Both teams shot near their season averages; this one came down to the final possessions.
Score: 125-124 | eFG%: 52.3-56.1
Gm68 · 2026-03-19 · vs Nuggets · Home+0.7 pts
Stole it from Denver Nuggets 125-118 despite being outshot 51% to 56% eFG. Denver Nuggets were the more efficient team but couldn't close it out.
Score: 125-118 | eFG%: 51-56.1
Gm39 · 2026-01-11 · vs Nets · Home+0.6 pts
Beat Brooklyn Nets 103-98. Shot 48% eFG vs their 51%.
Score: 103-98 | eFG%: 48.3-51.1

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (39 player-games missed) - stars and rotation pieces sidelined
-18.9
Pythagorean Delta
5 fewer wins than their point differential predicts (garbage-time-adjusted)
-14.4
Close Game Record
33% win rate in 3 close games (-2.3 avg margin)
-5.1
Def 2P Luck
Opponents made 101 more 2s than league-avg would predict (57.4% vs league)
-3.5
Off 3P Luck
Made 23 fewer threes than league-avg 3P% on their volume would predict (35.3% vs league)
-2.9
Off 2P Luck
Made 58 fewer 2s than league-avg 2P% on their volume predicts (53.6% vs league)
-2.7
Def 3P Luck
Opponents made 14 more threes than league-avg would predict (36.4% vs league) — opponents are heating up against them
-2.4
Opp FT Luck
Opponents shot 77.5% FT vs league average — 15 misses in their favour (pure luck, defense has no control)
+1.9
Total CLS-48

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Grizzlies are deeply cursed at -48. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available