Season

Aston Villa CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 season · 37 matches played · View Premier League standings →

+56

CLS Score

2nd luckiest of 20 in the Premier League

Aston Villa have been living on borrowed time. 62 points from 46.73 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock. Top driver: xPTS Gap (+23.5 CLS impact). 15 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Points

Expected: 46.73

Goals Scored

xG: 46.02

Goals Conceded

xGA: 52.56

15.3

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match

Matchweek 24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Brentford · at home

0-1

Lost at home against Brentford

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Aston Villa created 2.4 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Brentford created almost nothing - just 0.38 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Aston Villa. They got 0. That's 2.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

42'Kevin Schade (Brentford) - Red Card

45'D. Ouattara scores for Brentford

2.4

xG Created

0.38

Opp. xG

-2.6

Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Brentford · Home-2.6 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 0. Read match report →

Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.4-0.38

MW22 · 2026-01-18 · vs Everton · Home-2.1 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.44-0.51

MW28 · 2026-02-27 · vs Wolves · Away-1.5 pts

Lost 0-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.06-0.92

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Newcastle · Away+2.2 pts

Won 2-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.16-2.18

MW18 · 2025-12-27 · vs Chelsea · Away+2.2 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.19-2.14

MW8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Tottenham · Away+2.1 pts

Won 2-1 away from 0.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.32-0.75

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

15 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

+23.5

Finishing Luck

Scored 8 more goals than their 46.0 xG - clinical finishing

+11.6

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

Defensive Luck

Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 52.6 xGA opponents generated

+5.1

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

+3.8

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (136 player-games missed) - squad depth available

+3.7

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+2.3

Total CLS+56

Rivalry Check

How are the rivals doing?

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook

Results Expected to Decline

Last 5: stable|1 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

At +56, Aston Villa are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

05-24

Manchester City

Bet

Projected Finish

Projected Position

of 20

No change from current 4

Projected Points

from 62 now (+1 remaining)

Pace

1.26

expected pts per game · 1 games left

Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 1 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.

Fantasy Outlook

FPL Watch

Most-Owned Attackers

Live FPL data · 6h cache

Aston Villa has scored 8 goals above their xG total — finishing has been hot. Their attackers' fantasy returns are riding above expected output.

Player	Price	Owned	Goals	xG	Δ	Verdict
Rogers MID	£7.3	21.0%	10	6.8	+3.2	Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Watkins FWD	£8.7	13.4%	14	14.2	-0.2	Finishing in line with xG
Tielemans MID	£5.9	0.7%	0	1.1	-1.1	Underperforming xG — buy the dip
McGinn MID	£5.3	0.7%	5	2.9	+2.1	Overperforming xG — sell candidate
Onana MID	£4.8	0.6%	2	1.7	+0.3	Finishing in line with xG

Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).