Aston Villa CURSD Luck Score
2026-27 season · 5 matches played · View Premier League standings →
Aston Villa are getting roughly what they deserve. 4 points vs 3.8 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
Data last updated May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Key Stats
CLS Evolution
How the CLS has changed throughout the season
One of those games where nothing went right. Nottingham Forest created almost nothing - just 0 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 1.0 points for Aston Villa. They got 0. That's 1.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Individual Games
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
Core Contributing Factors
What's Driving the CLS
Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.
Future Outlook
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsAston Villa are right where they belong. Their CLS of -2 means results match performance. What you see is what you get. Their remaining schedule is moderate (opponents average 9th).
Projected Finish
Projection blends 40% actual points-per-game with 60% expected points-per-game over the 33 games remaining. Heavier weight on xPTS because it strips out finishing variance, defensive luck, and the close-game randomness CURSD already tracks.
Fantasy Outlook
Most-Owned Attackers
| Player | Price | Owned | Goals | xG | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watkins FWD | £7.8 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Finishing in line with xG |
| McGinn MID | £5.4 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | Finishing in line with xG |
| N.Jackson FWD | £6.5 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | Finishing in line with xG |
| George Hemmings MID | £4.5 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | Finishing in line with xG |
| Buendía MID | £5.9 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | Finishing in line with xG |
Δ = goals − xG. Positive = overperforming finishing (often unsustainable). Negative = underperforming (often a buy).