Aston Villa

Aston Villa CURSD Luck Score

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+58
CLS Score

Aston Villa have been living on borrowed time. 58 points from 42.21 expected? They're riding a wave of fortune that the data says won't last. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

Data last updated Oct 20, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Key Stats

58
Points
Expected: 42.21
47
Goals Scored
xG: 41.67
41
Goals Conceded
xGA: 47.18
15.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

CLS Evolution

How the CLS has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match
Matchweek 24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Brentford · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Brentford

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Aston Villa created 2.4 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Brentford created almost nothing - just 0.38 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Aston Villa. They got 0. That's 2.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
42'Kevin Schade (Brentford) - Red Card
45'D. Ouattara scores for Brentford
2.4
xG Created
0.38
Opp. xG
-2.6
Pts Lost

Individual Games

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Brentford · Home-2.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.4-0.38
MW22 · 2026-01-18 · vs Everton · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.44-0.51
MW28 · 2026-02-27 · vs Wolves · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.06-0.92

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Newcastle · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.16-2.18
MW18 · 2025-12-27 · vs Chelsea · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.19-2.14
MW8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Tottenham · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.32-0.75

Core Contributing Factors

What's Driving the CLS

Each factor's contribution to the CLS score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
16 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+26.9
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 more goals than their 41.7 xG - clinical finishing
+9.4
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+7.2
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 47.2 xGA opponents generated
+6.7
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (117 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4.5
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4.2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-0.9
Total CLS+58

Rank Per Signal

Where Aston Villa ranks among Premier League teams on each signal. #1 = most cursed.

11
Schedule Strength
1
20
-0.9
15
Injury Burden
1
20
+4.5
16
Finishing Luck
1
20
+9.4
17
Defensive Luck
1
20
+6.7
19
Shot Volume Gap
1
20
+7.2
20
xPTS Gap
1
20
+26.9
20
Discipline
1
20
+4.2

Future Outlook

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +58, Aston Villa are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

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